The anti-Siniora craze in Beirut

By Sami Moubayed
Asia Times

".....The US fears that if a post-Siniora cabinet that is controlled by Hezbollah comes to power, it can legally ask the UN troops stationed on the Lebanese-Israeli border to leave. This would plunge UN Resolution 1701 down the drain and might lead to another war between Hezbollah and Israel. The biggest problem poised by the UN resolution is that it keeps Hezbollah away from the battlefield, which is now controlled by the UN, and it makes reference to Resolution 1559, which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah. But even if the demonstrations succeed in bringing Siniora down, constitutionally his replacement has to be from the March 14 Coalition, because it commands the majority in parliament.

The only alternative would be if the demonstrations not only call for Siniora to step down but also call for early elections to bring down March 14 as well. After all, the entire coalition was voted into power in an emotional outburst after the assassination of Rafik al-Hariri last year. If elections were repeated, it would not come out with a majority anymore.

The coalition members have been tried in government before and, to many, they have failed. Aoun, who also was elected in an emotional outburst after returning from his long exile, is still new and untested in government. He will try to offer the Lebanese all of what March 14 failed to deliver, including security, stability and broad representation of political groups. It is too early to discuss elections, however, because for now the objective is only ousting Siniora.

Many feel that the demonstrations will succeed and Siniora will step down. But the constitutional requirements will bring a new prime minister to Lebanon who is also from the March 14 Coalition. He will share more power with Aoun and Hezbollah, but based on its strong support from Saudi Arabia, France and the United States, it will revert to many of the same policies that characterized the Siniora cabinet.

Paris and Washington, after all, do not like to be defeated. Bringing Siniora down would be a humiliation to the two countries that endorsed him. They might tolerate it for now to appease the angry Lebanese street, but they would see that this "coup" does not last long. "