Saturday, August 27, 2016

عندما فشل الوكيل تدخل الكفيل: روسيا في سوريا مثالاً

د. فيصل القاسم



عندما نراجع شريط ذكريات الثورة السورية على مدى أكثر من خمس سنوات، تصبح الصورة أكثر وضوحاً. ويصبح المشهد عارياً بلا رتوش. لقد سمعنا كثيراً في الماضي أن الاستعمار خرج من الباب، لكنه عاد من النافذة. ومازلنا نسمع أن الكثير من الأنظمة العربية الحاكمة ليست سوى واجهات إما للمستعمر القديم، أو للقوى الكبرى. وقد كان المفكر التونسي هشام جعيط قد وصف الكثير من الحكومات العربية بأنها ليست حكومات وطنية تمثل شعوبها أو تعمل من أجل بلادها، بل هي مجرد وكلاء لقوى خارجية في بلادها، فكما أن الشركات لها مندوبون ووكلاء عامون في كل بلدان العالم كشركات السيارات والساعات والكحول والألبسة، فإن القوى الكبرى لها وكلاء في بلادنا يسمونهم حكاماً. لقد ظللنا نسمع عن هذه الأمور، وكنا نعتقد أنها مجرد فذلكات مثقفين ويساريين، لكن الثورة السورية أثبتت ذلك بشكل صارخ

لقد كان النظام السوري تحديداً ينعت كل الدول العربية التي تعارضه بأنها مجرد توابع لأمريكا وأنها لا تمتلك قرارها، بل هي مجرد وكالات غربية. وقد ظننا لكثرة ما سمعنا الإعلام السوري وهو يقوم بتخوين العرب الآخرين واعتبارهم مجرد عملاء للغرب، ظننا أن النظام صاحب قراره، وأن القرار الوطني المستقل الوحيد الموجود في العالم العربي هو في سوريا فقط. لكن كما هو معروف فإن حبل الكذب قصير جداً مهما طال. لقد جاءت الثورة السورية لتكشف بما لا يدع مجالاً للشك أن النظام السوري مثله مثل بقية الأنظمة مجرد وكيل، وهو لا يختلف أبداً عن الوكلاء التجاريين الذين ذكرهم هشام جعيط.
بدأت تبعية النظام لروسيا تظهر في السنوات الأولى من الثورة عبر الموقف الروسي في مجلس الأمن، فكلما كانت هناك محاولة لإدانة النظام أو اتخاذ إجراءات معينة ضده عقاباً له على ما يفعله بسوريا والسوريين، كانت روسيا ومعها الصين تلجأ فوراً إلى استخدام حق النقض الفيتو ضد أي قرار دولي يستهدف النظام. طبعاً كانت روسيا دائماً تبرر استخدامها للفيتو لحماية النظام بأنها ضد التدخل الدولي في شؤون الدول، وأنها بذلك تحمي القانون الدولي بالدرجة الأولى، لكن مع مرور الأيام بدأنا نكتشف أن روسيا تحترم القانون الدولي كما تحترمه أمريكا تماماً، فعندما يكون في مصلحتها ترفع من شأنه، وتعتمده وثيقة قانونية، وعندما يقف عائقاً في طريق تحقيق مشاريعها تدوسه بأرجلها غير مأسوف عليه كما فعلت عندما غزت سوريا عسكرياً. ما الفرق بين الغزو الأمريكي للعراق والغزو الروسي لسوريا؟
لم يكن استخدام الفيتو الروسي في مجلس الأمن الدولي حماية للقانون الدولي أبداً، بل كان دفاعاً مفضوحاً عن محميتها السورية وعميلها في دمشق. كما تحمي أمريكا توابعها، فإن روسيا تحمي تابعها. لقد كان الفيتو الروسي المرحلة الأولى لحماية النظام، لكن عندما بدأت الأمور تفلت من يديها، وبدأ النظام يفقد قدرته على مواجهة الثوار، لم تعد تكتفي روسيا بالفيتو، بل كان لا بد من التدخل المباشر. وقد بدأت تباشير التدخل المباشر عندما لعبت روسيا دور الوسيط بين النظام وأمريكا لتجريد سوريا من سلاحها الكيماوي الاستراتيجي. لقد كانت روسيا تعلم أنه لو بدأ الناتو بقصف النظام لربما خسرت روسيا مستعمرتها السورية إلى الأبد، فكان إذاً لا بد من التوسط للحيلولة دون انهيار تابعها في دمشق.
وبعد ذلك حاولت روسيا تزويد النظام بكل أنواع السلاح والخبراء، لا بل إنها دعمت كل حلفائه كالإيرانيين وغيرهم عسكرياً وسياسياً لحماية النظام، لكن ذلك لم يحم النظام، وعندما أصبح الثوار على تخوم الساحل السوري معقل النظام، سمعنا فجأة عن زيارة مفاجئة للرئيس السوري إلى موسكو.

وقد بدأت مفاعيل تلك الزيارة تظهر بعد أسابيع عندما بدأت روسيا تغزو سوريا غزواً عسكرياً حقيقياً، من خلال إقامة القواعد العسكرية المفضوحة في حميميم واستباحة كل الأجواء والأراضي السورية من شرقها إلى غربها ومن جنوبها إلى شمالها.
إن ما يحصل في سوريا يذكرنا بفرق المصارعة تماماً، فعندما ينهار مصارع يخرج من الحلبة، ويصعد محله مصارع جديد لمواجهة الخصم. لقد خرج النظام من الحلبة منذ زمن، وتحول جيشه إلى مجرد ميليشيا تقاتل إلى جانب الميليشيات الأجنبية التي استجلبها لحمايته، وعندما انهارت الميليشيات الإيرانية وتوابعها، جاء دور روسيا المدير الحقيقي للعبة السورية لعلها تفوز بالجولة الأخيرة وتحسم الأمر لصالحها، فتدخلت، في الحلبة كما يتدخل المصارع عندما يجد أن شريكه قد انهزم. وقد صدق المعارض السوري المحسوب على النظام لؤي حسين عندما قال لجمهور النظام: إياكم أن تظنوا أنكم انتصرتم، فأنتم مجرد توابع.
وأضاف حسين حرفياً: «من دون أدنى شك لم ينتصر النظام إطلاقا إلا ببقاء قياداته على كراسيهم. وهذا الأمر لا يحتاج لكبير جهد للتأكد منه. فالقوات العسكرية الضاربة في أغلب المناطق هي قوات غير سورية، هي «حلفاء الجيش السوري» كما يسميهم الإعلام الموالي. النظام باع نفسه وقراره وأرضه وسماءه لأي غريب مستعد أن يحفظ لقياداته كراسيهم حتى لو تحولت هذه الكراسي إلى كراس كرتونية لا يحق لها إصدار أي قرار عسكري أو سيادي، ويبقى لها قرارات أسعار البندورة والفجل».

Friday, August 26, 2016

Russia and Turkey move closer on Syria policies

Ankara source tells MEE that Moscow has agreed top-level talks on Syria policy, despite remaining far apart on future of President Assad



By David Hearst

Link

Turkey and Russia remain far apart over the future of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad, but the two regional powers have agreed not to return to the hostilities which erupted after a Russian jet was shot down by Turkey earlier this year, and to conduct further top-level bilateral negotiations.
“The issue of Bashar is not solved,” a senior Turkish government source told Middle East Eye. He said there was still disagreement about whether Assad could play a role in a transitional government.
The source played down reports in the Turkish media that Prime Minister Binali Yildirim and his deputy Numan Kurtulmus had given a “green light” to Assad staying on.
Both sides agreed, from their different positions, that US policy in Syria was not working and have set up a joint working group in an attempt to hammer out a consensus.
This will be headed on the Turkish side by the head of Turkey's National Intelligence Organisation, Hakan Fidan.
As a result of the meeting between President Tayyip Erdogan’s and Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on 9 August, Russia’s “red lines” in northern Syria have disappeared.
The state news agency, Anadolu, meanwhile reported that Erdogan and Putin spoke via telephone on Friday and "agreed to accelerate efforts to ensure help reaches people in Aleppo".
The source countered an MEE report from Tehran that Iran was playing the role of go-between between Ankara and Damascus. However, the Turkish source acknowledged Iran’s quiescence on the incursion of Turkish tanks into northern Syria, and attributed it to the rise of armed attacks on infrastructure by Kurdish separatists in Iran.
“There is agreement between Iran and Turkey about the unity of Syria. Neither side is interested in dividing Syria," the source said. "For Iran, a unified Syria is more important, because for them Syria is an important platform for projecting their influence in the region. The notion of a unified Syria is a good starting point for us."
There are two groups of Kurdish fighters in Iran -the Peshmerga of the Kurdistan Democratic Party of Iran (KDPI), an exiled opposition group plotting a comeback in the Islamic Republic, and the PJAK, the Iranian offshoot of the PKK in Turkey.
In May this year, MEE talked to Peshmerga KDPI fighters in an old Iraqi army fortress in the town of Koya, which is serving as headquarters for the group.
MEE reported that the KDPI was spearheading the recruitment drive in Iran. 
“Lightly armed with Kalashnikovs, machine guns and sniper rifles, their aim is to avoid confrontation with the [Iranian] army during their trek over the mountains, and then to melt away into the villages and towns of Rojhelat, the Kurdish name for their traditional areas in northwest Iran."
The MEE report quoted Qadir Wrya, a member of the KDPI’s politburo: ”The KDPI has become more active in Iran over the past two years”.
Wyra said the party was building an underground network of cadres in Rojhelat.
The Turkish source said the Iranians were getting their own blowback from Syria, in Kurdish fighters returning from the northern front and achieving hero status among the Sunni Kurdish population of north-western Iran.
He said that the Kurdish push for a state along the Turkish border of northern Syria was re-igniting an even older battle for a Kurdish enclave in Iran.
The MEE article in May continued: “Between four and seven million Kurds live in Iran, most of them in the provinces of Kordestan, West Azerbaijan, Ilam and Khermanshah.
"The Shia theocracy in Tehran has never shed its mistrust of minorities, and Kurdish is not taught in school, while the predominantly Sunni Kurds find that the government discriminates against them on religious grounds too. Kurdish political parties remain outlawed and activists are routinely thrown in jail and tortured.
"As long as this absolute, multi-faceted denial policy is pursued by Tehran, the sense of alienation and discontent will be on the rise," said Himan Hosseini, a contributing analyst at the Washington Kurdish Institute.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

ما وراء الخبر- هل يمكن لتركيا إقامة المنطقة الآمنة؟

ANALYSIS: Iran coordinating between Turkey and Assad during incursion

Sources tell MEE closer ties between Ankara and Tehran helped pave the way for the Turkish incursion into Syria

Link

TEHRAN - As Turkey increases its tank force inside northern Syria, the Iranian government is preserving a conspicuous but significant silence. News of the incursion is being widely covered in Iranian media but there has been no reaction from officials.
Iran’s relations with Turkey have been warming up dramatically in recent weeks and analysts suggest there is some embarrassment in Tehran over how to handle the incursion publicly. 
The Iranian media have reported the Syrian government’s condemnation of the incursion as aggression but have not yet quoted any statements from their own government.
Iranian relations with Turkey are at a delicate stage. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Hossein Jaberi Ansari, was in Ankara on Tuesday a few hours before Turkey sent the first tanks into Syria and it is not known whether he was warned in advance. 
His visit followed a surprise stop-over in Tehran by Turkey’s foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, last week on his way to India. This, in turn, followed a meeting by Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, with Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara on 12 August.
The unprecedented flurry of visits since the abortive Turkish coup is not just confined to bilateral issues. Ansari’s visit was officially billed as centering on the future of Syria and Middle East Eye has learned that Iran has become the main conduit for contacts between Erdogan and Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad. A source close to the Iranian leadership told MEE: “The Turks and Syrians are co-ordinating through the Iranians”.
Turkey has insisted on Assad’s resignation for more than four years of the country’s civil war but it started to change its stance on Syria before the abortive coup on 15 July. Since the coup, these moves have accelerated with several statements from the Turkish Prime Minister, Binali Yildirim, saying that Assad could remain during a transition period. 
The future of Syria’s Kurds is clearly part of the emerging new equation. The attacks by the Syrian army and air force on the Syrian Kurdish people’s defence militias (YPG) in the town of Hasakah in recent days look like a signal from Assad to Erdogan that he understands Erdogan’s concerns about the growing strength of the Syrian Kurds along a long section of Turkey’s southern border. Until recently, the Syrian army ignored the YPG and even saw them as potential allies in the war against the Islamic State (IS) group.
Assad’s ultimate aim is to persuade Erdogan to stop allowing arms supplies to cross from Turkey to non-IS opposition groups fighting him in Idlib and Aleppo.   
Turkey won’t immediately halt its arm supplies to the rebels but gradually there’ll be a quid pro quo for Assad’s strikes on the YPG in Hasakah,” the leadership source, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, told MEE. 
He also revealed details of Iran’s quick reaction to the Turkish coup while it was still evolving. It has been widely reported that Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif tweeted solidarity with Erdogan and condemnation of the coup before it collapsed, a move which impressed the Turkish leader and differed markedly from the US and European reaction, which Turkey has said has been muted and only came after the outcome of the coup attempt was clear. 
According to the source, Zarif’s midnight tweets were prompted by the office of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 
“Zarif and Rouhani were cautious and initially hesitated how to react to news of the coup attempt. They had to be pressed by the supreme leader’s office more than once before the tweet went out,” he said.
Iran’s quick condemnation of the coup attempt was based on one of Iran’s basic foreign policy principles, according to Foad Izadi, a professor in Tehran University’s Faculty of World Studies. 
“Military coups are unacceptable,” he told MEE. “A second principle is that you don’t send forces across international borders without the agreement of a country’s government.”
However, Iran has stayed silent on Turkey’s incursion into northern Syria, with only its allies in Damascus issuing a statement denouncing the incursion into their sovereign territory.

Syrian regime and Islamic State 'carried out chemical attacks'

The cases investigated found that chlorine gas was used in barrel bombs dropped

Link

A United Nations probe into chemical attacks in Syria accuses the Assad government of using chlorine gas in two incidents and Islamic State militants of using mustard gas.
UN investigation has established that President Bashar al-Assad's forces carried out at least two chemical attacks in Syria and that Islamic State [IS] militants used mustard gas as a weapon.
The panel was able to identify the perpetrators of three chemical attacks carried out in 2014 and 2015, but was unable to draw conclusions in the other six cases that it has been investigating over the past year.
The report from the Joint Investigative Mechanism [JIM] found that the Syrian regime dropped chemical weapons on two villages in northwestern Idlib province – Talmenes on 21 April 2014 and Sarmin on 16 March 2015.
In both instances, Syrian air force helicopters dropped "a device" on houses that was followed by the "release of a toxic substance," which in the case of Sarmin matched "the characteristics of chlorine."
The panel found that the Islamic State "was the only entity with the ability, capability, motive and the means to use sulphur mustard" in an attack on the town of Marea in northern Aleppo province on 21 August 2015.
The Assad regime has repeatedly denied that it has used chemical weapons in Syria, but the report said that in all three cases, it had "sufficient information to reach a conclusion on the actors involved."
The JIM was set up by the Security Council a year ago to investigate the use of chemical weapons and for the first time to determine who is responsible for the attacks.
Most of the nine cases investigated pointed to the alleged use of chlorine gas in barrel bombs dropped from helicopters.
Britain, France and the United States had long maintained that only the regime has helicopters, but Russia, Damascus's ally, insisted that there was no concrete proof that Assad's forces carried out the attacks.
It is essential that the members of the Security Council come together to ensure consequences for those who have used chemical weapons in Syria
- US Ambassador Samantha Power
US calls for 'strong action'
US Ambassador Samantha Power called for "strong and swift action" by the Security Council to follow up on the findings of the report.
"It is essential that the members of the Security Council come together to ensure consequences for those who have used chemical weapons in Syria," she said in a statement.
In Washington, National Security Council spokesman Ned Price said "it is now impossible to deny that the Syrian regime has repeatedly used industrial chlorine as a weapon against its own people."

"The United States will work with our international partners to seek accountability through appropriate diplomatic mechanisms, including through the United Nations Security Council," he added.
The report "states clearly that the Syrian regime and Daesh have perpetrated chemical attacks in Syria," French Deputy Ambassador Alexis Lamek told reporters, using the Arabic acronym for the group.
"When it comes to proliferation, the use of chemical weapons, of such weapons of mass destruction, we cannot afford to be weak. The council will have to act."
The Security Council is due to discuss the report on Tuesday and could decide to impose sanctions on Syria or ask the International Criminal Court to take up the matter as a war crime.
But many diplomats say Russia would be unlikely to back such a move, despite the JIM's strong findings of chemical weapons use in the three cases.
The panel recommended further investigation of three other cases of suspected chemical weapons on the village of Zafr Zita, in Hama province, on April 28, 2014, and on two towns in Idlib – Qmenas on 16 March 2015 and Binnish on 24 March 2015.
The 24-member team said there was insufficient information to reach a conclusion in three other cases and recommended that there be no further investigation of those suspected attacks.
Syria agreed to get rid of its chemical stockpile and to refrain from making any use of toxic substances in warfare when it joined the Chemical Weapons Convention in 2013, under pressure from Russia.
The findings prompted immediate calls for the perpetrators to face justice.
"The UN Security Council should now ensure that those responsible for these attacks are brought to justice in a court of law," said Louis Charbonneau, Human Rights Watch's UN director.

Emad Hajjaj's Cartoon: Report Shows that Assad and ISIS Have Used Chemical Weapons

تحقيق دولي يتهم الاسد وداعش باستخدام الكيماوي

Wednesday, August 24, 2016

ما وراء الخبر- لماذا حركت تركيا قواتها نحو جرابلس؟

لماذا حركت تركيا قواتها نحو جرابلس؟

Turkey sends tanks into Syria in operation aimed at Isis and Kurds

Major campaign – coordinated with Syria rebels – aims to seize Isis-held town of Jarablus and contain expansion of Kurdish militias in area

The Guardian

Link

Turkey has launched a major military intervention in Syria, sending tanks and warplanes across the border in a coordinated campaign with Syrian opposition fighters, who seized an Islamic State-held village in the area in the first hours of fighting.
The operation, called Euphrates Shield, has a dual purpose: to dislodge Isis from Jarablus, its last major redoubt on the 500-mile border, and to contain the expansion of Kurdish militias in northern Syria.
Turkish tanks crossed the Syrian border as artillery and fighter jets pounded the militants in an operation backed by the US-led coalition. The incursion also opened corridors for Syrian opposition fighters backed by Turkey, who mounted an assault in the area.
Syrian rebels clashing with Isis fighters seized Kaklijah, Turkish military sources said. There were no immediate details about casualty figures.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a monitoring group, said violent clashes were taking place between Turkish-backed opposition fighters and Isis in the area surrounding Jarablus.
“We are determined to clear Daesh [Isis] from the border,” said the foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, at a press conference on Wednesday.
The operation marks the first time Ankara’s ground forces have ventured into Syria, with the exception of a brief operation early last year to rescue the tomb of an ancestor of the founder of the Ottoman empire.
Turkey said it had hit 81 targets in northern Syria with F-16 warplanes and had also shelled Isis positions.
“At 4am this morning, operations started in the north of Syria against terror groups which constantly threaten our country,” Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said in a speech in Ankara, adding that the operation would target both Isis and Kurdish militants.
The government in Ankara said the operation was an act of self-defence, in response to Isis shelling of Turkish border towns and suicide bombings and attacks targeting Turkish nationals. The bombing of a wedding in Gaziantep over the weekend killed more than 50 people, many of them children, and Isis-linked militants have carried out attacks in Ankara and Istanbul, including one at Atatürk airport.
It also billed it as an operation that would stem the flow of foreign fighters, who make up a significant contingent of Isis, to Syria, and the flight of refugees from the war-torn country.
Turkish tanks and members of the Free Syrian Army pass the Syrian border.
Pinterest
 Turkish tanks and members of the Free Syrian Army pass the Syrian border. Photograph: Sedat Suna/EPA
“The operation comes in response to terrorist attacks on Turkish soil and artillery fire by Daesh militants in Syria on targets inside Turkey,” the state-run Anadolu news agency said. “The operation is in line with the country’s rights to self-defence borne out of international treaties and a mandate given to the armed forces by the Turkish parliament.”
The interior minister, Efkan Ala, said the response was Turkey’s “most legitimate right” and that his country could not be a “mere spectator” amid the intensifying threat by Isis.
The airstrikes were the first by Turkey, a Nato member, in Syria since November, when its fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane that had strayed into Turkish airspace, leading to a collapse of relations with Moscow that lasted until a rapprochement in July. Last week, the Turkish prime minister, Binali Yıldırım, said his country would take a more “active” role in the war in Syria, which has driven more than 2 million refugees into Turkey.
The US vice-president, Joe Biden, was due to arrive in Ankara on Wednesday morning, hours after the launch of the operation. Relations between the two allies have been strained since an attempted coup last month that aimed to overthrow Erdoğan, who accuses a US-based cleric, Fethullah Gülen, of masterminding the plot and is seek ing his extradition.
Relations have also deteriorated over American backing of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which has expanded its sphere of influence in northern Syria as it conquered vast tracks of land from Isis with the backing of American air power. Ankara considers the YPG as the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Workers party (PKK), which is fighting an insurgency against the government and is a designated terrorist group, and considers Kurdish expansionism on its border a threat to national security.
Turkish tanks patrol near the Turkish-Syria border.
Pinterest
 Turkish tanks patrol near the Turkish-Syria border. Photograph: Sedat Suna/EPA
If rebel forces backed by Turkey take control of Jarablus, they would limit the westward expansion of the Kurdish autonomous zone, which Ankara also says poses a threat to Syria’s territorial integrity.
Turkey’s latest campaign is a development that underscores both the complexity and the stakes involved in Syria’s war, which has drawn in the region’s powers, laid much of the country to waste and forced a reshifting of longstanding alliances. While defeating Isis has long been the paramount American obsession in Syria, Turkey sees the departure of its president, Bashar al-Assad, as a necessary condition for peace talks, and rejects the idea of a Kurdish statelet on its borders.

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

إسقاط التقية فوق همذان

مروان قبلان
مروان قبلان
Link

مثلت العصبية، التي ردّت بها طهران على فضح موسكو اتفاقية السماح لها باستخدام قاعدة همذان الجوية (غرب إيران)، لمساندة العمليات العسكرية الروسية في سورية، مناسبةً جديدةً للدلالة على مستوى التوتر المكتوم في علاقة الحليفين المفترضين، إذ وصف وزير الدفاع الإيراني، حسين دهقان، السلوك الروسي بأنه "غير مسؤول"، وفيه "خيانة للثقة"، وهي لغة غير مسبوق تداولها في التعامل الدبلوماسي بين البلدين. كما سدّدت "الفضيحة" ضربةً جديدة "لتيار موسكو" في طهران، والذي يواجه، منذ فترة، صعوبة في تفسير السلوك الروسي في الحرب السورية، خصوصاً في ضوء إحجام روسيا، أحياناً، عن تقديم الدعم الجوي "المناسب" لقوات إيران ومليشياتها، ما يتركها مكشوفة بالكامل أمام قوات المعارضة السورية، كما حصل، أخيراً، في خان طومان ومعارك فك حصار حلب. فوق ذلك، تحاول إيران ابتلاع حقيقة ارتباط الروس بتفاهمات مع الإسرائيليين، يشهد على عمقها زيارة بنيامين نتنياهو موسكو أربع مرات في الأشهر التسعة الأخيرة، للتنسيق ميدانياً في سورية، وانخراط الروس في مباحثات جدية مع الأميركيين لترتيبات أمنية في سورية، بعيداً عن أعين حلفائهم المتوجسين في طهران. 
وكانت إطاحة مسؤول الملف السوري في وزارة الخارجية الإيرانية، حسين أمير عبد اللهيان، في يونيو/ حزيران الماضي، قد كشفت حال الضعف الذي أخذ يعتري "تيار موسكو" الذي يقوده مستشار المرشد للشؤون الخارجية، علي أكبر ولايتي، وقائد فيلق القدس في الحرس الثوري، قاسم سليماني. ويعد الثلاثي، ولايتي وسليماني وعبد اللهيان، القوة الدافعة وراء دعوة روسيا إلى التدخل في سورية، لإنقاذ إيران من هزيمة محققة صيف العام 2015. ومنذ يونيو/ حزيران الماضي، غدا الملف السوري في عهدة وزير الخارجية، جواد ظريف، وسكرتير مجلس الأمن القومي، الجنرال علي شمخاني، فيما بدا وكأنه إقرار بمسؤولية "الثلاثي" عن خسارة سورية روسيا. وبمجرد تسلمه الملف السوري، بدأ ظريف رحلة التقارب مع تركيا، في محاولة لاستباق نتائج أي اتفاق روسي-أميركي، لا يلحظ مصالح إيران في سورية، خصوصاً في ضوء الدعم الروسي-الأميركي المشترك للأكراد، وتصاعد الحديث في موسكو وواشنطن عن مشاريع تقسيم وفدرلة. 
مع ذلك، لا تشذّ الطريقة التي كشفت بها موسكو سر قاعدة همذان في الواقع عن ديدن السلوك الروسي في التعامل مع إيران، وأزماتها المتعدّدة، باعتبارها ورقة ضغط ومساومة في علاقتها المعقدة مع الغرب، خصوصاً واشنطن. لذلك، لا يعد السلوك الروسي هنا جديداً على طهران، ولا يمثل من ثم سبباً كافياً لفهم الغضبة الإيرانية من كشف سر همذان. فعلى الرغم من محاولتها التقارب مع إيران، على امتداد العقد الماضي، مثلاً، لم تكتف روسيا بالسماح بفرض عقوبات قاسية في مجلس الأمن على طهران، بل صوّتت لصالح جميع القرارات التي صدرت عن المجلس، لمنع إيران من امتلاك التكنولوجيا النووية العسكرية، وهي القرارات 1737 (2006) و1747 (2007) و1803 (2008) و1929 (2010). كما امتنعت موسكو، حتى هذا العام، مجاراةً للغرب، عن تنفيذ عقد تم توقيعه قبل ثماني سنوات لتزويد طهران بنظام صواريخ "إس-300"، على الرغم من تسديد قيمته 800 مليون دولار، وقد تقدّمت إيران، بسبب ذلك، بدعوى إلى محكمة التحكيم في باريس، طالبت فيها بتسديد موسكو أربعة مليارات دولار، لعدم التزامها بتنفيذ العقد. وداومت روسيا على رفض صيانة الغوّاصات الإيرانية، التي كانت ستمنح إيران، في حال إعادة تأهيلها، حركة مناورة عسكرية واسعة في الخليج العربي والمحيط الهندي. ولا ننسى، أيضاً، كيف ماطلت موسكو عشر سنوات، لإنهاء بناء مفاعل بوشهر النووي وتجهيزه وتشغيله، بعد أن ظلت تستخدمه أداة للمساومة مع الغرب. 
لا تخرج قضية قاعدة همذان عن هذا السياق في التعامل الروسي مع إيران. مع ذلك، أحدثت ما يشبه الصدمة في طهران، لا لشيء إلا لأنها مثلت قمة الإدانة "للشيزوفرانيا" الإيرانية، المتمثلة بازدواجية الخطاب والسلوك، الناشئة عن علاقة بنيوية مرتبكة ومعقدة بين إيران الخمينية والعالم. هنا، يمكن أن يسير كل شيء بصورة جيدة، طالما ظل سرياً، من "إيران غيت" وصفقة الأسلحة مع إسرائيل، إلى "همدان غيت" وخرق نص الدستور. هنا، لم يدرك الروس ربما أنهم ضربوا على أكثر الأوتار حساسيةً في السيكولوجيا الإيرانية، إذ أسقطوا التقية في همذان، فغضبت إيران.

الاتجاه المعاكس-هل يتحول السنة إلى أقلية في المنطقة؟

Special Report: Massacre reports show U.S. inability to curb Iraq militias

by Ned Parker and Jonathan Landay | WASHINGTON link 
Shi’ite militias in Iraq detained, tortured and abused far more Sunni civilians during the American-backed capture of the town of Falluja in June than U.S. officials have publicly acknowledged, Reuters has found.
More than 700 Sunni men and boys are still missing more than two months after the Islamic State stronghold fell. The abuses occurred despite U.S. efforts to restrict the militias' role in the operation, including threatening to withdraw American air support, according to U.S. and Iraqi officials.
The U.S. efforts had little effect. Shi’ite militias did not pull back from Falluja, participated in looting there and now vow to defy any American effort to limit their role in coming operations against Islamic State.
All told, militia fighters killed at least 66 Sunni males and abused at least 1,500 others fleeing the Falluja area, according to interviews with more than 20 survivors, tribal leaders, Iraqi politicians and Western diplomats.
They said men were shot, beaten with rubber hoses and in several cases beheaded. Their accounts were supported by a Reuters review of an investigation by local Iraqi authorities and video testimony and photographs of survivors taken immediately after their release.
The battle against Islamic State is the latest chapter in the conflict between Iraq's Shi’ite majority and Sunni minority, which was unleashed by the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. The war ended decades of Sunni rule under Saddam Hussein and brought to power a series of governments dominated by Shi’ite Islamist parties patronized by Iran.
Washington’s inability to restrain the sectarian violence is now a central concern for Obama administration officials as they move ahead with plans to help Iraqi forces retake the much larger city of Mosul, Islamic State’s Iraqi capital. Preliminary operations to clear areas outside the strategic city have been under way for months. Sunni leaders in Iraq and Western diplomats fear the Shi’ite militias might commit worse excesses in Mosul, the country’s second-largest city. Islamic State, the Sunni extremist group, seized the majority-Sunni city in June 2014.
"CENTRAL TOPIC"
U.S. officials say they fear a repeat of the militia abuses in Mosul could erase any chances of reconciling Iraq’s Sunni and Shia communities. "Virtually every conversation that we have had internally with respect to planning for Mosul - and virtually every conversation that we’ve had with the Iraqis - has this as a central topic," said a senior Obama Administration official.
In public, as reports of the abuses in Falluja emerged from survivors, Iraqi officials and human rights groups, U.S. officials in Washington initially played down the scope of the problem and did not disclose the failed American effort to rein in the militias.
Brett McGurk, the special U.S. envoy for the American-led campaign against Islamic State, expressed concern to reporters at a June 10th White House briefing for reporters about what he called “reports of isolated atrocities” against fleeing Sunnis.
Three days before the briefing, Gov. Sohaib al-Rawi of Anbar Province informed the U.S. ambassador that hundreds of people detained by Shi’ite militias had gone missing around Falluja, the governor told Reuters. By the time of the White House briefing, Iraqi officials, human rights investigators and the United Nations had collected evidence of scores of executions, the torture of hundreds of men and teenagers, and the disappearance of more than 700 others.
Nearly three weeks later, on June 28, McGurk struck a measured tone during testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He said reports of abuses had been received in the early days of the operation, “many of which have turned out not to be credible but some of which appear to be credible.”
McGurk declined a request for an interview. Mark Toner, the State Department’s deputy spokesperson, said American officials had expressed “concern both publicly and privately” about reported atrocities. “We find any abuse totally unacceptable,” Toner said, and “any violation of human rights should be investigated with those responsible held accountable.”
Militia leaders deny that their groups mistreated civilians. They say the missing men were Islamic State militants killed in battle.
EXACTING REVENGE
Iraqi government officials also challenged the reports of widespread violence against civilians. In an interview, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi’s deputy national security adviser, Safa al-Sheikh, said there were a few incidents, but added: “There are a lot of exaggerations, and some of the reports didn’t have any basis.”
Iraq’s main Shi’ite militias, trained and armed by Tehran, emerged during the 2003-2011 U.S. occupation and have grown in power and stature. After helping the government defend Baghdad when Islamic State seized Mosul in 2014, the militias became arms of the Iraqi government. Islamic State has slaughtered thousands of Iraqis, of all faiths.
There now are more than 30 Shi’ite militias whose members receive government salaries. The major groups have government posts and parliament seats.
Their might has also been enhanced by some of the more than $20 billion in military hardware the United States has sold or given to Iraq since 2005. Their weaponry includes armored personnel carriers, trucks, Humvees, artillery and even tanks, according to U.S. officials, independent experts and pictures and videos militia members have posted on the internet.
Collectively, the Shi’ite militias are known as the Hashid Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The militias officially answer to Abadi. In reality, the main groups answer only to themselves, display their own flags and emblems, and are advised by the Quds Force - Iran’s elite foreign paramilitary and intelligence service.
The Falluja offensive began on May 22. For more than a year, American officials had warned Iraqi officials repeatedly that the United States would suspend air support in areas where militias were operating outside the Iraqi military’s formal chain of command. The policy was designed to prevent American planes from inadvertently bombing Iraqi forces and to restrain militias from entering areas considered sensitive to Sunnis, according to U.S. officials.
In the first two days of the Falluja offensive, reports emerged of militiamen separating males from fleeing families. American, Western and U.N. diplomats pressured Abadi, other top Iraqi officials and militia leaders to stop the abuses.
Abadi and other political leaders publicly called for protection of civilians.
"DON'T BE TREACHEROUS"
The Americans' influence was hindered by the fact they had no forces in Falluja and couldn’t observe specific abuses, according to the Western diplomat who tracked the campaign.
On May 26, Ayatollah Ali Sistani, Iraq's leading Shi’ite cleric, pleaded with combatants to protect civilians. Aid agencies estimated at the time that as many as 100,000 people remained inside Falluja.
Don't be extreme ... don't be treacherous. Don't kill an old man, nor a boy, nor a woman. Don't cut a tree unless you have to,” Sistani said, citing sayings of the Prophet Mohammed.
Sistani’s pleas and the American threats fell on deaf ears.
The first known instance of systematic abuse by the militias in the Falluja offensive occurred May 27 northeast of the city, in the farming region of Sejar. Militiamen and security forces stopped a group of fleeing Sunnis, pulled aside somewhere between 73 and 95 males aged 15 and older and took them away, according to Gov. al-Rawi of Anbar Province and a Western diplomat who monitored the offensive. Women and children were freed.

“We are still in contact with women and children who were handed to government people,” said the Western diplomat. “They still don’t know where the men are.”

Al-Jazeera Cartoon

كاريكاتير: الأسد وداعش

A Funny Cartoon......

A Representation of an Arabic Saying, Implying Two Who are Very Close Together.....

Two Asses in One Underwear!