Another Bloodbath in Lebanon?

By Mike Whitney

"When Hezbollah puts a million people on the streets of Beirut, it doesn’t appear on the front page of the New York Times. That spot is reserved for Bush’s “made-in-Washington” extravaganzas like the Cedar, Orange or Rose revolutions. Those bogus revolutions were cooked up in American think tanks and engineered by US NGOs; that’s why they got headline coverage in the Times. The Beirut demonstrations don’t promote the political agenda of the America’s ruling elite, so they’re stuck on page 8 where they’ll be ignored.

But the demonstrations are an important part of the drama which is currently unfolding in the region. They signal the shifting of power away from Washington and Tel Aviv to a new Shiite-dominated Middle East. The American-backed government of Fouad Siniora is the next domino on the list which could fall in a matter of weeks. Time appears to be running out for Siniora and there’s nothing Bush or Olmert can do about it.

Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nassrullah, is moving Lebanon towards "democratization" by demanding greater representation for the country’s majority, the Shi’is. So far, he’s decided to take the peaceful route, but the massive protests are an impressive “show of force” that could be a sign of things to come. If the situation deteriorates, Hizbullah will do what is necessary to defend its people and its interests. Siniora knows that Nassrullah has the power to bring down the government or to plunge the country into civil war. So, it's all a matter of who blinks first.......

“Class struggle” is a big part of the present confrontation. The media has tried to emphasize the religious differences to promote their theory of a “clash of civilizations”; the ongoing struggle between modernity and Arab reactionaries. It’s all the same gibberish Americans read every day in op-ed columns by Tom Friedman, David Brooks or the other neocon scribes.......

Siniora is Washington’s man. In fact, he even kept the lines of communication open with Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, while his country was being bombed with American ordinance dropped from Israeli planes. After the war he quickly reopened the US embassy even though his country’s infrastructure was still in ruins from Israel’s 34 Day rampage. He has been a great asset to US-Israeli plans to create a “New Middle East”, but utterly useless for the great body of poverty-stricken and homeless Lebanese civilians.......

The US and Israel are working feverishly behind the scenes to destabilize Lebanon as part of their broader plans for the entire region. The assassination of Lebanese Industry Minister, Pierre Gemayel can only be understood in this larger context. The assassination strengthened the US-Israel position vis a vis Syria and increased the likelihood of a confrontation between Hizbullah and government forces. This is precisely what Israel wants. It allows Tel Aviv to stay uninvolved while their 34 Day War resumes via their Lebanese proxies........

The Siniora government has actually moved troops out of the army into the Internal Security Forces (ISF). The implication is clear. Siniora has no interest in defending his country from foreign (Israeli) invasion; he’s simply getting ready to fight his own people. Clearly, the weapons from the United Arab Emirates are being provided under Bush’s authority to help Siniora in a future confrontation with Hezbollah........

Nevertheless, Israel is preparing for any eventuality; especially since it is unlikely that Bush will be able to commit any American troops if war breaks out. Ha’aretz summarized the somber mood of the Israeli high-command in an editorial earlier in the week:

“The army’s conclusion is that a war in the near future is a reasonable possibility. As Amir Oren reported several weeks ago, the IDF’s operative assumption is that during the coming summer months, a war will break out against Hezbollah and perhaps against Syria as well.” "

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"The implication is clear. Siniora has no interest in defending his country from foreign (Israeli) invasion; he’s simply getting ready to fight his own people"

This statement applies equally to the puppet Abbas. The PA has over 80,000 men in "security" services. But whose security? Israel's, of course. When Palestinian women and children were being slaughtered by Israel in Beit Hanoun and elsewhere in Gaza and the West Bank, these "security" forces were nowhere to be seen. But now that Abbas is implementing Condoleezza's coup attempt against Hamas, he is moving these forces to the border areas (to protect Israel) and is moving the Badr forces from Jordan (generous contribution of the puppet boy king) to fight Palestinians in Gaza.