Suitcases of money, and strategic depth

By Danny Rubinstein

"Recent days have been the best the Hamas government has known since the movement's victory in the Palestinian elections less than a year ago. The general strike of Palestinian Authority (PA) employees over unpaid salaries is crumbling. There are still demonstrations here and there of policemen and others, who complain that Hamas distributes money (which comes in suitcases of cash from Iran) primarily to its own supporters. Not everybody agrees with the complaints, however. The fact is that the education and health systems are gradually returning to normal. Qatar, for instance, recently announced that it would pay the salaries of Palestinian teachers for the coming year.

The cease-fire with Israel, which was a Hamas initiative, is holding. That is certainly an achievement for the Hamas government; and it is interesting to find people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip who maintain that while Israel is still a long way from recognizing the Hamas government, it has in essence become its partner in preserving the cease-fire.

At the diplomatic level, there is no question that Hamas is satisfied with itself, and with good reason. Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Meshal and PA Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh were honored guests in Egypt. Haniyeh, on his first official trip abroad as prime minister, continued to Qatar, Syria and Iran. He will return wearing a cloak of legitimacy and recognition, and of course with more suitcases bursting with cash. One can add the hints of possible change in the attitude of Europe and the United States toward Iran and Syria, which promises Hamas additional political support.

And if that were not enough, there may soon be a deal in which Israel would release over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for its abducted soldier, Gilad Shalit - a deal that will be chalked up to Hamas' credit, and will give Meshal and Haniyeh's movement even greater prestige and power.

Hamas' sense of success was clear in the style of Haniyeh's speech in Tehran. There was a feeling of strength when he spoke about Iran providing the Palestinians with strategic depth and stressed Hamas' uncompromising position of never recognizing Israel. Haniyeh has not spoken so harshly for many months.

But, more than anything, observers in the West Bank and Gaza Strip noted last week the crude pronouncements of the Hamas minister of refugee affairs, Dr. Atef Adwan, against PA chairman Abu Mazen and his people. After Abu Mazen convened the PLO steering committee to adopt several decisions aimed at Hamas, Adwan said: "Who are the members of the steering committee anyway? It is a group of old men who represent only themselves. They are mainly concerned with serving American political interests in the region, even at the expense of the Palestinian people ...

"I'm suspicious of the purpose of Abu Mazen's sudden visit to Gaza this week, and I'm amazed that he talks about a deadlock in the talks with Hamas about a unity government. Abu Mazen never spoke about a deadlock in negotiations with Israel. You will all be surprised if Abu Mazen reveals the truth about the talks with Hamas. After all, he has become an American tool in order to put pressure on Hamas, and the representative of a group within Fatah that only cares about its own personal interests."

It may be assumed that a minister in the Hamas government would not allow himself to talk that way unless he felt that a large part of the Palestinian public agrees with his views. Abu Mazen's office reacted strongly, and the Hamas government was forced to issue a formal apology.

There is no doubt that, compared with the heads of Hamas, Abu Mazen is a weak and abused leader, among other reasons because he has become irrelevant this last year. His entire political existence depends on diplomatic negotiations with Israel - and when no such negotiations take place, no one needs him. For two years, Abu Mazen tried to reactivate the political process. There were times when he literally pleaded for a meeting with Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert. Nothing happened. And if Israel snubs him, there is no reason for his own compatriots to accord him respect."