Al-Jazeera Video: حديث الثورة.. بروز "التيار الثالث" في مصر

"ناقشت الحلقة بروز التيار الثالث في مظاهرات جمعة "الشعب يسترد ثورته" وهتافهم بـ"لا للفلول ولا للإخوان ولا للعسكر" في تطور بارز في مسار الثورة.
تقديم: محمود مراد
الضيوف:محمود عباس، مختار كامل إبراهيم، محمد القدوسي
"

Syria Analysis: Giving Up is Worse than Carrying On

By Maysaloon

"When Cameron said yesterday that the Iraq invasion had poisoned the “well of public opinion” regarding action in Syria, he was right. But it had also retrospectively poisoned another well, that of the invasion of Afghanistan and the toppling of the Taleban. Most people today forget that public sentiment had little sympathy for the Taleban government of Afghanistan in 2001 and little time for conspiracy theorists demanding hard evidence that Osama Bin Laden had carried out the 9/11 attacks in New York. What happened in the British Parliament is what should have happened when Bush said he wanted to invade Iraq in 2003, it should not have happened yesterday.

Old Lessons: Past the Shadow of Iraq

The world needs to move beyond the Iraq invasion paradigm when speaking about humanitarian intervention, because a lot had been learnt during the post-cold war years, especially in Bosnia and Kosovo. One of the key lessons that should never have been forgotten was never to rely on the Russians. In spite of overwhelming evidence of mass murder, concentration camps and ethnic cleansing, the Russians backed their Serb allies to the hilt and foiled every attempt to bring the killing to a halt. Again, we should remember that this was a pre-9/11 world where the United States was not as demonized as it is now, and where public discourse was about how to address these new issues in a post-Cold War world. They mistakenly believed that Russia would be a friend, and they were wrong. Today Putin's Russia has played the spoiler for every attempt to bring Assad to heel, exactly as they did in the Balkans, and as with the Balkans, it took a decision to act independently and decisively in favour of what is right. If Russia wants to stop this then they can send their armies to Syria to fight the Americans, something they have already said that they will not do. In effect the US has called Putin's bluff.

The Dilemma in Doing what is Right

Now that the United States will act, the question is what will they do, and how will this impact the conflict in Syria? We know that the action is going to be limited and that the scope is to punish Assad in such a way as to deter him from using these chemical weapons again. Can they do it? Perhaps, but there is also the risk that the Assad regime will capitalise on the deaths of civilians, especially since his regime will be hiding behind them. There are tens of thousands of Syrian prisoners of conscience in Assad's prisons, and rumours amongst Syrians are already spreading that he has placed these prisoners in key locations that might be attacked. This, however, will unlikely  factor much in the decisions of the United States. Obama, as Commander in Chief of his country's armed forces, will likely have already taken the heavy decision that what is at stake here is the lives of tens of thousands more people who are at risk of death by chemical weapons and that it is intolerable to allow this precedent to take root. As terrifying as this prospect is, he is right. Syrians cannot afford to continue being gassed by Assad's nerve agents and other chemical weapons. The catastrophic death toll inflicted on them since the start of the revolution alone shows that the cost of not punishing Assad is far more terrifying.

What Does this Mean for Syria?

But if the action is going to be limited to stopping Assad from using chemical weapons, that still leaves him in charge of a killing machine that is raining death on the country. My view is that the blow inflicted on him will be just enough to give the rebels the strategic advantage to accept political negotiations – with the West hoping this would lead to the revival of the much ridiculed Geneva 2 talks. The limited scope of this action will also show the Russians that the West means business, and shake Assad's confidence just enough to make him realise that he is already on borrowed time. Whilst far from ideal, this might be the best deal that Syrians will get from the United States. This means that the Syrian opposition must drop its traditional stubbornness and be prepared to appear ready for concessions even if they know Assad will never sit and negotiate. 

In spite of the West's hopes of reviving the political process, there is a deep rooted understanding amongst many Syrians that negotiations are a dead end. It is perfectly clear at this stage that the return of peace to Syria, however imperfectly, will destroy the Assad regime faster than any munitions, and for that this peace will never be realised until his last bunker is surrounded and destroyed. Syrians on the ground, especially those who have borne the brunt of Assad's killing machine, know they are dealing with an ideology that will never surrender and never negotiate. They have already tasted his wrath in the eighties, and will now do everything in their power to ensure that neither he nor any other Alawite will rule over them again. The Alawites have been just as much a victim of Assadism as their Sunni brethren, but unfortunately the sectarian cat is out of the bag and it is doubtful we will see an end to this in our generation's life time. 

In spite of Assad's propaganda, this revolution is not a second round in his father's vendetta with the Muslim Brotherhood, and whilst the opposition is overwhelmingly Sunni, many are not involved with the Brotherhood and will therefore not be as ideologically biased against Alawites or other minorities. This part of the opposition have been marginalised by both Assad's allies and the Western media, but in the wake of an albeit slow and painful victory over Assad, it is these people who will have a better chance at leading national reconciliation. 

A Final Word on Iran and Hezbullah

Whilst Russia will not go to war over Syria, Iran and Hezbullah will. If they fight within Syria then they will be the opposition's problem, but if they retaliate against the United States or Israel, then they will be somebody else's. There is not much more to say about this from a Syrian perspective. Of particular note is that Hezbullah is not trumpeting its presence in Syria the way it was before the fall of Qusair in Homs. A few months ago the conquest of Qusair was being portrayed by Hezbullah as a turning of the tide and a fulfilment of their oath of loyalty for Assad, in appreciation of his significant support. Today that victory seems a distant memory. In fact the only thing their presence in Syria tells us is that Assad does not have the means to defeat the Syrian rebels alone and his use of chemical weapons near Damascus could also be another sign of this desperation. It is here that a punitive strikes against Assad for his war crimes could be the straw that breaks the camel's back – unless they are done recklessly and without regard for civilian life. Amnesty International have already published an excellent set of guidelines and decision makers in Washington and the Pentagon would do well to study these and apply them. 

What the US strikes against Assad are definitely not is a silver magic bullet for the opposition, but with proper planning and wise, creative politiking it could just be enough to crack through this bloody and vicious stalemate. There is still no guarantee that they will even be the ones governing if and when Assad's fingers are pried off of Syria. The only thing that is certain is that whilst the road ahead for all Syrians remains extremely dangerous and difficult, the only thing worse than carrying on would be to give up."

Al-Jazeera Video:سيناريوات متعددة للضربة المقبلة على سوريا

Hit Him Hard

Present the proof, deliver an ultimatum and punish Bashar Assad for his use of chemical weapons

".....
Because doing nothing carries risks that are even bigger (see article). If the West tolerates such a blatant war crime, Mr Assad will feel even freer to use chemical weapons. He had after all stepped across Mr Obama’s “red line” several times by using these weapons on a smaller scale—and found that Mr Obama and his allies blinked. An American threat, especially over WMD, must count for something: it is hard to see how Mr Obama can eat his words without the superpower losing credibility with the likes of Iran and North Korea.
And America’s cautiousness has cost lives. A year ago, this newspaper argued for military intervention: not for Western boots on the ground, but for the vigorous arming of the rebels, the creation of humanitarian corridors, the imposition of no-fly zones and, if Mr Assad ignored them, an aerial attack on his air-defence system and heavy weaponry. At the time Mr Assad’s regime was reeling, most of the rebels were relatively moderate, the death toll was less than half the current total and the conflict had yet to spill into other countries. Some of Mr Obama’s advisers also urged him to arm the rebels; distracted by his election, he rebuffed them—and now faces, as he was repeatedly warned, a much harder choice........

So Mr Obama should focus on the third option: a more limited punishment of such severity that Mr Assad is deterred from ever using WMD again. Hitting the chemical stockpiles themselves runs the risk both of poisoning more civilians and of the chemicals falling into the wrong hands. Far better for a week of missiles to rain down on the dictator’s “command-and-control” centres, including his palaces. By doing this, Mr Obama would certainly help the rebels, though probably not enough to overturn the regime. With luck, well-calibrated strikes might scare Mr Assad towards the negotiating table....

And before the missiles are fired, Mr Obama must give Mr Assad one last chance: a clear ultimatum to hand over his chemical weapons entirely within a very short period. The time for inspections is over. If Mr Assad gives in, then both he and his opponents will be deprived of such poisons—a victory for Mr Obama. If Mr Assad refuses, he should be shown as little mercy as he has shown to the people he claims to govern. If an American missile then hits Mr Assad himself, so be it. He and his henchmen have only themselves to blame."

Gas Head

Bill Day, Cagle Cartoons

U.S. Prepares to Strike Syria Over Alleged Chemical Weapons as British Vote Not to Back Int’l Action

Democracy Now!

"Pentagon officials say the U.S. Navy has moved five destroyers equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles into the eastern Mediterranean Sea to prepare for a possible strike on Syria. This comes as the British Parliament voted Thursday not to back international action against Syria following the Assad regime’s alleged use of chemical weapons last week. This comes as a team of U.N. inspectors, who spent the week traveling to rebel-controlled areas in search of proof of a poison gas attack, is set to give its preliminary findings to U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Saturday. As the United States continues to try to build an international coalition, we speak with Bassam Haddad, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Mason University and co-founder of Jadaliyya.com. “The United States in Iraq has actually used nerve agents, mustard gas, and/or white phosphorus in Fallujah and beyond, left depleted uranium all over the country in Iraq, ruined and destroyed the lives of generations as a result, and now claims that it needs to do this to protect Syrian civilians — which is exactly the opposite of what will happen in any invasion or any strike on Syria, which is not possible to happen in the surgical manner that is being discussed right now,” Haddad says. “You have a regional environment that is also in many ways opposed to this, including of course the allies of Syria in the region, and we have a possibility of this becoming something much more than what many envisioned.”...."

Current Al-Jazeera (Arabic) Online Poll

Do you support a military strike against Syria by the West?

With about 600 responding so far, 61% said yes.

Real News Video: The Most Sought After Chess Piece

Larry Wilkerson: With Saudi Arabia heavily funding the opposition and Iran backing Assad, the Syrian civil war has spiraled into a global struggle for power with the potential for greater catastrophe

News Summary

Here is a news summary for today:

Arabs kill Arabs; Muslims kill other Muslims.

If you want details, scroll down. It will be the same tomorrow, the day after and the day after.

Will the Arabs ever develop and evolve? I doubt it.

Syrian officer, 4 others charged over n. Lebanon blasts

The Daily Star "BEIRUT: Lebanon charged five people Friday, including one Syrian intelligence officer and two sheikhs, over the twin Tripoli bombings that killed 47 people last week. Military Prosecutor Saqr Saqr filed charges against sheikhs Ahmad Gharib and Hashem Minqara as well as informant Mustafa Houri, a judicial source said. The source said Saqr charged two Syrians, including an intelligence officer, in absentia. The Syrian suspects were identified as Capt. Mohammad Ali Ali, an officer in the Syrian Intelligence, and Khodr Lutfi al-Airouni. Saqr charged Gharib and Houri in his court documents with tasking the two Syrians to set up a “monitor and planning cell to carry out terrorist acts in Lebanon, particularly in the north, by preparing bombs and booby trapping cars and putting them in specific areas, including religious institutions with the aim of killing and assassinating political and religious figures.” The two Syrians were charged with “rigging two cars with explosives and placing them, through the help of other individuals, outside al-Taqwa and Al-Salam mosques in Tripoli that left hundreds killed or wounded.” At least 47 people were killed and 500 wounded in the dual car bombing last week in front of two mosques. Minqara, the head of a pro-Assad Islamist group in Lebanon who was detained by police for interrogation Thursday, was charged with withholding information about the Tripoli cell’s terrorist activities. Gharib was known to be a close associate with Minqara while Houri, who worked with Gharib, tipped the police off about the bombing plot before it occurred....."

Ahhh, the "New" Egypt: Egypt fires at Palestinian fishermen off Gaza: medics. Do They Take Turns with Israeli Gunboats?

"Reuters) - Egyptian naval police shot and wounded two Palestinian fishermen and detained five off the Gaza Strip on Friday, medics said, an incident that hinted at increased tension between Gaza's Islamist Hamas rulers and Cairo.
Fishermen from Gaza have often brought in catch from Egyptian territory to sidestep restrictions imposed by Israel's naval blockade of the enclave. But Egypt has grown less tolerant of this practice since Islamist president Mohamed Mursi was toppled by the military almost two months ago.
The group of seven Palestinian fishermen were sailing west of the southern Gaza border town of Rafah towards Egyptian waters when the forces opened fire at them, Gaza hospital officials said. Egyptian authorities had no immediate comment.
The wounded pair avoided arrest and were only lightly hurt, hospital officials in Gaza said.
Relations between Hamas and Egypt have deteriorated markedly since Mursi was removed by the Egyptian military on July 3 after weeks of mass unrest against his Islamist rule. Hamas is an offshoot of Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood......

Israeli forces have regularly shot at Gaza boats seen as trying to breach the blockade, but there was no previous record of the Egyptians opening fire.
Gaza fishermen say that the limited fishing zone imposed by Israel is not big enough to meet the demands in the enclave and have often brought fish back from Egypt, either by boat or through smuggling tunnels.
Since Mursi's ousting, Egyptian authorities have warned Gaza fishermen against entering Egyptian territorial waters.
It could not be confirmed whether the fishermen shot at on Friday were attempting to cross into Egyptian waters."

Footage has emerged of a horrific incident in northern Syria

The Guardian

Note: See the BBC video in the second post below.

"......
Footage has emerged of a horrific incident in northern Syria which reportedly shows the aftermath of an incendiary bomb being dropped on a school playground, leaving scores of children with napalm-like burns over their bodies.
Witnesses told a team from the BBC's Panorama programme that a fighter jet had repeatedly flown overhead, as if searching for a target, before dropping the bomb. The attack killed more than 10 pupils and left many more seriously injured, the BBC said.
Footage showed adults and children, their clothes burned from their bodies, being treated on the floor of a basic hospital. Many had burns to more than 50% of their bodies, it was claimed.
Many were badly burned, shaking uncontrollably and left caked in a white substance, injuries which the BBC said suggested the bomb contained something like napalm or thermite.
The headmaster told reporters:

This was the most horrific thing. We have seen images on TV, we have heard many stories, but we have never seen anything like this before. The worst thing in life is watching someone die right in front of you and you can't do anything.
There were dead people, people burning and people running away, but where to? Where would they go? It is not safe anywhere. That is the fate of the Syrian people.

 A British medic, Dr Rola, who was in Syria with the charity Hand In Hand, treated the victims at the hospital. She said:

It is just absolute chaos and carnage here. We have had a massive influx of what looks like serious burns, seems like it must be some sort of, not really sure, maybe napalm, something similar to that. But obviously within the chaos of the situation it is very difficult to know exactly what is going on.

Mohammed Abdullatif, who witnessed the attack, had a message for the United Nations:

Dear United Nations, you are calling peace, you are calling for peace. What kind of peace are you calling for? Don't you see this, don't you see this? What do you need to see?
We are just human beings, we want to live. It is our right to live."

The UN Farce

Video: Syria crisis: Incendiary bomb victims 'like the walking dead'

"A BBC team inside Syria filming for Panorama has witnessed the aftermath of a fresh horrific incident - an incendiary bomb dropped on to a school playground in the north of the country - which has left scores of children with napalm-like burns over their bodies.

Eyewitnesses describe a fighter jet dropping the device, a low explosion, followed by columns of fire and smoke.

Ian Pannell and cameraman Darren Conway's report contains images viewers may find extremely distressing."

Obama and Assad

Patrick Chappatte, Cagle Cartoons, The International Herald Tribune

Syria – from horror to farce

International response to chemical attacks falls into disarray

By Brian Whitaker

"Bashar al-Assad can relax now, at least for a while. What should have been a clear international response to one of the most dreadful crimes imaginable – the mass slaughter of civilians with poison gas – has descended into confusion and even farce.

The British parliament meets today – urgently recalled from its summer siesta – for a debate about Syria that won't actually decide anything, because the prime minister has been out-manouevred.

Prime minister Cameron had come under pressure from his own Conservative MPs to recall parliament if military action was contemplated before normal parliamentary business resumes next week. After a brief hesitation, Cameron agreed to that and signalled, by implication, that military action was imminent.

His problem now is that if he seeks approval for such action he may well lose the vote [That has already happened!].....

 

In terms of British politics, though, the real issue here is not Syria but the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and Tony Blair's con trick over non-existent weapons. The British public are resentful of having been hoodwinked then and the result now is extreme scepticism about any form of military intervention. While scepticism is usually healthy, some of this is so extreme as to be perverse. I have met people who simply refuse to believe the Assad regime has chemical weapons, even though the regime itself has said it does.....

 

These developments in Britain will probably force President Obama to put his plans on hold. He doesn't want the US to act unilaterally in Syria and although he has other allies, acting without Britain at his side is almost inconceivable. Britain's absence would be exploited politically by his critics.....

 

So, as things now stand, it looks as if nothing much will happen, either in the Security Council or the British parliament, until the UN weapons inspectors issue their report. At present, nobody knows when that will be......

 

Reuters reported yesterday that Assad's forces appear to have already evacuated "most personnel from army and security command headquarters in central Damascus".....

As a result, if airstrikes do eventually go ahead, Obama may have to choose between bombing empty military buildings or new military positions where the risk of civilian casualties will be far higher."

Al-Jazeera Video: ما وراء الخبر.. حملات الملاحقة والتشهير في مصر

قائد إيراني: الضربة الأمريكية لسوريا ستؤدي لزوال إسرائيل

THERE WE GO WITH THE STUPID AND BELLICOSE DECLARATIONS FROM IRAN: A US STRIKE ON SYRIA WILL CAUSE ISRAEL TO VANISH! WOW!!!

قائد الحرس الثوري الايراني محمد علي جعفري

دبي- (رويترز): نقلت وكالة أنباء ايرانية عن محمد علي جعفري قائد الحرس الثوري الايراني قوله إن أي هجوم عسكري أمريكي على سوريا سيؤدي إلى “زوال اسرائيل قريبا” كما ستكون سوريا “فيتنام أخرى” للأمريكيين.

وتساند إيران الشيعية الرئيس السوري بشار الأسد في مواجهة معارضة أغلبها من السنة تحاول الاطاحة به منذ عامين ونصف.

وألقت إيران باللوم على مقاتلي المعارضة في هجوم بأسلحة كيماوية فيما يبدو يوم 21 أغسطس آب أسفر عن مقتل المئات من المدنيين. ويحمل نشطاء المعارضة قوات الأسد المسؤولية وتؤيدهم واشنطن فيما ساق الرئيس الأمريكي باراك أوباما المبررات لشن ضربة عسكرية محدودة ضد سوريا ردا على الهجوم الكيماوي.

وقال جعفري في مقابلة مع وكالة تسنيم الايرانية في وقت متأخر الأربعاء إن أي ضربة أمريكية لن تكون في مصلحة اسرائيل.

وأضاف “إشعال أمريكا للحرب في المنطقة سيؤدي الى زوال إسرائيل قريبا”.

ونشرت وسائل الاعلام الايرانية مقتطفات من المقابلة اليوم الخميس. وتقول تسنيم التي تأسست عام 2012 على موقعها الالكتروني انها تسعى إلى “الدفاع عن الجمهورية الاسلامية ضد الدعاية الاعلامية السلبية”.

ونقلت الوكالة عن جعفري تحذيره للولايات المتحدة من أنها تجازف بالتورط في صراع مكلف وطويل ان هي تدخلت في سوريا.

وأضاف “ستضحى سوريا مقبرة للغزاة و معرکة أکثر خطورة من فيتنام بل ستضحى فيتنام ثانية للامريکان”.

Fire of military action against Syria will burn Israel, Iranian commander says

The Rabbit Sticks His Head Out of the Rabbit Hole for a Photo Op.

I Wonder How Many of his "Tough" Commanders Will Defect After the Missiles Start Hitting?

Syria Debate: Does U.S. Have the Evidence and Authority to Hit Assad for Alleged Chemical Attack?

Democracy Now!





"The Obama administration appears to be pressing ahead with military strikes on Syria despite new obstacles at home and abroad. On Wednesday, an informal meeting of the United Nations Security Council failed to reach an agreement after Russia and China opposed any authorization of force in response to last week’s alleged chemical attack by Assad forces in Ghouta. After domestic pressure, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced he will seek parliamentary authorization for using force against Syria, and only after U.N. inspectors complete their current mission. And in Washington, the White House plans to brief lawmakers today following growing calls that President Obama seek congressional backing for any use of force. The administration is expected to make public soon some of its intelligence, but skeptics say there remains no smoking gun implicating the Assad regime. We host a debate on military intervention in Syria between Tariq Ali of the New Left Review and Steven Clemons of The Atlantic....."