Lebanon's ticking timebomb

With the impending special tribunal announcements, is Lebanon destined for further instability and chaos?

Matthew Cassel

(Matthew Cassel is a journalist and photographer from Chicago currently based in Beirut. He is also assistant editor of the online journal The Electronic Intifada. )
Al-Jazeera

"...... The collapse did not come as a complete shock for Lebanese, who are used to their government operating in a limited capacity in recent years, but who have also anticipated drastic changes as the STL readies to release its indictments.

Since the beginning, the STL has been mired in controversy further dividing an already unstable and war-torn country where justice is as foreign as the prosecutor leading the tribunal. The "false witnesses" whose testimony the UN's investigation initially used to go after Syria and its allies later turned out to be a scam, and this past weekend Lebanon's New TV aired explosive audio recordings of a 2006 meeting between Hariri and one of the "witnesses."

Confirmation

Hariri, who had previously denied meeting the "witnesses," has since confirmed the tapes' authenticity, which have caused further embarrassment to the prime minister. This, in addition to Hezbollah claims that the STL is an Israeli plot, has caused many Lebanese to be increasingly sceptical of the entire investigation.

Now, with the indictments already delivered to the pre-trial judge, Lebanon is in a state of panic as the country speculates about what repercussions the supposed hunt for justice will have on the country.....

Moving away from sectarian politics

Lebanon's inability to lead its own path to justice stems from its inability to form a democratic government. As long as the sectarian political model remains in place, political forces will forever be pinned against one another as they attempt to secure what's in their sect's best interest, and not that of their nation.

A Lebanese government made up of its people and not its sects, is exactly what many independent voices have increasingly been calling for in recent years. Such a government could then decide for itself whether or not it wishes to pursue justice not only for the killing of Rafiq Hariri, but the numerous other political figures and ordinary civilians who have been killed in recent years.

However, with politicians already engaged in a war of words coupled with external meddling in the country, such a scenario seems like mere fantasy. With the STL's indictments expected to be made public soon, Lebanese civilians - who comprise the overwhelming majority of victims from the civil war and Israel's attacks on the country - are left to sit and wait, while greater powers decide their fate."