Friday, October 10, 2014

Why This War?

Anti-interventionist liberals don’t get it – but libertarians do.

by , October 10, 2014
Glenn Greenwald has a fascinating piece in The Intercept making the case that the "war on terrorism" is going to be "endless," as he puts it. From a decade to twenty years to Leon Panetta’s recent pronouncement that "I think we’re looking at kind of a thirty years war," Greenwald painstakingly documents statements by Obama administration officials essentially showing that they see the war as having nogeographic or temporal limit. And that’s not the worst of it: he goes on to show that not only Panetta but also the person "likely to be the next American president" is projecting our current Middle East intervention into the indefinite future.
Whether Hillary Clinton is "likely" to occupy the White House is debatable, but it’s hard to argue with Greenwald’s conclusion. "At this point," he writes,
"It is literally inconceivable to imagine the U.S. not at war. It would be shocking if that happened in our lifetime. US officials are now all but openly saying this. ‘Endless War’ is not dramatic rhetorical license but a precise description of America’s foreign policy."
Indeed, all of this is indisputable, and yet it leads us to ask: Why? What are we getting out of this Sisyphean slaughter? Greenwald thinks he has the answer;
"It’s not hard to see why. A state of endless war justifies ever-increasing state power and secrecy and a further erosion of rights. It also entails a massive transfer of public wealth to the "homeland security" and weapons industry (which the US media deceptively calls the ‘defense sector’)."
He then takes us through the details of how much the military-industrial complex has profited – and will continue to profit – from America’s wars. The piece is helpfully illustrated with graphs showing the skyrocketing gains enjoyed by stockholders in such companies as Lockheed-Martin, Northrup-Grumman, Raytheon, and General Dynamics. Greenwald concludes with the observation that the War on Terror "was designed to be endless." Power and profit will flow to the Usual Suspects, in spite of election outcomes, because the conflict "has no discernible enemy and no identifiable limits."
And the motive? Material and psychological profit: not only will the politically-connected war profiteers make out like bandits, but:
"This war – in all its ever-changing permutations – thus enables an endless supply of power and profit to flow to those political and economic factions that control the government regardless of election outcomes. And that’s all independent of the vicarious sense of joy, purpose and fulfillment which the sociopathic Washington class derives from waging risk-free wars, as Adam Smith so perfectly described in Wealth of Nations 235 years ago:
"’In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies. To them this amusement compensates the small difference between the taxes which they pay on account of the war, and those which they had been accustomed to pay in time of peace. They are commonly dissatisfied with the return of peace, which puts an end to their amusement, and to a thousand visionary hopes of conquest and national glory from a longer continuance of the war.’" [emphasis in original]
All this is true: the political class gets its kicks, as well as its stock dividends, out of America’s hegemonic position in world affairs. How else do we explain the existence of an entire community of foreign policy wonks, mostly resident in the Washington, D.C. area, who spend all their time drawing up plans for US meddling in every far corner of the globe? That hardly a single one of these ladies and gentlemen is raising so much as a mild objection to our latest incursion is entirely unsurprising: these people are like a swarm of deadly midges, moving in a cloud to descend on whatever target our leaders point to.
Yet this hardly explains enough: after all, there are limits to what the United States – or any single nation – can do to determine the course of world events. Our resources are finite. So why are they being stretched to the breaking point? Why are we flirting with economic disaster as more and more of our tax dollars are shipped overseas to prop up a constantly-threatened empire while our economy is suffering from the "vampire effect" – the draining of productive resources (capital) into the sinkhole of imperialism? Is it to feed the profit margins of Raytheon? Is it to make Eli Lake feel better?
The answer is: neither. While the economic and psychological benefits to the political class are reasons why the Washington crowd continues to support our foreign policy of endless war, this doesn’t tell us what they are supporting. That is, it doesn’t tell us what the reigning ideology of empire is all about.
American imperialism, born amid the ashes of World War II, isn’t about profits for the "defense" industry: it isn’t even about the thrill the neocons get whenever we bomb yet another defenseless Muslim country. It’s about what that thrill tells us about the dominant ideas of America’s political class.
America’s ruling elite has been "progressive" since the dawn of modernity, right before the first world war. Anticipating the social and economic changes war would bring, the editors of The New Republic exulted in the prospect of a major conflict, as Murray Rothbard pointed out in his classic essay, "World War I as Fulfillment: Power and the Intellectuals":
"In his editorial in the magazine’s first issue in November 1914, Herbert Croly cheerily prophesied that the war would stimulate America’s spirit of nationalism and therefore bring it closer to democracy. At first hesitant about the collectivist war economies in Europe, The New Republic soon began to cheer and urged the United States to follow the lead of the warring European nations and socialize its economy and expand the powers of the State. 
"As America prepared to enter the war, The New Republic, examining war collectivism in Europe, rejoiced that ‘on its administrative side socialism [had] won a victory that [was] superb and compelling.’ True, European war collectivism was a bit grim and autocratic, but never fear, America could use the selfsame means for ‘democratic’ goals. 
"The New Republic intellectuals also delighted in the ‘war spirit’ in America, for that spirit meant ‘the substitution of national and social and organic forces for the more or less mechanical private forces operative in peace.’ The purposes of war and social reform might be a bit different, but, after all, ‘they are both purposes, and luckily for mankind a social organization which is efficient is as useful for the one as for the other.’ Lucky indeed.
As America prepared to enter the war, the New Republic eagerly looked forward to imminent collectivization, sure that it would bring “immense gains in national efficiency and happiness.” After war was declared, the magazine urged that the war be used as “an aggressive tool of democracy.”
“’Why should not the war serve,’ the magazine asked, ‘as a pretext to be used to foist innovations upon the country?’ In that way, progressive intellectuals could lead the way in abolishing ‘the typical evils of the sprawling half-educated competitive capitalism.’"
It’s interesting that the central theme of Greenwald’s piece – and a major theme of his activities as a public intellectual – has been to underscore the warmongering of ostensible liberals, whom, one would presume, would take a default position againstwar. Yet this expectation is a vestige of the cold war era, when some liberals stood up against the constant state of "crisis" the global struggle against Communism provoked – or, at least, they stood up against its domestic manifestations, i.e. McCarthyism and the witch-hunting it inspired.
Yet the cold war was inaugurated by the liberal Democratic administration of Harry Truman, who presided over the creation of NATO, the Marshall Plan, and the Korean war – the first war in which the President unilaterally committed US troops to combat without a vote in Congress. And it was the so-called cold war liberals, such as Arthur Schlesinger, Jr., later to become official hagiographer to the Kennedys, who attacked their fellow liberals – and right-wing "isolationists" – for not being hard-line enough in opposing the Kremlin’s alleged plan for world domination.
In a piece for The Atlantic Monthly, Schlesinger savaged Sen. Robert A. Taft and former President Herbert Hoover for suggesting that the real threat to American liberties came not from the Kremlin but from our own political class, which was all too eager to impose crippling taxes and draconian regulations on free enterprise in the name of "national security." This "New Isolationism," Schlesinger averred, was just as dangerous and misguided as the older pre-World War II variety, a doctrine that, "without McCarthyism," is simply "appeasement."
By the way, the impetus for Schlesinger’s piece was the alleged threat of a communist takeover of Indochina – the site of what was to shortly become the graveyard of tens of thousands of American soldiers. And that war was brought to us not by conservatives – who by that time had ditched their "isolationist" coloration and taken on more belligerent hues – but by dyed-in-the-wool liberals of Schlesinger’s sort: the Kennedy administration, which upped our commitment to the Saigon regime, and the Johnson regime, which escalated the conflict until it brought down Johnson’s presidency, which ended in disaster and humiliation.
The massive effort we call the cold war wasn’t driven by the profit margins of the "defense" industry, although that was a contributing factor: nor was it made possible by the personal proclivities and psychological tics of our leading politicians, although that, too, contributed to the mix. Yes, the thrill experienced by the policynomenklatura in knowing that their opinions can move – and blast to smithereens – mountains is palpable, but that response is elicited by a cohered ideology of domination that animates our empire-builders.
This ideology has a name: we call it "progressivism." It has a long history, starting withTeddy Roosevelt and his intellectual publicists, continuing through the Great War and the run-up to World War II – when it was the left that was screaming for US intervention in the European conflict – and its aftermath.
Based on ignorance not only of economics but of human nature itself, and imbued with religious elements that date all the way back to the post-millennial pietism of the great fundamentalist revival of the early nineteenth century, American progressivism has evolved until it has taken on all the elements of an expansionist, supremely militaristic ideology. It is a creed based on the assumption that government power must be utilized to lift up the ignorant masses: to not only feed, clothe, and educate them, but also to ensure their perfect safety.
Thus, it becomes imperative to make sure that only the State has access to guns – otherwise, someone might hurt either themselves or someone else. It becomes a requirement that we wear safety belts when driving – because the ultimate purpose of government is to wrap us all in its all-embracing cocoon. And if a band of savagesbellows that they hate the United States, and are determined to destroy it – from their base in the wilds of Afghanistan – well, then, it’s fairly obvious that we have to send our armies out there to make sure they don’t have a "safe haven" in which to carry out their insidious plots.
Once our progressives had transformed the old America into an experimental laboratory for their social engineering projects, it was only natural that these crusading "idealists" would turn their sights on the rest of the world. Not content to thrust the paw of government power into every aspect of our lives here in America, the nation’s do-gooders are intent on exporting their do-goodism to the four corners of the globe.
This is why our foreign policy consists of "endless war," as Greenwald puts it: because if your goal is world domination, then the war to establish a global authority – with Washington as its capital – must be necessarily open-ended. That’s because there will always be resistance to such a project: once a rebellion is put down in the Middle East, for example, another one is more than likely to pop up in Africa, or eastern Europe, or someplace else.
Greenwald traces the policy of perpetual war only as far back as the beginning of the so-called War on Terror – roughly, September 11, 2001 – but if we look at the actual timeline of America’s wars we can see that the current series of US interventions really started with the fall of the Soviet Union. After that signal event, which left the US as the world’s sole superpower, Washington launched the Kosovo war, the first Iraq war, and the long prelude to the second Iraq war anticipated by Bill Clinton’s almost continuous bombing campaign.
With the Soviets out of the way, the United States and its allies undertook a campaign to seize as much territory as possible – and establish the hegemony of the West on a global scale. The 9/11 attacks merely gave them the domestic support they needed to carry this project through to the end.
Well-meaning liberals of Greenwald’s sort are invaluable allies in the day-to-day struggle against the Empire, and yet we should not imagine that – as long as they maintain their allegiance to this or that aspect of progressivism – they are capable of understanding the real nature of the enemy. The task of libertarians in the present epoch is to make them understand.

Shlomo Sand: ‘I wish to resign and cease considering myself a Jew’

His past was Jewish, but today he sees Israel as one of the most racist societies in the western world. Historian Shlomo Sand explains why he doesn’t want to be Jewish anymore

  • The Guardian, 
Shlomo Sands
‘When I am far from Israel, I see my street corner in Tel Aviv and look forward to the moment I can return to it’ … Shlomo Sand. Photograph: Gali Tibbon/Graphic
During the first half of the 20th century, my father abandoned Talmudic school, permanently stopped going to synagogue, and regularly expressed his aversion to rabbis. At this point in my own life, in the early 21st century, I feel in turn a moral obligation to break definitively with tribal Judeocentrism. I am today fully conscious of having never been a genuinely secular Jew, understanding that such an imaginary characteristic lacks any specific basis or cultural perspective, and that its existence is based on a hollow and ethnocentric view of the world. Earlier I mistakenly believed that the Yiddish culture of the family I grew up in was the embodiment of Jewish culture. A little later, inspired by Bernard Lazare, Mordechai Anielewicz, Marcel Rayman and Marek Edelman – who all fought antisemitism, nazism and Stalinism without adopting an ethnocentric view – I identified as part of an oppressed and rejected minority. In the company, so to speak, of the socialist leader Léon Blum, the poet Julian Tuwim and many others, I stubbornly remained a Jew who had accepted this identity on account of persecutions and murderers, crimes and their victims.
Now, having painfully become aware that I have undergone an adherence to Israel, been assimilated by law into a fictitious ethnos of persecutors and their supporters, and have appeared in the world as one of the exclusive club of the elect and their acolytes, I wish to resign and cease considering myself a Jew.
Although the state of Israel is not disposed to transform my official nationality from “Jew” to “Israeli”, I dare to hope that kindly philosemites, committed Zionists and exalted anti-Zionists, all of them so often nourished on essentialist conceptions, will respect my desire and cease to catalogue me as a Jew. As a matter of fact, what they think matters little to me, and still less what the remaining antisemitic idiots think. In the light of the historic tragedies of the 20th century, I am determined no longer to be a small minority in an exclusive club that others have neither the possibility nor the qualifications to join.
By my refusal to be a Jew, I represent a species in the course of disappearing. I know that by insisting that only my historical past was Jewish, while my everyday present (for better or worse) is Israeli, and finally that my future and that of my children (at least the future I wish for) must be guided by universal, open and generous principles, I run counter to the dominant fashion, which is oriented towards ethnocentrism.
As a historian of the modern age, I put forward the hypothesis that the cultural distance between my great-grandson and me will be as great or greater than that separating me from my own great-grandfather. All the better! I have the misfortune of living now among too many people who believe their descendants will resemble them in all respects, because for them peoples are eternal – a fortiori a race-people such as the Jews.
I am aware of living in one of the most racist societies in the western world. Racism is present to some degree everywhere, but in Israel it exists deep within the spirit of the laws. It is taught in schools and colleges, spread in the media, and above all and most dreadful, in Israel the racists do not know what they are doing and, because of this, feel in no way obliged to apologise. This absence of a need for self-justification has made Israel a particularly prized reference point for many movements of the far right throughout the world, movements whose past history of antisemitism is only too well known.
To live in such a society has become increasingly intolerable to me, but I must also admit that it is no less difficult to make my home elsewhere. I am myself a part of the cultural, linguistic and even conceptual production of the Zionist enterprise, and I cannot undo this. By my everyday life and my basic culture I am an Israeli. I am not especially proud of this, just as I have no reason to take pride in being a man with brown eyes and of average height. I am often even ashamed of Israel, particularly when I witness evidence of its cruel military colonisation, with its weak and defenceless victims who are not part of the “chosen people”.
Earlier in my life I had a fleeting utopian dream that a Palestinian Israeli should feel as much at home in Tel Aviv as a Jewish American does in New York. I struggled and sought for the civil life of a Muslim Israeli in Jerusalem to be similar to that of the Jewish French person whose home is in Paris. I wanted Israeli children of Christian African immigrants to be treated as the British children of immigrants from the Indian subcontinent are in London. I hoped with all my heart that all Israeli children would be educated together in the same schools. Today I know that my dream is outrageously demanding, that my demands are exaggerated and impertinent, that the very fact of formulating them is viewed by Zionists and their supporters as an attack on the Jewish character of the state of Israel, and thus as antisemitism.
Palestinians crossing the border into Egypt
‘I am often ashamed of Israel, particularly when I witness evidence of its cruel military colonisation, with its weak and defenceless victims who are not part of the “chosen people”,’ writes Shlomo Sand. Photograph: Hatem Moussa/AP
However, strange as it may seem, and in contrast to the locked-in character of secular Jewish identity, treating Israeli identity as politico-cultural rather than “ethnic” does appear to offer the potential for achieving an open and inclusive identity. According to the law, in fact, it is possible to be an Israeli citizen without being a secular “ethnic” Jew, to participate in its “supra-culture” while preserving one’s “infra-culture”, to speak the hegemonic language and cultivate in parallel another language, to maintain varied ways of life and fuse different ones together. To consolidate this republican political potential, it would be necessary, of course, to have long abandoned tribal hermeticism, to learn to respect the Other and welcome him or her as an equal, and to change the constitutional laws of Israel to make them compatible with democratic principles.
Most important, if it has been momentarily forgotten: before we put forward ideas on changing Israel’s identity policy, we must first free ourselves from the accursed and interminable occupation that is leading us on the road to hell. In fact, our relation to those who are second-class citizens of Israel is inextricably bound up with our relation to those who live in immense distress at the bottom of the chain of the Zionist rescue operation. That oppressed population, which has lived under the occupation for close to 50 years, deprived of political and civil rights, on land that the “state of the Jews” considers its own, remains abandoned and ignored by international politics. I recognise today that my dream of an end to the occupation and the creation of a confederation between two republics, Israeli and Palestinian, was a chimera that underestimated the balance of forces between the two parties.
Increasingly it appears to be already too late; all seems already lost, and any serious approach to a political solution is deadlocked. Israel has grown used to this, and is unable to rid itself of its colonial domination over another people. The world outside, unfortunately, does not do what is needed either. Its remorse and bad conscience prevent it from convincing Israel to withdraw to the 1948 frontiers. Nor is Israel ready to annex the occupied territories officially, as it would then have to grant equal citizenship to the occupied population and, by that fact alone, transform itself into a binational state. It’s rather like the mythological serpent that swallowed too big a victim, but prefers to choke rather than to abandon it.
Does this mean I, too, must abandon hope? I inhabit a deep contradiction. I feel like an exile in the face of the growing Jewish ethnicisation that surrounds me, while at the same time the language in which I speak, write and dream is overwhelmingly Hebrew. When I find myself abroad, I feel nostalgia for this language, the vehicle of my emotions and thoughts. When I am far from Israel, I see my street corner in Tel Aviv and look forward to the moment I can return to it. I do not go to synagogues to dissipate this nostalgia, because they pray there in a language that is not mine, and the people I meet there have absolutely no interest in understanding what being Israeli means for me.
In London it is the universities and their students of both sexes, not the Talmudic schools (where there are no female students), that remind me of the campus where I work. In New York it is the Manhattan cafes, not the Brooklyn enclaves, that invite and attract me, like those of Tel Aviv. And when I visit the teeming Paris bookstores, what comes to my mind is the Hebrew book week organised each year in Israel, not the sacred literature of my ancestors.
My deep attachment to the place serves only to fuel the pessimism I feel towards it. And so I often plunge into despondency about the present and fear for the future. I am tired, and feel that the last leaves of reason are falling from our tree of political action, leaving us barren in the face of the caprices of the sleepwalking sorcerers of the tribe. But I cannot allow myself to be completely fatalistic. I dare to believe that if humanity succeeded in emerging from the 20th century without a nuclear war, everything is possible, even in the Middle East. We should remember the words of Theodor Herzl, the dreamer responsible for the fact that I am an Israeli: “If you will it, it is no legend.”
As a scion of the persecuted who emerged from the European hell of the 1940s without having abandoned the hope of a better life, I did not receive permission from the frightened archangel of history to abdicate and despair. Which is why, in order to hasten a different tomorrow, and whatever my detractors say, I shall continue to write.

Iran: We will not allow the fall of the Assad regime

Iran will not allow Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's regime to fall, the country's Deputy Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdul Abdollahian, stressed yesterday.
Speaking during a conference entitled Iraq and the international coalition against ISIS, he said: "The US informed Iran, before its attack on ISIS, that it does not have any plans to attack Iran, or the centres of Bashar Al-Assad's government, and it told the Syrian government the same thing, but we do not trust them in these matters. So we are following the developments closely."
The official said: "So I say that all incorrect attempts that may be carried out by the United States or any other country, such as imposing a no-fly zone, threatening the national sovereignty of Syria [What kind of joke is this??], or moving military units onto Syrian territory will lead to serious consequences."
Abdollahian said Iran had taken measures to help the Kurds in Kobani in the context of aid carried out by the Syrian regime, he says, without providing any information on what kind of aid he was referring to.
He added: "We are working with countries in the region to resolve the ongoing crisis in Kobani, we continue our discussions with our friend Turkey, and we believe that Turkey can play an important role in the return of Syrian refugees to their country."

Why are the media playing lapdog and not watchdog – again – on war in Iraq?

Fear sells, violence sells, war sells. The mainstream press just sold another American war

obama kerry power
No matter who is in power, the media finds a reason not to question the march to war.Photograph: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images
A war-weary American public that a year ago resoundingly rejected US military intervention in Syria to overthrow the Assad regime now is rallying behind the use of force to destroy the so-called Islamic State (Isis). In just three months, from June to September, support for US airstrikes in Iraq soared from 45% percent to 71%, and to 65% for airstrikes in Syria.
How did such an astounding turnabout occur? Certainly it wasn’t due to the persuasive powers of President Obama, who seems to have been reluctantly dragged into a conflict that he once acknowledged has no military solution.
The credit for selling Obama’s war on Isis must go to the mainstream American media.
Day after day, night after night, the press relied on propaganda from both Isis and the US government to whip up fear and a thirst for revenge in the American public. Gruesome beheading videos distributed by Isis were played over and over. The media not only regurgitated official US messages but packaged them better than the government itself ever could.
And then, as if Isis wasn’t enough to whip up public fear itself, the Khorasan Group suddenly appeared as the US media compliantly latched onto the new script leaked by anonymous officials, just a few days before Syrian air strikes were set to begin. Khorasan, they told the public on the administration’s behalf, is a group of hardened terrorists more dangerous than Isis because it plans to attack commercial planes using flammable clothing or exploding toothpaste.
The imminent Khorasan attack justified the ensuing U.S. bombing. However, it was later reported that Khorasan – if it even exists – is just a handful of militants whose plans were not so imminent. Few media bothered to follow up on that aspect of the story.
Why has the media pushed the Obama administration’s war frame instead of playing the role of skeptic by questioning official assertions, insisting for corroboration on “anonymous leaks” and seeking alternative points of view? After years of government lies – from claims of WMDs in Iraq tozero civilian casualties in drone strikes – you’d think the members of the fourth estate would have learned a lesson.
But the mainstream US media plays the role of government lapdog more than watchdog.
They sensationalized the supposed threat from Isis even as intelligence agencies insisted that the group poses no immediate threat to the United States. A chorus of fearmongers, Republicans and Democrats alike, appeared on TV to insist that the American way of life is at stake. The hysterical Senator Lindsey Graham claimed that Isis is out to murder each and every one of us. Senator Bill Nelson advocated cutting off the “head of the snake” before Isis could fly its black flag over the White House. Former CIA and Pentagon chief Leon Panetta warned Americans to brace for a 30-year crusade. The media even trotted out “experts” on war – or at least war-mongering – like John McCain, Dick Cheney and even former presidential envoy to Iraq, Paul Bremer.
Obsessed with maintaining access to power, the mainstream media just keeps handing their megaphone to the powerful and self-interested. Rarely do we hear from people who opposed the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq or rightly predicted the chaos that would result from NATO intervention in Libya. The few anti-war voices who manage to slip into the dialogue are marginalized and later silenced.
Let’s face it: fear sells, violence sells, war sells. The vicious Isis beheadings, discussed ad infinitum, attracted large audiences. So did talkabout exploding toothpaste. People whipped into a state of fear always want to know more.
Sadly, the public is not getting what it deserves: a well-rounded debate about the pros and cons of military action. Why has a decade of supportfor the Iraqi army and years of covert CIA support for the Syrian opposition been so fruitless? How much might this intervention cost? (So far, the bill has been more than $1bn.) How will Middle East monarchies that funded extremists suddenly become exemplars of democratic values? What is the endgame in Syria? Will Bashar Assad still be in power? What are the unintended consequences of expanding American military action in the Middle East? (The Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported that the US bombings already have attracted 6,000 more recruits to Isis.) And most important of all: what are the alternatives to stop the slaughter of innocent civilians? The voices of people proposing political solutions other than slaughter are the voices the public deserves to hear.
Wars usually start with overwhelming public approval once the White House and the national security apparatus get the media to beat the war drums. It’s only after people tire of war that the media really begin to seek answers to questions that should have been asked before the bombs were launched.
But instead, once again, the US government and the US media establishment is embracing a military policy of airstrikes to strengthen local capacity despite a regional landscape – from Yemen to Libya – littered with the wreckage of this approach. Smoldering in the detritus of war is also the fourth estate.

Coalition air strikes against Isis aid Bashar al-Assad, Syrian rebels claim

Shelling and bombing by the Syrian government intensifies in the two weeks since coalition air strikes against Isis began

kobani
Smoke rises after a coalition air strike in Kobani. Syrian rebels claim attacks against Isis have allowed government forces to intensify their own offensive. Photograph: Umit Bektas/Reuters
Syrian government forces are pursuing their war on rebels seeking the overthrow of president Bashar al-Assad and are barely affected by the US-led air campaign against the Islamic State (Isis), now focused on the embattled town of Kobani on the northern border with Turkey.
Analysts and diplomats in Syria and abroad say government air raids – including deadly barrel bombings – have claimed scores of lives in the two weeks since the coalition air strikes began. In some areas government attacks have intensified – as have rebel operations.
But the Syrian president’s ability to continue to attack his enemies without interference is fuelling anger amongst mainstream opposition supporters. “Syrian warplanes used to shell us two or three times a week but now they target us every day thanks to the coalition forces,” Faris Samir, from Harm in the northern Idlib region, complained on Thursday.
“We are losing martyrs and many get injured but no one pays any attention. Now the Syrian army is taking areas bombed by the coalition forces after the Islamic factions withdraw. I have to say that the coalition military campaign is in the interest of the Syrian regime and against the Syrian people.”
Overall, however, the strategic picture has hardly changed. The only significant government advance has been north of Aleppo. In the Homs area, coalition strikes hit Isis positions but government forces were unable to take advantage.
“In no case has a coalition air strike helped government forces,” Alaa Ibrahim, a Syrian commentator, told the Guardian. “But there has not been any hindrance to government attacks on rebels either.” Damascus, emphasising its “war on terror” narrative, has indicated that it is happy with the anti-Isis offensive and done nothing to interfere with it.
No coalition strikes have been made to help or relieve rebel forces where they were facing either Isis or government troops. Emile Hokayem of the International Institute of Strategic Studies said Assad has been able “to give his troops a break while surveying the landscape and looking for opportunities.”
Officials of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), the main western-backed rebel grouping – supposed to form the nucleus of a new, more effective US-backed fighting force – protest that there is no coordination with them. ”Our supporters could be the coalition’s eyes and ears on the ground,” said one. “US strikes are being unproductive, hitting empty buildings or killing civilians. That’s why there has been such anti-strike sentiment building up inside Syria. People can’t believe that all this attention is being paid to Isis when they see Assad as the biggest terrorist.”
Coalition hits on grain silos and a gas plant in Manbij and Deir al-Zor drew warnings of a humanitarian disaster – and the risk of playing into Isis’s hands, as shortages during the winter will be blamed on the international community. The Hazm movement – backed by the US and supplied with advanced anti-tank weapons – publicly denounced the intervention but was quickly silenced by Washington, rebel sources say. Attacks on Jabhat al Nusra (another al-Qaida-linked jihadi group and a rival to Isis) have backfired, and are said to have brought it new recruits.
Civilian deaths caused by coalition attacks clearly risk a backlash. “We had 10 martyrs when they targeted Al-Riqa,” said Zeid Al-Jabli, a student from Zawiya in the Idlib area. “There had been a base for Jabhat al-Nusra but they pulled out a long time ago and the civilians were killed instead. Shelling by the regime has intensified because of the coalition. We have martyrs and wounded every day.”
Mustafa Ahmed, also from the Idlib region, agreed :”I believe that the coalition’s intervention is in support of the regime. Now we have new displaced people created by the coalition.”
Yet few believe that Assad will benefit in the long run from the anti-Isis offensive. ”He does not have the human resources to go back to occupy areas where Isis has retreated,” said Monzer Akbik, a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Coalition.
“It’s not so much that Assad is taking advantage of the strikes themselves, but that his forces have been able to continue carrying out air strikes of their own despite coalition aircraft occupying their airspace,” argued Charles Lister of the Brookings Doha Centre. “Isis has been an isolated force within the wider Syrian conflict dynamic for so long that strikes focused on their positions have not significantly affected any one side, as yet.”
Politically, it is a different story. “It is undeniable that Assad benefits in many ways from the anti-Isis campaign,” said Hokayem. “His own attacks and atrocities have received less attention. He cultivates ambiguity about coordination with the international coalition and benefits from the disarray and frustration among rebel forces and their sympathisers; the defection of some rebel units to Isis helps him portray all rebels as extremists.
“Obama said a few weeks ago that the US had no strategy yet to fight Isis. It seems there is still no strategy because the Syria component is missing. The US has adopted a narrow, counter-terrorism approach that is flawed and counter-productive, and has time after time ignored and denigrated its potential Syrian allies.”

What gives legitimacy to ISIL's rhetoric?

Failure of top-down modernisation and disintegration of post-colonial national borders have cost the region dearly.



Since the map of the Middle East was drawn by the Sykes-Picot Agreement in the aftermath of World War I and the retreat of the Ottoman Turks in favour of the British and French, the lines demarcating the boundaries between states in the Arab region have never been successfully challenged, even in the heyday of pan-Arab nationalism.
Saddam Hussein's ill-conceived adventure in neighbouring Kuwait ended in catastrophe, costing him his regime, and eventually, even his life. But two decades later, a small obscure group has, ironically, managed to achieve what the once mighty Iraqi army had failed to do in 1990. Declaring its dominance over huge swathes of land in Iraq and Syria, ISIL has effectively erased the long established frontier between the two countries, thus mounting the first successful challenge to the Sykes-Picot arrangement.
History abounds with shadowy extremist organisations, centred on deviant ideas - not always of a religious nature - eccentric megalomaniacs, or purely criminal objectives. ISIL is neither unique nor without precedent in this respect. What distinguishes the group is in reality neither its fanaticism, nor brutal methods, but the suddenness of its rise and astonishing speed of its territorial expansion. In the space of a few months, this once marginal faction has come to occupy the centre stage of international politics, threatening the existence of entire regional states and governments, redefining old political geographies, even managing to bring together sworn enemies around the shared goal of defeating it, from Iran and Qatar to the US and Gulf kingdoms.
Unexpected ascendancy
Endlessly churned out epithets about ISIL's theological origins, exclusionary takfiri (apostate) tendencies and religious legitimisation of its brutal methods are useless in the quest to grasp the causes of its unexpected ascendancy and rapid proliferation.                                                                                  
The 'Sykes-Picot' borders ISIL wants gone
It is the changing geopolitics of the region that holds the answers here. What gave and continues to grant ISIL - and other violent anarchic groups of its kind - momentum and room for diffusion is the strategic and political vacuum generated by the retreat of US influence in the Middle East, and Arab Orient more specifically.
The US is no longer able to monitor and regulate the rhythm of events in that sensitive part of the world. The wave of exhibitionist pre-emptive strikes launched by the neo-cons ended in two consecutive military defeats and hasty retreats.
The limits of US military might were laid bare for all to see. Thanks to its superior firepower, it was able to topple regimes and dismantle existing structures, but was dismally impotent to rebuild them anew. And in the vacuum and trail of devastation it left behind, the US created a fertile soil for the growth of extremist violent groups, on the one hand, and of internecine ethnic and sectarian conflicts, on the other.
Another irony is that the Americans find themselves today compelled to return to the Middle East, having retreated from it in order to channel what remains of their might on the escalating threat posed by a rising China and respond to the challenges of the shift of wealth and influence eastwards. But Obama's US looks nothing like the one that had mobilised its fleets against Saddam Hussein a decade ago. Today, it reluctantly retraces its footsteps to the same battlefield, broken and bruised, full of caution and foreboding.
The geopolitical void that appeared with the decline of US power after Afghanistan and Iraq was further exposed with the Syrian revolution, as the US and its Gulf allies proved powerless to end the conflict conclusively in their favour, desperately jostling for control and influence with the Iranians and Russians. And as in Iraq, radical jihadist groups swiftly moved in to fill the resulting political vacuum, finding an ideal social foster in long standing sectarian grievances.
Complex demographics
Today, we are witnessing the explosion of the complex demographics of Arab society. In colonial times, local administrations had managed tensions between its myriad traditional social configurations, religious, sectarian, tribal and ethnic, via a policy of containment, dilution, or repression. This role was subsequently taken up by the post-colonial state within a process of superimposed pseudo-modernisation, and under the banner of a collective national identity that remained feeble and skin- deep.
Amidst the collapse of fragile post-colonial political structures in countries like Libya, Iraq, Syria, and the Yemern, traditional bonds and identities have reasserted themselves again, but in a more raucous bloody manner. Sunnis, Shia, Kurds, Arabs, Muslims and Christians, all turned against each other in a chilling spectacle of senseless self-mutilation.
This atmosphere of paranoid animosity, social disarray and political crisis was a potent incubator for Islamic radicalism, with its ideological fervour, excommunicatory tendencies, and puritanical dreams. Political grievances mingled with ethnic and sectarian grudges to produce the hatred ridden grandiose discourse of al-Qaeda, ISIL and their Jihadist likes.
Price of failure
Today, the region is paying the price for the failure of top-down modernisation and the disintegration of artificial post-colonial national borders and frail political edifices. And with the evaporation of the great hopes pinned on the Arab Spring of the possibility of change through peaceful means and popular protests, extremism and violence have reared their head once more. But as disillusionment and despair descend on the region and tighten their icy grip on its throat, this deformed ghoulish child of crisis looks uglier, deadlier and more vindictive than ever.
By renewing and bolstering old alliances with Gulf sheikhdoms and autocratic Arab regimes to thwart democratic political change; overseeing the return to military coups and cloaking them with legitimacy, the US and its European allies have sent Arabs a clear resounding message: "Ballot boxes are not for you! They are pointless as means of change. Their results are easily discarded and trampled upon. Violence and revenge are the way out of your bleak existence." Nothing could have rendered more credence and legitimacy to the rhetoric of ISIL and the jihadist cause.
Through its modern history, the Arab region has been an open index of the ascent and descent of global powers and a mirror of the great players' fluctuating fortunes. And in this strategically positioned part of the globe, power shifts have always come at a heavy price, paid in much blood and socio-political instability, be that from the Ottomans to the British in the wake of the World War I, or to their American heirs after the World War II. The currently unfolding transformation is no exception. The wave of turmoil, chaos and misery it carries will most likely continue to engulf the region for years to come.
Soumaya Ghannoushi is a freelance writer specialising in the history of European perceptions of Islam.