في الوقت الذي قدمت وسائل الإعلام الإسرائيلي المزيد من الشواهد على طابع التعاون الأمني والاستراتيجي بينالسعوديةوإسرائيل، حذر مركز أبحاث إسرائيلي مرموق من التداعيات الخطيرة التي قد تترتب على السياسات الداخلية والخارجية التي يتبناها ولي العهد السعوديمحمد بن سلمان، محذرا من أنه قد يلقى نفس المصير الذي انتهى إليه شاه إيران.
وفي ورقة صدرت عنه بالإنكليزية ونشرت على موقعه اليوم، قال "مركز بيغنالسادات للدراسات الاستراتيجية"، التابع لجامعة "بار إيلان"، ثاني أكبر الجامعات الإسرائيلية، إن إجراءات بن سلمان الداخلية الدراماتيكية الهادفة إلى تعزيز قدرته على الإمساك بدفة الأمور "قد أضعفت المؤسسة الأمنية السعودية"، منوها إلى أن أكثر هذه الخطوات إسهاما في إضعاف منظومة الأمن في المملكة تتمثل في إقدامه على "التخلص من منظومة التوازنات والكوابح، سواء تلك التي اعتمدت على حضور الأمراء المنافسين أو تلك التي تعتمد على الانتماءات القبلية".
وحسب الورقة التي أعدها المستشرق البرفسور هيليل فريش، فإنه عندما يتزامن إضعاف المؤسسة الأمنية مع تفجر معارضة في طول المملكة وعرضها يعني أن بن سلمان قد يلقى مصير شاهإيران، الذي على الرغم من أنه نجح في تحويل إيران في حينه إلى قوة إقليمية يحسب لها حساب، إلا أنه سقط ضحية تعاظم المعارضة الداخلية ضده"، على حد تعبير الباحث الإسرائيلي.
ونوه فريش إلى أن ما يضاعف خطورة السياسات والإجراءات التي يقدم عليها بن سلمان تكمن في حقيقة أنها تأتي في ظل تعاظم الخطر الخارجي، الذي تمثله إيران.
وأضاف أن "نظام التوازنات الداخلي الذي حفظ استقرار السعودية استند إلى أدوار يقوم بها مئات وحتى الآلاف من الأمراء ويراعي الخلفيات القبلية"، مشيرا إلى أن المؤسسة العسكرية السعودية أديرت تاريخياً وفق معادلة "الصراع التنافسي"، إذ أن مؤسسة الجيش تتبع فريقا من العائلة المالكة، في حين يتبع الحرس الوطني فريقا آخر، في الوقت الذي لعبت المؤسسة الدينية دورا في المجال الأمني بشكل غير مباشر من خلال أنشطة هيئة الأمر بالمعروف.
ولفت فريش الأنظار إلى أن دفع بن سلمان نحو "مركزية" المؤسسة الأمنية وتوحيدها ينطوي على مخاطر كبيرة، لأنه يزيد من مخاطر إضعافها بسبب تغير الولاءات الشخصية والقبلية.
وحسب الورقة، فإن ما يفاقم الخطورة على مستقبل السعودية كدولة يتمثل في حقيقة أن العقدين الأخيرين شهدا تهاوي الدعائم الرئيسة للبيئة الأمنية التي تضمن ازدهار واستقرار المملكة، مشددا على أن هذه الدعائم "تتبخر الواحدة تلو الأخرى في ظل تزايد تعاظم حضور إيران وتعاظم قوتها".
وأشار إلى أن أول دعائم الأمن السعودي التي تهاوت تمثلت في توقف الولايات المتحدة عن لعب دور "شرطي المنطقة"، وهو الدور الذي راهنت عليه السعودية تاريخيا لضمان سيادتها وأمنها.
وحسب الورقة فإن السعوديين صدموا عندما اكتشفوا أنه لا يوجد ثمة خلاف جوهري بين الرئيس الأميركي السابق باراك أوباما وخليفته الحالي دونالد ترامب، على اعتبار أن الأخير يتبنى سياسة الأول القائمة على تجنب التورط في صراعات مسلحة في الخارج.
وأوضحت أن ترامب يعي أن الجمهور الأميركي الذي يؤيده "يرفض استخدام السلاح والجنود الأميركيين للحفاظ على السعودية، لأن هذا الجمهور يذكر أن منفذي هجمات 11 سبتمبر كانوا من السعوديين".
ويسجل فريش أن البيئة الإقليمية تزداد سوءا بالنسبة للسعودية، مشيرا إلى أن السعودية لا يمكنها أن تعتمد على مصر في التصدي للتحديات الاستراتيجية التي تواجهها، مشيرا إلى أن المؤسسة الأمنية المصرية "بالكاد تكون قادرة على مواجهة عناصر تنظيم ولاية سيناء الذي ينتشر على مساحة ألف كلم في المنطقة الفاصلة بين العريش ورفح"، على حد تعبيره.
وتعيد الورقة للأذهان حقيقة أن السعودية، بسقوط نظام صدام حسين، خسرت العراق بوصفه "منطقة عازلة بينها وبين إيران"، وهو ما فاقم المخاطر على الأمن السعودي.
ولا تتوقف "المصائب بالنسبة للسعودية عند هذا الحد"، كما يقول الباحث الإسرائيلي، منوها إلى أن التعاون الأميركي مع القوات العراقية، التي هي تحت سيطرة الشيعة من مؤيدي إيران وإضعاف القوى السنية، فاقم خطورة العراق بالنسبة للسعودية.
وتوضح الورقة أن نجاح حزب الله وإيران وبالتعاون مع روسيا في إنقاذ نظام الأسد وتمكينه من إعادة بسط سيطرته على مناطق كبيرة في سورية عزز الوجود الإيراني، مما شدد من حدة الطوق الإيراني حول السعودية.
وشددت الدراسة على أن ما تقدم يدلل على أنه لا يمكن الحديث عن توازن قوى بين الرياض وطهران.
ويعود فريش للتحذير مجددا من أن تزامن التهديدات الخارجية مع نتائج السياسات الداخلية التي تبناها بن سلمان، والتي ستفضي إلى إضعاف مؤسسته الأمنية، يزيد من احتمالات انتهائه إلى نفس مصير شاه إيران.
مساعدات إسرائيلية للرياض
في سياق آخر، ألمح معلق إسرائيلي إلى أن إسرائيل تعكف حاليا على تقديم مساعدات كبيرة للسعودية في حربها في اليمن.
وفي مقال نشره اليوم موقع صحيفة "هارتس"، قال الكاتب حمي شليف إنه "ربما سيأتي اليوم الذي سيتضح حجم المساعدات الواسعة التي قدمتها إسرائيل للسعودية في حربها في اليمن".
وأعاد شليف الذي يعمل معلقا للشؤون الأميركية في الصحيفة، للأذهان حقيقة أنه سبق لإسرائيل أن قدمت مساعدات عسكرية كبيرة للسعودية في ستينيات القرن الماضي.
وأشار شليف، إلى ما سبقه إليه عدد من المسؤولين الإسرائيليين، وضمنهم وكيل الخارجية السابق دوري غولد، من أن كلا من جهاز المخابرات الإسرائيلي للمهام الخارجية "الموساد" وجهاز الاستخبارات البريطاني نفذا عام 1964 عملية "روطيف"، والتي قام خلالها سلاح الطيران الإسرائيلي بإنزال عتاد عسكري، غنمته إسرائيل في حربها ضد مصر عام 1956، على القوات الموالية للأئمة داخل اليمن، التي كانت تقاتل الجيش المصري الذي أرسله الرئيس جمال عبد الناصر، وذلك بعد التوصل لتفاهم مسبق مع السعودية.
من ناحيته لفت عوديد غرانوت معلق الشؤون العربية إلى أن "التحالف غير المكتوب بين السعودية وإسرائيل يخرج للعلن"، مشددا على أن تطابق المصالح بين الرياض وتل أبيب يدفع بقوة نحو هذا التحول.
وفي تحليل نشره موقع صحيفة "يسرائيل هيوم" أمس الجمعة، أوضح غرانوت أن الفترة السابقة شهدت "طوفانا من المؤشرات العلنية على عمق توثق العلاقات بين السعودية والرياض".
Sources confirm Prince Miteb, son of late King Abdullah, is among six princes who needed hospital treatment following arrest in Saudi purge By David Hearst Link
Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, the son of the late King Abdullah who was once considered a future crown prince, was beaten and tortured, along with five other princes, when he was arrested and interrogated in Riyadh during the ongoing political purge in the kingdom, Middle East Eye has confirmed.
All six princes were admitted to hospital in the 24 hours following their arrest. One of the men was in such a bad condition that he was admitted to the hospital’s intensive care unit - treatment which occurs when there is a high risk to the life of a patient, such as organ failure, from the heart, lungs, kidneys, or high blood pressure.
Hospital staff were told that the injuries sustained in each case were the result of “suicide attempts”. All had been severely beaten, but none of them had fractures. The marks on their bodies were consistent with the imprints left by military boots.
At least 17 of those detained were taken to hospital, but the number maltreated in the purge ordered by the current Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is certainly higher, according to sources who MEE is unable to identify because of concerns for their safety.
MEE has learned that medical units have now been installed in the Ritz-Carlton hotel where the beatings have taken place. This is to prevent torture victims from being taken to hospital.
MEE has also learned that in addition to the Ritz-Carlton, the detainees were also held in two other hotels including the Courtyard, Diplomatic Quarter hotel which is across the road from the Ritz-Carlton.
Both the Ritz-Carlton and the Courtyard are run by the Marriott International hotel chain. A spokesperson for Marriott International told MEE on Friday that the Ritz-Carlton and the Courtyard, Diplomatic Quarter were “not operating as traditional hotels for the time being”.
Both hotels appeared to be booked out and not admitting guests for the whole of December, according to their websites on Friday.
Prince Miteb, who is 65, served as minister of the National Guard, a military force drawn from tribes loyal to the House of Saud whose main role is to protect the royal family, from 2013 until his arrest on 4 November.
Prince Miteb has a background in the military and was considered among the possible contenders to inherit his father's throne prior to the appointment of the current King Salman as crown prince in 2012.
MEE can also confirm that Prince Abdul Aziz bin Fahd, the son of the late King Fahd who was arrested after this year’s Hajj in early September, was admitted to hospital close to the time of his arrest, although his fate is still unclear.
Courtyard by Marriott Riyadh Diplomatic Quarter (Marriott)
The purge, conducted in the name of an anti-corruption drive, has also involved the freezing of around 1,700 bank accounts.
According to one US source, bin Salman has claimed he intends to collect $1 trillion from the princes and businessmen that he has arrested.
The Financial Times newspaper reported on Thursday that Saudi authorities were offering deals to detainees, including billionaire tycoons such as Al-Waleed bin Talal bin Abdulaziz, in which they would surrender up to 70 percent of their wealth in return for their freedom.
The arrests, interrogation and mistreatment being conducted in hotels owned by a US-based chain with an international reputation has raised questions about how Marriott International has allowed its facilities to be used in such a way.
MEE asked Marriott International to clarify what its company policy was on allowing its premises to be used as detention facilities and asked for comment on allegations that detainees were being tortured.
A spokesperson said: "The Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh and the Courtyard, Diplomatic Quarter are not operating as traditional hotels for the time being. We continue to work with the local authorities on this matter.
"We remain in close contact with the guests and groups holding existing reservations; working with them to assist with their reservations and minimise disruption to their travel and event plans."
لطالما كان التقارب الإسرائيلي السعودي مثارًا للجدل مع ترشيح التسريبات بوجود تفاهمات متقدمة بين تل أبيب والرياض لحلف مشترك لمواجهة النفوذ الإيراني بالشرق الأوسط، أتت المقابلة الحصرية التي أجرتها صحيفة "إيلاف" الإلكترونية التابعة لبلاط القصر السعودي، اليوم الخميس، مع رئيس هيئة أركان الجيش الإسرائيلي، غادي آيزنكوت، لتقطع الشك باليقين وتؤكد عمق العلاقات والتنسيق الأمني والسياسي بين البلدين.
آيزنكوت الذي غالبا ما يمتنع عن تخصيص وإجراء مقابلات حصرية حتى لوسائل الإعلام الإسرائيلية إلا في المناسبات "الوطنية" والأعياد اليهودية، بدا متشجعا ليخص الصحيفة السعودية بهذه المقابلة التي استحوذت على اهتمام وسائل الإعلام الإسرائيلية، حيث اختار بعضها للترويج والتهليل والمديح ليس لمضمون ومحتوى المقابلة، التي بجوهرها وثقت بتصريحات سابقة لرئيس هيئة الأركان، بل للمنبر الإعلامي السعودي والقصر الملكي بالرياض.
ومع تسارع الأحداث وضبابية المشهد بالذات على الساحة السورية، اختار آيزنكوت أن يخص السعودية بهذه المقابلة بالتزامن مع تصريحات وزير الخارجية الروسي، سيرغي لافروف، الذي قال إن بلاده لم تتعهد بضمان انسحاب القوات الموالية لإيران من سورية، معتبرا أن وجود إيران في سورية "شرعي".
وهدف رئيس أركان الجيش الإسرائيلي من خلال المقابلة الحصرية إعادة ترتيب الأوراق مع الحلفاء بالرياض، والتأكيد على رهان تل أبيب سياسيا وعسكريا على ولي العهد السعودي محمد بن سلمان، لتعزيز الحلف مع "الدول السنية المعتدلة" لمواجهة النفوذ الإيراني في الشرق الأوسط.
حملت المقابلة مع آيزنكوت وتوقيتها دلالات متعددة، وإن بدت في جوهرها تحريضا على إيران ومشروعها النووي، إلا أنها عكست التناغم السعودي الإسرائيلي بكل ما يتعلق بالإستراتيجية حيال القضايا الحارقة المشتعلة بالشرق الأوسط، فمن مقر وزارة الأمن في تل أبيب اختار آيزنكوت أن يوجه رسائل إلى العالم العربي، وهي رسائل بمضامين سياسية ودبلوماسية، لكنها لا تخلوا من الأبعاد العسكرية.
ولعل أبرز هذه الرسائل موجهة لإيران بأن إسرائيل خرجت من السر للعلن لتعلن دعمها للسعودية، كما حملت رسائل ومؤشرات للرياض وحتى للدول التي تسميها بـ"المعتدلة"، بالإعلان عن دعم تل أبيب المطلق للإجراءات والسياسات التي يعتمدها ولي العهد محمد بن سلمان ليس بالسعودية وحسب بل بالشرق الأوسط، والتوجه نحو تدعيم الحلف مع "الدول السنية المعتدلة" بقيادة الرياض، والذي تمادى رئيس الحكومة الإسرائيلية، بنيامين نتنياهو بالترويج له دون الإفصاح والكشف عن ملامحه.
تصريحات آيزنكوت لم تخلُ من التطمينات إلى ولي العهد السعودي، مفادها بأنه ليس وحيدا في مواجهة إيران سواء بسورية أو باليمن، وتحت ذريعة "العدو" المشترك، والمد الإيراني والزحف الشيعي بالشرق الأوسط عبر سورية ولبنان واليمن، أكد رئيس هيئة أركان الجيش الإسرائيلي على ضرورة الحلف مع "الدول السنية المعتدلة" ليس فقط سياسيا بل عسكريا أيضا.
غالبا ما كانت التصريحات الداعمة للسعودية وبن سلمان صادرة عن السياسيين بإسرائيل، إلا أنها أتت بهذه المرحلة من العسكريين للمضي قدما في مواجهة التحديات الأمنية والعسكرية، حيث شدد آيزنكوت أن للسعودية وإسرائيل مصالح مشتركة ضد التعامل مع إيران، لكنه بذات الوقت نفى أن يكون الجيش الإسرائيلي بصدد شن حربا على حزب الله حليف إيران بسورية ولبنان.
إلى جانب هذا الدعم المعنوي الإسرائيلي إلى بن سلمان، لم يتردد آيزنكوت بالإشادة بالجيش الإسرائيلي وجاهزيته والتفاخر بالقدرات والترسانة وقوة الردع التي يتميز بها جيش بلاده، وبعقلية العسكري، سلط آيزنكوت الضوء على الكثير من القضايا والملفات الشائكة في سورية ولبنان والقضايا الإقليمية وتقاطع المصالح الإسرائيلية مع الدول العربية وأهمها السعودية، داعيا إلى ضرورة إقامة حلف لمواجهة المد الشيعي والمشروع النووي الإيراني.
وبنبرة عسكرية فوقية واستعلائية، خاطب آيزنكوت السعودية ومن معها في "الحلف المعتدل" الذي تصبو إليه إسرائيل، قائلا إن "دولة إسرائيل هي الآن في أفضل حالاتها العسكرية، فقد تطورنا كثيرا، فلدينا القوة العسكرية والاستخبارات وسلاح الجو والمشاة بأفضل الأحوال والجميع يعرف ذلك ونحظى بالتقدير من الدول المعتدلة في المنطقة".
اختار آيزنكوت الاصطفاف بذات الخندق مع السعودية ليس لمجرد تقاطع المصالح بين البلدين، بل للتسريع لإقامة الحلف مع ازدياد الهواجس السعودية من إيران وحزب الله، وهي الهواجس التي تروج لها وتهول منها تل أبيب سعيا منها للإسراع في الإيقاع بالسعودية بالحاضنة الإسرائيلية التي تواجه عزلة بالشرق الأوسط، خاصة بعد أن منيت بصفعة من روسيا بسورية وتردد حليفها في البيت الأبيض من تبني مطالبها وإستراتيجياتها بكل ما يتعلق بسورية، فيما تعول إسرائيل على صفقة القرن التي يحركها الرئيس دونالد ترامب، التي تمهد لتصفية القضية الفلسطينية وتطبيع العلاقات ما بين إسرائيل والدول العربية التي هزمتها إسرائيل عسكريا وتتطلع بالمرحلة القادمة لاحتواء سياسيا.
Court sources say alarm bells are ringing in Amman over reports Riyadh ready to trade Palestinian right of return as part of peace deal with Israel By David Hearst Link
Saudi Arabia is bypassing Jordan in its headlong rush to normalise relations with Israel, offering concessions on Palestinian refugees which could endanger the stability of the Hashemite kingdom, and compromise its status as the custodian of the holy sites in Jerusalem, a senior official close to the royal court in Amman has told Middle East Eye.
The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of treating Jordan with contempt. "He deals with Jordanians and the Palestinian Authority as if they are the servants and he is the master and we have to follow what he does. He neither consults nor listens to us," the official said.
Half the population of Jordan are Palestinians and if there is official talk in Riyadh about ending the right of return, this will cause turmoil within the kingdom
- Senior official in Jordan's Royal Court
The alarm bells went off in Amman following semi-official leaks suggesting that Saudi Arabia was ready to surrender the Palestinian right of return in exchange for putting Jerusalem under international sovereignty as part of a Middle East peace deal that would facilitate the creation of a Saudi-Israeli alliance to confront Iran.
Such a deal would compromise the special status of Jordan as the custodian of the Haram al-Sharif, as stated in the peace treaty Jordan struck with Israel in 1994.
"Half the population of Jordan are Palestinians and if there is official talk in Riyadh about ending the right of return, this will cause turmoil within the kingdom. These are sensitive issues both for Jordanians from the East Bank and Palestinians," the official said.
Jordanian backlash
In fact, 65 percent of the population of Jordan are Palestinian, mostly from the occupied West Bank. They have Jordanian citizenship and access to medical care, but they are under-represented in parliament, and have little or no presence in the Jordanian army and security services.
Furthermore, any attempt to give the Palestinians more rights in Jordan would provoke a backlash among the Jordanian population, the official observed.
He said any final status deal involving Palestinian refugees would have to include a compensation package to Jordan, which the kingdom would expect to receive as a state.
On the deal itself, the Jordanian official said that what was on offer to Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, was worse than before.
“He (MbS) is concerned about the normalisation of the Saudi relationship with Israel and he does not care about anything else. He needs a fig leaf to start off this normalisation," the official said.
A separate Western source in contact with some Saudi princes independently confirmed the importance of Israel as a factor behind a wave of recent arrests in Riyadh targeting princes, business tycoons and other influential Saudis.
Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Jordan's King Abdullah, pictured at Amman airport prior to March's Arab League summit (AFP)
He said several of the people arrested under the guise of an anti-corruption campaign had acted as "gatekeepers for Saudi funding" going to Israel. He suggested that MbS wanted to keep a monopoly of these contacts for himself. For this reason, he questioned whether those arrested would be put on public trial, or whether there would be secret trials.
This source dismissed the notion that what was a taking place in Saudi was a genuine anti-corruption drive: "The Saudi family do not rule Saudi Arabia. They own it. That is their view. They created the country. They own it, and therefore they cannot be corrupt."
The Royal Court in Amman is also concerned by the pressure being applied on Jordan to join an anti-Iran campaign and the potentially dire consequences of what it considers “reckless” Saudi policies.
“Things in Syria are going to the benefit of Iran and its allies. The Jordanian approach was to try to open channels with Iran and Russia and to calm down the Iranians and have some sort of agreement in the south," MEE's source said.
“But the Saudis are in full confrontation mode, destabilising Lebanon. If Iran wants to retaliate, it could retaliate across the whole region, which could affect Jordan directly and that is the last thing Jordan would want them to do."
When pressed by the Saudis, Jordan scaled back its diplomatic relations with Qatar, but notably did not cut them as Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt did on the day the blockade was announced. Jordan did, however, close the office of Al Jazeera, the Qatari television network which Saudi has called on Doha to shut down.
Unlike the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, King Abdullah has not been invited to go to Riyadh to express these frustrations in person. He has visited Bahrain, but went home shortly after.
Broken promises
The third source of Jordanian concern about the way Saudi is behaving is economic.
Jordan has lost money as a result of the regional boycott of Qatar, and is currently losing income it earned through the transit of goods. This is a result of the re-opening of a crossing between Saudi and Iraq at Arar, a crossing that had been closed for 27 years since Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Before Arar opened, all trade from Iraq passed through Jordan. With the opening of Arar, Iraq will start to use Saudi ports in the Red Sea to export to Europe, instead of the Jordanian port of Aqaba.
There is anger in the royal palace about promises of aid from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but no signs of the cash arriving in its bank accounts.
A separate Jordanian source told MEE: “The Jordanian king and the Jordanian authority are angry about promises made by the Saudis and the Emiratis to compensate Jordan for its loss of income with Qatar, and the fact that nothing has been received from them so far."
Jordan's Aqaba port is losing business as a consequence of the blockade of Qatar (Creative Commons)
A fourth Jordanian grievance is MbS’s recent announcement of plans to build the high-tech mega city of Neom which is set to stretch across the kingdom's borders into Jordan and Egypt. The official said that Jordan was "not well briefed" about the project, fostering the suspicion that the primary beneficiary in the city's construction will not be Jordan or Egypt, but Israel which has established a regional lead in high-tech exports.
He said there were "some positive comments" on the Jordanian side, but overall it reacted cautiously to the announcement.
The official doubted whether Israel would be stampeded into a war with Hezbollah and suggested that MbS had miscalculated the reaction to his offensive on Lebanon, following the Lebanese Prime Minister's Saad Hariri's sudden resignation in Riyadh earlier this month.
Hariri, who is a Saudi citizen with significant business interests in the country, has not yet returned to Beirut and Lebanese President Michel Aoun said on Wednesday that he believed he was being detained there.
"The analysis of Jordan is that neither Israel nor the US will go for a war, and that we Jordanians will be saddled with the consequences of a direct confrontation with Iran and we will pay the consequences for this," the official said.
استضاف برنامج "بلا حدود"رئيس المؤتمر الشعبي العام لفلسطينيي الخارج خبير القانون الدولي أنيس قاسم حول ما ورد في وسائل إعلام غربية عن ضغوط سعودية على الرئيس الفلسطيني محمود عباس للقبول بمبادرة جديدة لعملية السلام والتطبيع مع إسرائيل
I Introduce Crown Prince SADIM! Say What? What Is SADIM? He Is The Inverse of King Midas..... Everything King Midas Touched Turned Into Gold..... Everything Prince SADIM Touched Has Turned Into Dust! PLEASE WISH PRINCE SADIM MORE OF THE SAME
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia — With the tacit backing of his father, Saudi Arabia’s 32-year-old crown prince has established himself as the most powerful figure in the Arab world, rushing into confrontations on all sides at once.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman ordered the arrest of 11 princes in his royal family and nearly 200 members of the Saudi business elite, and has begun to take power from the kingdom’s conservative clerics. He has blockaded neighboring Qatar, accused Iran of acts of war and encouraged the resignation of Lebanon’s prime minister. And in Yemen, his armed forces are fighting an Iranian-aligned faction in an intractable war that created a humanitarian crisis.
The crown prince has moved so quickly that American officials and others worry that he is destabilizing the region. Signs of potential blowback are growing.
Investors, nervous about his plans, have been moving money out of the kingdom. Prince Mohammed has sought to counter the capital flight by squeezing detainees and others to surrender assets. He has presented the arrests as a campaign against corruption, but his targets call it a shakedown, and he has turned for advice to a former Egyptian security chief who has been pilloried at home for brutality and graft.
Prince Mohammed’s supporters say he is simply taking the drastic measures needed to turn around the kingdom’s graft-ridden and oil-dependent economy while pushing back against Iranian aggression.
But analysts around the region debate whether the headlong rush might be driven more by a desire to consolidate power before a possible royal succession, desperation for cash to pay for his plans or simply unchecked ambition to put his stamp on the broader Middle East. And despite President Trump’s enthusiasm for the prince, some in the State Department, the Pentagon and the intelligence agencies say they fear that his impulsiveness could both set back his own goals and destabilize the region.
“He’s decided he doesn’t do anything cautiously,” said Philip Gordon, the White House Middle East coordinator under President Barack Obama. But, Mr. Gordon said, “if the crown prince alienates too many other princes and other pillars of the regime, pursues costly regional conflicts and scares off foreign investors, he could undermine the prospects for the very reforms he is trying to implement.”
The extrajudicial arrests have spooked investors enough, analysts say, to extinguish the prince’s plans for an public stock offering of Aramco, the Saudi state oil company, in New York or London next year. It had been a centerpiece of his overhaul.
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President Trump and King Salman joined Arab leaders for a family photo in Riyadh in May.CreditStephen Crowley/The New York Times
The crown prince’s threats against Iran and Lebanon have raised the specter of wars that the Saudi military, already bogged down in Yemen, is ill-equipped to fight. Riyadh would be forced to depend on the United States or Israel in any new conflict.
His corruption purge at home, meanwhile, risks alienating parts of the royal family and the financial elite at a moment that would appear to demand unity, either to smooth a succession or to face off against Iran. As many as 17 people detained in the anti-corruption campaign have required medical treatment for abuse by their captors, according to a doctor from the nearest hospital and an American official tracking the situation.
The former Egyptian security chief, Habib el-Adli, said by one of his advisers and a former Egyptian interior minister to be advising Prince Mohammed, earned a reputation for brutality and torture under President Hosni Mubarak. His lawyers say he plans to appeal his recent sentence in absentia in Egypt to seven years in prison on charges of corruption.
Officials of the Saudi Royal Court referred press queries about these reports to the Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in Washington, where a spokeswoman, Fatimah Baeshen, said the embassy could not confirm or dispute them.
With the decline in the price of oil in recent years, Saudi Arabia has frozen projects and spent more than a third of its financial reserves, draining them to about $475 billion this fall from a peak of $737 billion in August 2014. At that burn rate, the kingdom has only a few years to lift its revenue or slash its spending to forestall a financial crisis.
Against that backdrop, the prince’s supporters argue that the anti-corruption campaign aims to recapture hundreds of billions of dollars that have leaked from the state budget through graft and self-dealing — money he needs to fund his development plans.
Prince Mohammed had appealed to the kingdom’s wealthy for months to invest in his modernization program. But some groused that his plans — like a new $500 billion business hub “for the dreamers of the world,” built from scratch and fueled entirely by clean energy — were ill-conceived and grandiose, and instead of investing at home they quietly moved their assets abroad.
Now, he is no longer merely asking. The Saudi government is pressing some of those detained and others still at large to sign over large sums in exchange for better treatment, according to an American official briefed on the crackdown and associates of the royal family. Employees of some of those arrested had been summoned months before to answer questions about their bosses, a sign that the purge was planned well in advance.
A senior Saudi official defending the crackdown said this week that it was meant to show that the old rules of business in the kingdom had changed.
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Prince Mohammed kissing the hand of Prince Mohammed bin Nayef at the royal palace in Mecca in June.CreditAl-Ekhbariya, via Associated Press
“Corruption is at every level, and there are hundreds of billions of riyals that are lost from the national economy every year,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive government matters. “The point here was mainly to shock the system, to send a message that this will not be tolerated anymore and that nobody is immune.”
Corruption has been so endemic for so long — from inflated government contracts for large projects to simple bribes to obtain passports — that countless Saudis have participated. Yet, some princes with reputations for conspicuous corruption appear to have been left alone, raising questions about who is being targeted, and why.
Other signs suggest that Prince Mohammed may also be seeking to thwart perceived rivals. In June, he and his father stripped the titles of crown prince and interior minister from Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 58, temporarily confining him to his palace. Admirers of the ousted crown prince were relieved last week when a video surfaced showing him moving freely through a family funeral, receiving kisses on his shoulder in a show of deference and loyalty from a procession of well-wishers.
That display of his continued popularity, however, may have been too much for the younger Prince Mohammed, who the next day ordered the seizure of the former crown prince’s assets, along with those of his wife and daughters, according to two family associates.
Ms. Baeshen, the Saudi embassy spokeswoman, said she could not comment on any potential investigations.
Some American officials suspect that Prince Mohammed may be rushing to lock down the levers of power in anticipation of a formal abdication by his father, King Salman, who scholars and Western officials say could be suffering from dementia.
When President Trump visited Riyadh for a summit meeting last summer, the king remained seated as he struggled to read a prepared statement. His speech was at times weak, halting or slurred. He seldom speaks publicly. Saudi officials, however, insist his mental capacities are sound.
Prince Mohammed’s supporters argue that Saudi Arabia’s recent threats against Iran and Lebanon came in response to provocations beyond his control. As he was preparing his anti-corruption roundup, they say, Tehran’s allies in Yemen launched an Iranian-made missile in the direction of Riyadh, where it was intercepted over the outskirts of the city. The Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, resigned his position the same day with a televised speech from Riyadh that accused Iran and its Lebanese client Hezbollah of sowing “discord, devastation and destruction” in the region.
But many, including current and former American diplomats, say Prince Mohammed’s boldness also reflects his conviction that he has the support of Mr. Trump.
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Mr. Trump meeting with Prince Mohammed, center, in the Oval Office in March.CreditStephen Crowley/The New York Times
Even in the last days of the Obama administration, another Persian Gulf royal who had already forged deep ties around Washington, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan of Abu Dhabi began to promote his Saudi counterpart to the incoming Trump team as a useful ally. Both princes appear to have formed a particular bond with Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, who at 36 is a contemporary of the young Saudi prince.
Mr. Trump chose Saudi Arabia for the first foreign trip of his presidency, and Prince Mohammed and Mr. Kushner have built such a strong rapport that other American officials say they are not briefed on what the two discuss.
“Jared is a bit of a black hole,” said one State Department official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss frustration with the White House. “There is no sense of the positions he has advocated. We can only guess, based on what he has done and where he has been.”
The official added: “The Emiratis and the Saudis have been very careful to cultivate him and bring him along” toward their “confrontational posture in the region.”
A White House official who also insisted on anonymity disputed the characterization of Mr. Kushner, saying he regularly briefed the State Department and National Security Council on his trips and conversations.
Mr. Kushner made his third visit to the kingdom this year — this time unannounced until his return to Washington — in late October, when American officials say he stayed up late talking with Prince Mohammed at his ranch. The sweep of arrests unfolded days later, and Mr. Trump was quick to applaud, although several White House officials said the Saudis gave Mr. Kushner no heads up on what was about to take place.
“I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing,” President Trump said on Twitter after the arrests had begun. “Some of those they are harshly treating have been ‘milking’ their country for years.”
Ms. Baeshen, the embassy spokeswoman, said that Saudi Arabia and the United States “enjoy a wide range of cooperative discussions” but that “domestic affairs are just that: domestic affairs.”
The State Department official, though, said that its diplomats, the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency all felt “growing alarm” that Prince Mohammed “is behaving recklessly without sufficient consideration to the likely consequences of his behavior, and that has the potential to damage U.S. interests.”
Courtyard by Marriott Riyadh Diplomatic Quarter (Marriott)
Saudi Arabia's King Salman and Jordan's King Abdullah, pictured at Amman airport prior to March's Arab League summit (AFP)
Jordan's Aqaba port is losing business as a consequence of the blockade of Qatar (Creative Commons)
