Did the Surge Work?
By Patrick Cockburn
CounterPunch
"Will Iraq disintegrate if the United States withdraws its combat troops?.....
Will Iraq be able to hold together as US troops depart?......
Does this mean that the Surge worked and the US has won in Iraq?.....
Is al-Qaida in Iraq finished?......
Surely life in Baghdad and the rest of Iraq is getting better?......
Where does Iran stand in all this?
This is the most misunderstood element in the Iraq crisis. The present Iraqi government had two main allies: The US and Iran. Their dispute is over who should have influence over that government. Iran has played a crucial role in the success of the so-called Surge. The Iraqi army fought poorly against the militiamen of the Mehdi Army in March and April. It was Iran that mediated a ceasefire on the Baghdad government’s terms. It was Iran which pressured the Mehdi Army leader Muqtada al-Sadr to call his men off the streets. A prime reason why Iraq is not going to disintegrate is that Iran does not want it to.
So the departure of US troops from Iraq will not mean a renewed civil war?
No. The main civil war is over. The Shia won and the Sunni lost. But the Sunni minority in Baghdad look vulnerable without American protection. The Iraqi army is increasingly moving against the Sunni Awakening Movement in Anbar and elsewhere."
By Patrick Cockburn
CounterPunch
"Will Iraq disintegrate if the United States withdraws its combat troops?.....
Will Iraq be able to hold together as US troops depart?......
Does this mean that the Surge worked and the US has won in Iraq?.....
Is al-Qaida in Iraq finished?......
Surely life in Baghdad and the rest of Iraq is getting better?......
Where does Iran stand in all this?
This is the most misunderstood element in the Iraq crisis. The present Iraqi government had two main allies: The US and Iran. Their dispute is over who should have influence over that government. Iran has played a crucial role in the success of the so-called Surge. The Iraqi army fought poorly against the militiamen of the Mehdi Army in March and April. It was Iran that mediated a ceasefire on the Baghdad government’s terms. It was Iran which pressured the Mehdi Army leader Muqtada al-Sadr to call his men off the streets. A prime reason why Iraq is not going to disintegrate is that Iran does not want it to.
So the departure of US troops from Iraq will not mean a renewed civil war?
No. The main civil war is over. The Shia won and the Sunni lost. But the Sunni minority in Baghdad look vulnerable without American protection. The Iraqi army is increasingly moving against the Sunni Awakening Movement in Anbar and elsewhere."
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