A Good Analysis
By Alastair Crooke, Conflicts Forum, January 11, 2009
(Alastair Crooke is a former European Union mediator with Hamas and is currently director of Conflicts Forum, based in Beirut)
Many have asked in the wake of Israel’s attack on Gaza, how Hamas, if it saw the consequences of ending the ceasefire — and Hamas did foresee the likelihood of disproportionate Israeli military action — nonetheless could have acquiesced to the inevitable bloodshed — bloodshed that an Israeli army, fixated on restoring its deterrence after its failed 2006 war with Hesballah, would visit on the citizens of Gaza. Some may read into this decision the cynicism of a movement that prioritises resistance; but to do so would be to misread how Hamas analyses their situation and understands the nature of resistance.
At one level, the six month ceasefire simply had failed to satisfy two key litmus tests: The circumstances of life of the Gazan people continually had deteriorated, and the ceasefire was not seen to be taking the Palestinian people any closer to a political solution. On the contrary, Hamas saw a settlement receding further into the distance.......
In making such a decision, Hamas knew it could not defeat Israel’s military strength; but the ‘war’ already is shuffling the cards of both Palestinian and regional politics. If it extends, and if the resistance is perceived by Palestinians and Muslims to acquit itself well, then the structure of Palestinian leadership may fall ripe to major re-structuring. Equally the regional anger being generated by graphic scenes of death in Gaza possesses a potential for the conflict to widen geographically and is coalescing Arab and Islamic resistance against certain Arab leaderships. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah of Hesballah has pointed to this prospect in two recent key speeches: Were such a broadening-out of the conflict to occur, it will carry important consequences. These are all big and significant ‘ifs’. But Hamas’ decision should be placed against this backdrop — rather than be painted as the callous disregard of Palestinian lives."
Many have asked in the wake of Israel’s attack on Gaza, how Hamas, if it saw the consequences of ending the ceasefire — and Hamas did foresee the likelihood of disproportionate Israeli military action — nonetheless could have acquiesced to the inevitable bloodshed — bloodshed that an Israeli army, fixated on restoring its deterrence after its failed 2006 war with Hesballah, would visit on the citizens of Gaza. Some may read into this decision the cynicism of a movement that prioritises resistance; but to do so would be to misread how Hamas analyses their situation and understands the nature of resistance.
At one level, the six month ceasefire simply had failed to satisfy two key litmus tests: The circumstances of life of the Gazan people continually had deteriorated, and the ceasefire was not seen to be taking the Palestinian people any closer to a political solution. On the contrary, Hamas saw a settlement receding further into the distance.......
In making such a decision, Hamas knew it could not defeat Israel’s military strength; but the ‘war’ already is shuffling the cards of both Palestinian and regional politics. If it extends, and if the resistance is perceived by Palestinians and Muslims to acquit itself well, then the structure of Palestinian leadership may fall ripe to major re-structuring. Equally the regional anger being generated by graphic scenes of death in Gaza possesses a potential for the conflict to widen geographically and is coalescing Arab and Islamic resistance against certain Arab leaderships. Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah of Hesballah has pointed to this prospect in two recent key speeches: Were such a broadening-out of the conflict to occur, it will carry important consequences. These are all big and significant ‘ifs’. But Hamas’ decision should be placed against this backdrop — rather than be painted as the callous disregard of Palestinian lives."
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