Army may be calling the shots as Syria slides towards civil war or an intervention by Turkey
A Good Comment
Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 12 June 2011
"....Such accounts of mutiny and defections recall similar stories told in other towns, including Homs and Daraa in the south. Writing in Foreign Policy, Syria expert and author Robin Yassin-Kassab noted that, despite the fact that most anti-regime demonstrations remained non-violent, soldiers were undoubtedly being killed.
"Firm evidence is lost in the fog, but there are reliable and consistent reports, backed by YouTube videos, of mutinous soldiers being shot by security forces," Yassin-Kassab said.
The fact that Assad has not been seen in public for weeks, that his army commander brother, Maher, is leading the offensives in the north, and the fact that the president seems to be hiding from the world – Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, says he is refusing to take his calls – all suggests Assad may not only have lost the initiative but has also lost control of the reins of power....
Two disturbing scenarios are now coming into closer focus. One is the prospect of civil war, possibly along sectarian lines. The other is the possibility of direct Turkish intervention in a country with which Ankara has a long history of disputes over territory, water and other matters.
Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a key but very recent ally, is increasingly publicly critical, decrying the "savagery" and "inhumane" behaviour of the Syrian armed forces. He is said to be angry that promises made to him personally by Assad at the onset of the protests have been broken. And he is facing a growing refugee crisis on Turkish territory at a sensitive political moment.
Yassin-Kassab said: "Turkish military intervention remains unlikely but if the estimated 4,000 refugees who have crossed the border thus far swell to a greater flood, particularly if Kurds begin crossing in large numbers, Turkey may decide to create a safe haven in north or north-eastern Syria.
"This territory could become Syria's Benghazi, potentially a home for a more local and credible opposition than the exile-dominated one that recently met in Antalya, Turkey, and a destination to which soldiers and their families could defect. A council of defected officers might then organise attacks on the regime from the safe haven."
If that happened, then Turkey, a Nato member, would be entitled to request help from the US and other alliance members. Which is how, despite all assurances to the contrary, Britain could yet end up at war in Syria."
A Good Comment
Simon Tisdall
guardian.co.uk, Sunday 12 June 2011
"....Such accounts of mutiny and defections recall similar stories told in other towns, including Homs and Daraa in the south. Writing in Foreign Policy, Syria expert and author Robin Yassin-Kassab noted that, despite the fact that most anti-regime demonstrations remained non-violent, soldiers were undoubtedly being killed.
"Firm evidence is lost in the fog, but there are reliable and consistent reports, backed by YouTube videos, of mutinous soldiers being shot by security forces," Yassin-Kassab said.
The fact that Assad has not been seen in public for weeks, that his army commander brother, Maher, is leading the offensives in the north, and the fact that the president seems to be hiding from the world – Ban Ki-moon, the UN secretary general, says he is refusing to take his calls – all suggests Assad may not only have lost the initiative but has also lost control of the reins of power....
Two disturbing scenarios are now coming into closer focus. One is the prospect of civil war, possibly along sectarian lines. The other is the possibility of direct Turkish intervention in a country with which Ankara has a long history of disputes over territory, water and other matters.
Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a key but very recent ally, is increasingly publicly critical, decrying the "savagery" and "inhumane" behaviour of the Syrian armed forces. He is said to be angry that promises made to him personally by Assad at the onset of the protests have been broken. And he is facing a growing refugee crisis on Turkish territory at a sensitive political moment.
Yassin-Kassab said: "Turkish military intervention remains unlikely but if the estimated 4,000 refugees who have crossed the border thus far swell to a greater flood, particularly if Kurds begin crossing in large numbers, Turkey may decide to create a safe haven in north or north-eastern Syria.
"This territory could become Syria's Benghazi, potentially a home for a more local and credible opposition than the exile-dominated one that recently met in Antalya, Turkey, and a destination to which soldiers and their families could defect. A council of defected officers might then organise attacks on the regime from the safe haven."
If that happened, then Turkey, a Nato member, would be entitled to request help from the US and other alliance members. Which is how, despite all assurances to the contrary, Britain could yet end up at war in Syria."
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