Monday, August 15, 2011

No stalemate in Libya – the writing is on the wall for Gaddafi

A quick exit for the colonel matters less than a well-managed transition, preparing the country for representative government

Brian Whitaker
guardian.co.uk, Monday 15 August 2011

"....A meeting in Tunisia on Sunday evening between the warring sides has also given rise to speculation that Gaddafi's exit is under discussion again. On Monday, the regime seemed to suffer a further political blow when Gaddafi's interior minister turned up in Cairo with nine members of his family – ostensibly on a tourist visit, though defection seems more likely, as the Libyan embassy in Egypt was unaware of his arrival.

These may be signs that Gaddafi's fall is imminent, but there are still too many unknown factors for anyone to be sure. We don't, for example, know how much cohesion there still is within Gaddafi's inner circle. As they feel the squeeze, however, internal rifts are far more likely – and the interior minister's "holiday" may be an example of that.

Similarly, once Gaddafi's remaining supporters sense that his departure is inevitable, those who have depended on his patronage or supported him through fear of the alternatives will have to reconsider their options – and when that starts happening, the collapse could come quite suddenly...."

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