Egypt’s foreign relations

Don’t exclude the Muslim Brotherhood

by Alain Gresh
Le Monde Diplomatique

"“To avert a bloodbath and civil war, the military will govern Egypt for a short period of not more than a year,” said an editorial in Saudi Arabia’s Okaz newspaper on 30 June: a few days later, after the demonstrations, Morsi was removed by the army. Okaz’s foresight was unsurprising since there had been liaison between Egypt’s high command and Riyadh for months.

The army had a guarantee from Saudi Arabia that it would come to Egypt’s aid provided the army removed from power the Muslim Brothers, who are hated by the Saudi royal family, and treated ex-president Hosni Mubarak better. (Saudi Arabia, which took in Tunisia’s former president, Zine al- Abidine Ben Ali, was unhappy with Mubarak’s treatment.) King Abdullah was among the first to congratulate the new leadership in Cairo and offer $5bn in aid: $1bn in cash, $2bn in oil and $2bn in bank deposits.

Morsi’s departure is a clear victory for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, and a setback for Qatar. After a smooth transition of power in Qatar with the accession of the emir’s son, there might be a less interventionist policy. However, there will still be rivalry between Qatar and Saudi Arabia, even if both depend on their strategic alliance with the US......

After Morsi’s fall, the military flooded the press with “secrets” about his alleged refusal to re-establish order in Sinai, an unstable region important to the military command. Since then, operations there have been stepped up and the army has reverted to the strategy of the Mubarak period, when all-out repression — and contempt for Sinai inhabitants, often considered second-class citizens — played into the hands of jihadi groups. In Gaza, drastic restrictions have returned at the Rafah terminal and there has been a political campaign equating Palestinians with terrorists....."