Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Syria: delaying the inevitable



Bashar al-Assad is the master of delay, delusion, and self-deception, as the isolation of his regime increases

Editorial
guardian.co.uk, Monday 31 October 2011

"Eight months on, the uprising in Syria has changed. There is now a Free Syrian Army in Turkey claiming it has battalions across Syria. One such is the Khalid bin Walid battalion in Homs, a unit of several hundred army officers and soldiers who defected and now shoot back when demonstrations are fired on, ambush troop convoys, and kill regime informers....

There are few signs, however, that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has changed. Like his fellow dictators in their final days, he is a man in denial. As 40 died at the hands of his security forces in the last few days, and Homs came under sustained assault, Assad talked in his interview with the Sunday Telegraph of a turning tide of support for the government, where the army were only targeting terrorists. In the past, an Assad speech promising reform or an interview saying he was ready to talk to the opposition was a sure prelude to yet another violent crackdown. This interview could turn out to be no different. He is the master of delay, delusion, and self-deception, as the isolation of his regime increases. Former allies peel away – first Turkey, then Saudi Arabia, and now the Arab League. But Assad was right on one point – if his regime fell the whole region would change. Unlike Egypt or Tunisia, Assad's Baáthist regime stands at the crossroads of a complex network of alliances....

There may be no alternative to civil war, but if there is, it will not be through intervention. It can only be achieved when Assad sees that he is finished, and that his only hope of survival is to agree to a transitional government and free elections."

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