by William S. Lind
"......This is a danger sign that should engage the urgent attention of senior American commanders. If we replace a war against Iraqi Sunnis with a war against the Shi'ites, we will not only have suffered a serious, self-inflicted operational defeat, we will endanger our whole position in Iraq, since our supply lines mostly run through Shi'ite country.
I say such a defeat would be self-inflicted because Shi'ite attacks on Americans in Baghdad seem to be responses to American actions. In dealing with the Shi'ites, we appear to be doing what spurred the growth of the Sunni insurgency, i.e., raids, air strikes and a "kill or capture" policy directed against local Shi'ite leaders. Not only does this lead to retaliation, it also fractures Muqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army as he tries to avoid fighting us. Such fracturing works against, not for, the potential re-creation of an Iraqi state.
A return to practices we know are counterproductive in dealing with Iraq's Shi'ites raises the question of motive. Are we so bloody stupid that at the same time we seem to have learned something about counterinsurgency against the Sunnis we are making the same old mistakes with the Shi'ites? Perhaps.
But perhaps something else is going on here. According to the story by Miss Gamel, General Odierno blamed not his own actions but Iran for the rise in Shi'ite attacks on Americans. Is a war with Iraq's Shi'ites a prelude to war with Iran? For the sake of the army we have in Iraq and our strategic position in the region, let us hope not. Sometimes, sheer stupidity is the most reassuring explanation for our actions."
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