The rise of Shia Houthi rebels and the fall of the Hadi government have shaken country whose ‘deep state’ has long been a bedrock of US fight against terror
For almost 15 years, the US’s relationship with Yemen has been defined by an intelligence relationship that eclipsed all other nation-building measures and anchored America’s global counter-terrorism strategy.
Now, though, with two Washington-backed presidents having fallen in less than four years and the established military jeopardised by chaos, policymakers are bereft of solutions.
Shia Houthi rebels seized decisive control of the country’s north this week, following months of civil war and years of lawlessness and corruption.
On Tuesday, the rebels routed government forces and overran the presidential palace in the capital, Sana’a. Weakened by poverty and the waning support of neighboring Saudi Arabia, government institutions fell in a matter of days and Sunni extremists rallied in the southern provinces. The besieged president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, finally acceded to the demands of the Houthis on Thursday.
Hadi’s resignation and the collapse of the government has left Yemen-US relations at a more unstable juncture than at any point since the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000, a seminal event in the two countries’ fraught history. Ever since, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (Aqap) has slowly evolved into a potent threat on a regional stage – with a demonstrated will to make its presence felt elsewhere.
“When you have this laser-like focus on a limited [counter-terrorism] mission that sort of distorts your perspective,” said Micah Zenko, a national security scholar at the Council of Foreign Relations.
During Hadi’s presidency and, before that, during Ali Abdullah Saleh’s, the US has launched 107 drone strikes in south Yemen, where Aqap has rallied and planned attacks
The north had been left largely to a frail political class, which proved susceptible to the rise of the Houthis. “Under US policy guidance the leader of Yemen means nothing as to whether the US can conduct military strikes in the south,” said Zenko, adding that the main effect of the Houthi rebellion on US policy will likely take place at intelligence levels that are opaque to outside observers.
Zenko noted that the US has not carried out a drone strike in Yemen since November, probably as “human intelligence diminished because the Yemeni security forces became preoccupied with other missions”. He said that American missions against Aqap will depend “on the degree to which US intelligence is in normal, day-to-day working contact” with Yemeni security forces.
With all strategic military bases in Sana’a now at least partially controlled by the Houthis, the implications for military operations remain unclear. Asked what the collapse of the Yemeni government would mean for US policy toward the country, a State Department spokesperson said the Houthis and the US had a common enemy in Aqap but added that developments were still being analysed.
On Friday, the US sharply scaled back its presence in Sana’a, pulling more staff out of its embassy.
Policymakers in the US and Britain fear the creation of a vacuum in Yemen similar to those in which jihadists have thrived in Syria and Iraq.
“Aqap were on the back foot and facing existential dilemmas, but the rise of the Houthis has handed them a golden opportunity,” said a western official in the region. “They have been presenting themselves as the only ones who can stop the ‘Shia’ Houthis. They are seeking to make a struggle that is essentially about power, money and territory a sectarian struggle.”
“Aqap are up there on the list of worries that keep people in our capitals up at night. They invented the non-metallic IED and, through Inspire magazine, Aqap is the powerhouse of the relatively lone gunman.”
Both the White House and the State Department said cooperation on counter-terrorism continues despite Yemen’s present disarray. Obama administrationspokesman Josh Earnest said the US had made “investments” in Yemen’s government. “We continue a strong counter-terrorism partnership with the national security infrastructure of Yemen,” he said, “and we continue to be very vigilant to counter Aqap.”
State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said the US was in contact with “a range of officials” and still considers Hadi the nation’s current president. But she articulated a policy of wait-and-see with regard to Yemen’s future, calling the Houthis “a legitimate political constituency” and saying “it’s up to the Yemeni people to determine what their future is.”
“We’re not naive,” Psaki said, but she stressed that the US’s current emphasis was that Yemen’s politics play out in peaceful transition. She said the US would watch whether the Houthis abide by recent assurances that they do not pose a threat to American interests.
Experts say the relationship that matters most to the US is with Yemen’s “deep state” – the security and intelligence forces that wield outsize power and influence in many repressive countries. The US budgeted $45m in non-military aid to Yemen in 2014 but has separately supported the country’s security forces for years. Whether those forces continue to cooperate, are subsumed by Houthi rebels, or are pulled too deeply into the civil war will determine much of whether the US can maintain a presence in Yemen.
A parliamentary session on Friday did nothing to restore any semblance of stability after the government collapsed on Thursday night. One day earlier, state media reported Hadi had agreed to power-sharing demands made by the Houthis after they shelled his palace and house, kidnapped his chief aide and overran essential state institutions.
The apparent concession was redundant within hours though, when Hadi, the prime minister and his cabinet resigned en masse, blindsiding the Houthis, who thought they had secured political control.
Sana’a was eerily quiet on Friday, locals reported, with tension palpable in all public places and in cafes that would normally be bustling on the first day of the weekend.
Political and military leaders were refusing to take calls, and all embassies remained closed.
The US relationship with Yemen’s presidents has been so critical that it has been handled personally by President Barack Obama’s chief counter-terrorism aides: the White House’s Lisa Monaco and her predecessor, John Brennan, now the CIA director.
Much of the US-Yemeni military relationship, which the Obama administration has prioritised in order to fight Aqap, runs between the two countries’ special-operations forces. US commandos have nurtured their Yemeni counterparts, who have received many millions’ worth of helicopters, night-vision goggles, transport aircraft and surveillance equipment.
No comments:
Post a Comment