Four years since the uprising that led to Gaddafi’s downfall, Libya is racked by fighting, factionalism and political polarisation
Ian Black, Middle East editor
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What’s the story?
Four years since the 17 February 2011 Benghazi uprising that led to the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya is wracked by violence, factionalism and political polarisation – and by the growing menace of jihadi extremism. Two rival governments, parliaments, prime ministers and military forces claim legitimacy. One side is the Islamist-dominated Libya Dawn coalition in Tripoli, the capital. The other camp, Dignity, which is recognised internationally, is based in Tobruk and Bayda. Hundreds of rival militias exist across the country. In recent months the homegrown fighters of Ansar al-Sharia have been challenged by the Islamic State (Isis), who released a video showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians.
Oil production, the source of most state revenues, has declined massively. Cash is running out and basic services are facing collapse as the financial situation deteriorates. Hopes for change generated by the Arab spring and the demise of Gaddafi’s dictatorship have faded into despair and dysfunction.
Efforts are under way by the UN to broker a ceasefire and create a broad unity government. But consensus and compromise are in short supply in a country where tribes and local interests matter hugely and national institutions are weak or non-existent – the legacy of 42 years of personalised dictatorship. Europeans who backed Nato’s controversial “light-footprint” intervention are now worried about a failed state to their south, but the international community as a whole is still more preoccupied by the larger problems posed by Syria and Iraq. In the words of one expert: “the extent of Libya’s descent into the abyss has been shocking.” Others say its situation is best described as a state of “armed politics” rather than outright civil war.
How did this happen?
Following Gaddafi’s defeat by Libyan rebels and a Nato-led coalition, and his murder in October 2011, the opposition National Transitional council (NTC) pledged to create a pluralist and democratic state. In August 2012, the NTC handed power to an elected General National Congress. Prime minister Abderaheem el-Keeb formed an interim government tasked to prepare a new constitution and fresh elections. Ali Zeidan, who followed him, was briefly kidnapped a year later.
Powerful militias failed to disband and state institutions did not develop. The June 2014 election saw Islamist candidates perform badly. Islamist fighters, allied with tribal and Misratan forces under the Dawn banner, then defeated their rivals from Zintan in western Libya and took over Tripoli. Most foreign embassies then abandoned the capital, though Italy, the former colonial power hung on until mid-February 2015.
The sense of being united in the face of a common enemy has long gone. Dawn is showing signs of fragmenting, as is Dignity, dominated by the retired General Khalifa Haftar, an old army comrade of Gaddafi who sees his mission as fighting terrorism. Haftar, a highly divisive figure, is backed by Egypt and the UAE, both enemies of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been supported by Qatar. The Tobruk government, which commands a small air force, has the upper hand militarily. It hopes to complete the recapture of Benghazi, Libya’s second city, from Ansar al-Sharia, and continue westwards to secure Sirte and liberate most of the country’s oil installations. Some 2,500 people have been killed since last summer.
The issues
UN-brokered talks on a ceasefire and the creation of a unity government began in mid-January. International mediators say they detect greater readiness for compromise but Libyans question the credentials of those taking part in negotiations and their ability to make any agreement stick. Armed groups are more powerful than civilian representatives and can act as spoilers in pursuit of their own interests. Notions of leadership and representation are nebulous.
Terrorism is a source of rapidly growing alarm. In Libya, unlike in Yemen, there is no single state military or security body that can cooperate with the US in fighting jihadi extremists. The Dawn camp complains that the issue is being exploited by the Dignity side to smear them. Dawn in turn portrays its enemies as counter-revolutionaries. Still, the escalating jihadi challenge may help bridge the gap. “The growing threat of the Islamic State in western and southern Libya could serve as unifying factor, given that Libyans in both of the broader competing camps recognise that a divided Libya stands no chance of handling such threats,” argues Mohamed Eljarh, an Atlantic council fellow. Egyptian military action may also continue. The proliferation of weapons from Gaddafi’s looted arsenals is a related concern both nationally and regionally, with arms ending up as far afield as Sinai, Syria and Mali.
If agreement can be reached on a ceasefire, some form of international monitoring will be required. France and Italy have signalled a readiness to help. Libya’s long desert borders will require controlling by an effective force. A new government will need to consider a mechanism to promote truth and reconciliation. Controversy over the political exclusion law that disqualifies Gaddafi-era officials from public office – parallel to the de-Baathification law in Iraq after 2003 – highlights the difficulties ahead for a country which had 1.2 million state employees in 2010.
Libya’s dangerous divisions are crippling it. “The country’s institutions have become little more than political footballs in the battle between the two opposing camps,” argues analyst Alison Pargeter. “The central bank, the National Oil corporation, the judiciary, the presidency of the army and the official religious establishment are all at the centre of the ongoing competition for power between the two dominant currents and have been pulled in both directions and forced to make choices between the two.” The bottom line is that Libya’s transition from dictatorship to a functioning, stable – and peaceful – democracy has barely begun.
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