By Rami G. Khouri
| The Daily Star |
 |  |
The millions of Egyptians who supported General Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi when he removed from office President Mohammad Morsi eleven months ago gave the impression that Sisi had overwhelming popular support for his actions and his candidacy.
It remains unclear whether these sentiments among Egyptians were a genuine and lasting political statement or merely a short-lived form of mass hysteria that understandably sought the comforts of a secure and orderly life under a strongman.
The presidential election in a few days probably will not clarify this issue, because of the boycott by the Muslim Brotherhood and the authorities’ continued suppression measures against leftist, independent and progressive activists in Egypt.
We will get a more accurate picture of public political sentiments in Egypt only after President Sisi bears the weight and test of incumbency. The Egyptian public in the year ahead will judge how he behaves and what he delivers in response to the urgent need to provide real services and jobs – rather than emotional fantasies and cave-dwelling, feel-good hope – to tens of millions of needy Egyptians. This force of the public will – the consent of the governed – will ultimately define the nature of Egyptian public politics and governance, and who leads the government.
We must not be dazzled or disoriented by the state-sanctioned public political behavior that we can see, while opposition forces are banned or intimidated. Fortunately, we have a more accurate picture of political sentiments among Egyptians from polls conducted by respected local and foreign pollsters. Two in particular – by the Bassera organization in Egypt last year and the Pew Research Center last month – provide important insights into the two enduring realities that should shield us from being blinded by the craze of the moment: that significant pluralism in ideological sentiments defines Egyptian society, and that the public’s support for any single person or party will change significantly over time.
The Pew poll revealed some fascinating realities, including that last July’s military takeover is now supported by a slender majority of 54 percent, while 43 percent oppose it. Sisi enjoys marginal majority approval rather than overwhelming popularity, receiving a favorable rating from 54 percent of Egyptians, while 45 percent view him unfavorably.
Morsi is rated favorably by 42 percent of those polled, a drop from 53 percent in last year’s survey. About four-in-10 Egyptians continue to have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been banned by the current government and named a terrorist group.
These swings in public sentiment are a normal reflection of human nature. They are also a welcome novelty in the Arab region, where state-hijacked public sentiments for half a century more typically showed 90 percent support and more for the great leader – a farcical and demeaning legacy that, mercifully, has now been challenged throughout the region.
The ups and downs of pluralistic public political sentiments were also captured in a yearlong Baseera poll of Egyptians from July 2012 to August 2013, during the Morsi presidency – with follow-up polls this year. These reaffirmed two crucial points: that Egyptians will judge their president by his conduct in office, and that the Muslim Brotherhood enjoys a solid core of support from roughly a quarter of the population.
It showed that public approval of Morsi declined from 76 percent to 32 percent during the year, when disapproval also rose from 9 percent to 61 percent; but 25 percent of Egyptians polled in June this year said they would vote again for Morsi. In November 2013, after Morsi rammed through his party’s constitutional declaration that solidified Muslim Brotherhood control of political power, public sentiment was 30 percent in favor and 37 percent against, with the rest unsure.
These and many other indicators emphatically remind us that Egyptians’ wide range of political views constantly evolve over time, in response to the conduct of politicians in office. It is fair to expect that a President Sisi will be judged by his compatriots in the year ahead in the same manner that they judged the last president they elected.
In my view, the most important finding in the Baseera poll was the one showing that 83 percent of respondents said they thought Egyptians were not afraid of the state. This means that most Egyptians have achieved a level of citizen empowerment and agency that is unprecedented in modern Arab history. They will express their views and exercise their political rights to hold their government accountable.
Most worrying for any Egyptian leader today, though, is the finding in both polls that a large majority of Egyptians – around 70 percent or so – feel their living conditions have worsened or are worried by the direction of their country. This is the majority that counts when the time comes to judge the performance of any new government or president, because ordinary Egyptians have learned how to install and remove presidents and governments.
It remains unclear whether these sentiments among Egyptians were a genuine and lasting political statement or merely a short-lived form of mass hysteria that understandably sought the comforts of a secure and orderly life under a strongman.
The presidential election in a few days probably will not clarify this issue, because of the boycott by the Muslim Brotherhood and the authorities’ continued suppression measures against leftist, independent and progressive activists in Egypt.
We will get a more accurate picture of public political sentiments in Egypt only after President Sisi bears the weight and test of incumbency. The Egyptian public in the year ahead will judge how he behaves and what he delivers in response to the urgent need to provide real services and jobs – rather than emotional fantasies and cave-dwelling, feel-good hope – to tens of millions of needy Egyptians. This force of the public will – the consent of the governed – will ultimately define the nature of Egyptian public politics and governance, and who leads the government.
We must not be dazzled or disoriented by the state-sanctioned public political behavior that we can see, while opposition forces are banned or intimidated. Fortunately, we have a more accurate picture of political sentiments among Egyptians from polls conducted by respected local and foreign pollsters. Two in particular – by the Bassera organization in Egypt last year and the Pew Research Center last month – provide important insights into the two enduring realities that should shield us from being blinded by the craze of the moment: that significant pluralism in ideological sentiments defines Egyptian society, and that the public’s support for any single person or party will change significantly over time.
The Pew poll revealed some fascinating realities, including that last July’s military takeover is now supported by a slender majority of 54 percent, while 43 percent oppose it. Sisi enjoys marginal majority approval rather than overwhelming popularity, receiving a favorable rating from 54 percent of Egyptians, while 45 percent view him unfavorably.
Morsi is rated favorably by 42 percent of those polled, a drop from 53 percent in last year’s survey. About four-in-10 Egyptians continue to have a positive view of the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been banned by the current government and named a terrorist group.
These swings in public sentiment are a normal reflection of human nature. They are also a welcome novelty in the Arab region, where state-hijacked public sentiments for half a century more typically showed 90 percent support and more for the great leader – a farcical and demeaning legacy that, mercifully, has now been challenged throughout the region.
The ups and downs of pluralistic public political sentiments were also captured in a yearlong Baseera poll of Egyptians from July 2012 to August 2013, during the Morsi presidency – with follow-up polls this year. These reaffirmed two crucial points: that Egyptians will judge their president by his conduct in office, and that the Muslim Brotherhood enjoys a solid core of support from roughly a quarter of the population.
It showed that public approval of Morsi declined from 76 percent to 32 percent during the year, when disapproval also rose from 9 percent to 61 percent; but 25 percent of Egyptians polled in June this year said they would vote again for Morsi. In November 2013, after Morsi rammed through his party’s constitutional declaration that solidified Muslim Brotherhood control of political power, public sentiment was 30 percent in favor and 37 percent against, with the rest unsure.
These and many other indicators emphatically remind us that Egyptians’ wide range of political views constantly evolve over time, in response to the conduct of politicians in office. It is fair to expect that a President Sisi will be judged by his compatriots in the year ahead in the same manner that they judged the last president they elected.
In my view, the most important finding in the Baseera poll was the one showing that 83 percent of respondents said they thought Egyptians were not afraid of the state. This means that most Egyptians have achieved a level of citizen empowerment and agency that is unprecedented in modern Arab history. They will express their views and exercise their political rights to hold their government accountable.
Most worrying for any Egyptian leader today, though, is the finding in both polls that a large majority of Egyptians – around 70 percent or so – feel their living conditions have worsened or are worried by the direction of their country. This is the majority that counts when the time comes to judge the performance of any new government or president, because ordinary Egyptians have learned how to install and remove presidents and governments.
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