Syria is stable, according to its president. But his regime isn't immune from forces at work across the Arab world
David Hirst
guardian.co.uk, Monday 21 March 2011
"Is Syria's turn now coming? Of all the Arab regimes, none more resembles those of former presidents Mubarak and Ben Ali than President Assad and his ruling Ba'athists; and, after their fall, his 51-year-old "republican monarchy" looked the next most logically in line of candidates to succumb to the Arab democratic revolution.
Yet Assad himself begged to differ.....
Given such things as the weakness and divergences of the traditional Syrian opposition, and sectarian and ethnic divisions in society at large, there are serious doubts whether these scattered outbreaks will coalesce into a single, cohesive, full-scale uprising.
Yet with the Dera'a disturbances now into their fourth consecutive day, this disparate opposition is clearly developing a serious momentum on the streets. There is a growing feeling that it could escalate into something much bigger and more decisive.....
....His regime was chiefly stable, he said, because it was the true embodiment of the Arabs and Syrians' 'ideology, belief and cause' – essentially the struggle against Israel and western powers standing behind it. It thereby boasted a "patriotic legitimacy' which all other regimes, subservient to the US, lacked.
But this argument advanced by a despot in favour of his own survival is turning out to be almost as delusional as those advanced by others – such as the al-Qaida of Colonel Gaddafi's bizarre imagining – for all their woes. The patriotic card clearly counts for little in the eyes of a Syrian public who consider that, in anything other than rhetoric, their rulers have done little more to earn it than their rivals in the "moderate" camp. It is just a diversion from the real issues at stake.....
....Indeed, Bashar has frankly asserted that he didn't envisage such fundamental reforms before 'the next generation.'
That doesn't augur well for dialogue, reconciliation, or a smooth transition of power. So if uprising there is to be it will be more like Libya and Bahrain's. Never would the army and police leaderships abandon the political one as they did in Egypt and Tunisia. For them all, so incestuously linked, overthrow is simply not an option. For the regime they most resemble – and whose fate most surely haunts them — is the late Saddam Hussein's and their brother-Baathists in Baghdad."
David Hirst
guardian.co.uk, Monday 21 March 2011
"Is Syria's turn now coming? Of all the Arab regimes, none more resembles those of former presidents Mubarak and Ben Ali than President Assad and his ruling Ba'athists; and, after their fall, his 51-year-old "republican monarchy" looked the next most logically in line of candidates to succumb to the Arab democratic revolution.
Yet Assad himself begged to differ.....
Given such things as the weakness and divergences of the traditional Syrian opposition, and sectarian and ethnic divisions in society at large, there are serious doubts whether these scattered outbreaks will coalesce into a single, cohesive, full-scale uprising.
Yet with the Dera'a disturbances now into their fourth consecutive day, this disparate opposition is clearly developing a serious momentum on the streets. There is a growing feeling that it could escalate into something much bigger and more decisive.....
....His regime was chiefly stable, he said, because it was the true embodiment of the Arabs and Syrians' 'ideology, belief and cause' – essentially the struggle against Israel and western powers standing behind it. It thereby boasted a "patriotic legitimacy' which all other regimes, subservient to the US, lacked.
But this argument advanced by a despot in favour of his own survival is turning out to be almost as delusional as those advanced by others – such as the al-Qaida of Colonel Gaddafi's bizarre imagining – for all their woes. The patriotic card clearly counts for little in the eyes of a Syrian public who consider that, in anything other than rhetoric, their rulers have done little more to earn it than their rivals in the "moderate" camp. It is just a diversion from the real issues at stake.....
....Indeed, Bashar has frankly asserted that he didn't envisage such fundamental reforms before 'the next generation.'
That doesn't augur well for dialogue, reconciliation, or a smooth transition of power. So if uprising there is to be it will be more like Libya and Bahrain's. Never would the army and police leaderships abandon the political one as they did in Egypt and Tunisia. For them all, so incestuously linked, overthrow is simply not an option. For the regime they most resemble – and whose fate most surely haunts them — is the late Saddam Hussein's and their brother-Baathists in Baghdad."
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