The Election Threat / Abbas can dismiss only himself

By Danny Rubinstein

"......But according to Hamas spokesmen, such as member of parliament Salah Bardawil, the chairman cannot dissolve parliament. And most Palestinian legal experts concur. In other words, Abu Mazen can only dismiss himself, and then elections would be held only for the presidency. There is a precedent for this: After Yasser Arafat died, elections were held for the presidency only, and Abbas won. Parliamentary elections were held only later, which Hamas won, by a large majority.

The possibility of holding new elections has been raised often recently, mainly by Abu Mazen's associates, as a way to get rid of the Hamas government. Abbas even discussed this issue with members of the Palestinian Central Elections Commission. Such discussions accelerate every time efforts to form a unity government fail.

Lately, a unity government has looked more unattainable than ever. During his last trip to Gaza, Abbas announced that the talks on forming such a government had hit an impasse. He has made similar announcements in the past, and usually Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh responds that the negotiations must continue. This time, however, Haniyeh's response was different: He agreed that the parties have been unable to bridge their differences, and to underscore these differences, announced during a visit to Tehran that Iran constitutes the Palestinians' strategic depth, and there will be no compromises and no recognition of Israel.

One of Haniyeh's spokesmen, Minister for Refugee Affairs Atef Adwan, challenged Abbas: "It's interesting that in all your talks with Israel, you never said that negotiations have reached an impasse. Only with us do you use such language."

The idea of holding new elections is Abu Mazen's way of trying to extricate himself from the mess by threatening Hamas, on the assumption that the Hamas government is weak - as evidenced by the demonstrations of policemen and other civil servants who are not being paid regularly.

But Hamas leaders are not frightened; they feel strong. The money that arrives in suitcases, mainly from Iran, suffices to pay some salaries; Hamas organized a large and successful demonstration in Gaza this weekend that urged Haniyeh not to resign; and the Palestinian public talks about how the rest of the world is evidently getting used to the PA's government of Islamic zealots. "