Despite the superficial calm in Damascus, everyone knows change is coming. The only question is, how much will it cost?
A LONG ARTICLE
A LONG ARTICLE
Ian Black in Damascus
guardian.co.uk, Monday 16 January 2012
".... Most of their friends are on the run from the mukhabarat secret police. "It used to be scary but we've got used to it," said Adnan. "The revolution destroyed the wall of fear. At school, we were taught to love the president – Hafez – first. And it didn't get any better when Bashar took over. Now, everything has changed. Assad's picture is defaced everywhere and we are certain that at some point we will topple the regime."
On the face of it, Damascus is calm. The bloodiest frontlines of the revolution may be in Homs, Hama, Idlib and Deraa, but the appearance of normality in the capital is deceptive. Intrigue, fear and anger are just below the surface.
"Damascus is crucial to the survival of the Assad regime," a leading opposition figure told the Guardian. "They will never allow a Tahrir Square here. If Damascus falls, it's all over."....
The demonstrators are ingenious: in one case, volunteer drivers created traffic jams all around the old Hijaz railway station to create a space in which a brief but eyecatching protest could be held.
Creativity and secrecy are crucial. On the first day of Ramadan, loudspeakers concealed in the busy shopping area of Arnous Square blared out the stirring song "Irhal ya Bashar" ("Leave, Bashar"), written by Ibrahim Qashoush, who was murdered in July after performing in Hama. His killers cut his throat and carved out his vocal chords.....
Still, some cannot quite believe what they are daring to do. "Look at us," laughed Bassam, a manufacturer in his 20s. "Using false names and driving around to avoid police checkpoints. The first time I went to a demonstration, it was frightening. Now it's exhilarating."
Yet no one thinks the revolution will have a happy end any time soon. Last week's speech by Assad was seen as a declaration of war......
Assad supporters also accuse the opposition of naivety and of forgetting the early 1980s, when a wave of assassinations and bombings by the Muslim Brotherhood culminated in the Hama uprising, in which government forces killed at least 20,000 people. But that was 30 years ago: such a draconian "security solution" would be hard to repeat in the age of YouTube – and unlikely to end the uprising.
Sectarianism is also rearing its ugly head, with the opposition blaming the regime for fomenting tensions between Alawites, who dominate the security forces, and the Sunni majority......
Another sign of Syria's deepening crisis is that the state is no longer functioning properly. It is "collapsing in slow motion", in the words of one expert. Security chiefs are concerned about bribes being demanded to release detainees. Half the weapons acquired by rebels are estimated to have been sold by army personnel while customs agents look the other way as shipments come in from Lebanon. Rumours persist of different branches of the secret police shooting at each other on clandestine operations....
This joke illustrates the impact: Abu Fulan – everyman – buys a chicken for dinner. He asks his wife to roast it but she says, 'Sorry, there's no gas'. Maaleish (never mind), he replies: let's pluck it and put it in the microwave. 'Sorry,' his wife answers, 'there's no electricity either.' At this point, the chicken miraculously comes to life and squawks: Allah, Souriya, Bashar, wa bas! ("and that's all you need!").
On 11 January, the killing of the French TV correspondent Gilles Jacquier by mortar fire during a government-escorted trip to Homs left more troubling questions unanswered. Was it a warning message to the international media? What is extraordinary about all these incidents is the assumption of so many Syrians that the regime would act with such murderous duplicity.....
Many now have first-hand experience of the apparatus of state repression, and describe details of underground cells, beatings and torture. It is common knowledge that Iranian security advisers are on hand with their sinister expertise in communications monitoring and riot policing. Damascus feels, and looks, like Tehran in 2009 during protests over the rigging of the presidential election.....
The economist Abdel-Karim takes the long view. "I have no doubt the regime will be toppled. The problem is that the longer it takes, the more powerful the Islamists will become. Those who advocate violence will gain ground. It's a question of time and cost: time is getting shorter but the price is getting higher."
Mouna Ghanem, of the Syrian State-Building Movement, one of very few independent nongovernmental organisations, agrees fully with this gloomy analysis. "We are happy that there is change," she says. "We thought change would never come to Syria. But we fear what is it going to cost.""
guardian.co.uk, Monday 16 January 2012
".... Most of their friends are on the run from the mukhabarat secret police. "It used to be scary but we've got used to it," said Adnan. "The revolution destroyed the wall of fear. At school, we were taught to love the president – Hafez – first. And it didn't get any better when Bashar took over. Now, everything has changed. Assad's picture is defaced everywhere and we are certain that at some point we will topple the regime."
On the face of it, Damascus is calm. The bloodiest frontlines of the revolution may be in Homs, Hama, Idlib and Deraa, but the appearance of normality in the capital is deceptive. Intrigue, fear and anger are just below the surface.
"Damascus is crucial to the survival of the Assad regime," a leading opposition figure told the Guardian. "They will never allow a Tahrir Square here. If Damascus falls, it's all over."....
The demonstrators are ingenious: in one case, volunteer drivers created traffic jams all around the old Hijaz railway station to create a space in which a brief but eyecatching protest could be held.
Creativity and secrecy are crucial. On the first day of Ramadan, loudspeakers concealed in the busy shopping area of Arnous Square blared out the stirring song "Irhal ya Bashar" ("Leave, Bashar"), written by Ibrahim Qashoush, who was murdered in July after performing in Hama. His killers cut his throat and carved out his vocal chords.....
Still, some cannot quite believe what they are daring to do. "Look at us," laughed Bassam, a manufacturer in his 20s. "Using false names and driving around to avoid police checkpoints. The first time I went to a demonstration, it was frightening. Now it's exhilarating."
Yet no one thinks the revolution will have a happy end any time soon. Last week's speech by Assad was seen as a declaration of war......
Assad supporters also accuse the opposition of naivety and of forgetting the early 1980s, when a wave of assassinations and bombings by the Muslim Brotherhood culminated in the Hama uprising, in which government forces killed at least 20,000 people. But that was 30 years ago: such a draconian "security solution" would be hard to repeat in the age of YouTube – and unlikely to end the uprising.
Sectarianism is also rearing its ugly head, with the opposition blaming the regime for fomenting tensions between Alawites, who dominate the security forces, and the Sunni majority......
Another sign of Syria's deepening crisis is that the state is no longer functioning properly. It is "collapsing in slow motion", in the words of one expert. Security chiefs are concerned about bribes being demanded to release detainees. Half the weapons acquired by rebels are estimated to have been sold by army personnel while customs agents look the other way as shipments come in from Lebanon. Rumours persist of different branches of the secret police shooting at each other on clandestine operations....
This joke illustrates the impact: Abu Fulan – everyman – buys a chicken for dinner. He asks his wife to roast it but she says, 'Sorry, there's no gas'. Maaleish (never mind), he replies: let's pluck it and put it in the microwave. 'Sorry,' his wife answers, 'there's no electricity either.' At this point, the chicken miraculously comes to life and squawks: Allah, Souriya, Bashar, wa bas! ("and that's all you need!").
On 11 January, the killing of the French TV correspondent Gilles Jacquier by mortar fire during a government-escorted trip to Homs left more troubling questions unanswered. Was it a warning message to the international media? What is extraordinary about all these incidents is the assumption of so many Syrians that the regime would act with such murderous duplicity.....
Many now have first-hand experience of the apparatus of state repression, and describe details of underground cells, beatings and torture. It is common knowledge that Iranian security advisers are on hand with their sinister expertise in communications monitoring and riot policing. Damascus feels, and looks, like Tehran in 2009 during protests over the rigging of the presidential election.....
The economist Abdel-Karim takes the long view. "I have no doubt the regime will be toppled. The problem is that the longer it takes, the more powerful the Islamists will become. Those who advocate violence will gain ground. It's a question of time and cost: time is getting shorter but the price is getting higher."
Mouna Ghanem, of the Syrian State-Building Movement, one of very few independent nongovernmental organisations, agrees fully with this gloomy analysis. "We are happy that there is change," she says. "We thought change would never come to Syria. But we fear what is it going to cost.""
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