In Cairo, as in places all over the country, all eyes are fixed on the drama that is unfolding in Tunisia. Jack Shenker travelled across Egypt and heard people increasingly asking: could it happen here, and if so, when?
A GOOD, LONG ARTICLE
A GOOD, LONG ARTICLE
Jack Shenker
The Observer, Sunday 23 January 2011
"...."We couldn't believe our eyes," grinned Shamad, recalling the sight of Tunisia's ousted despot, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, fleeing a land he had ruled for 23 years. "I'm so proud of the Tunisian people. When you see a friend or brother succeeding in some great struggle, it gives you hope, hope for yourself and hope for your country."
In common with two-thirds of Egypt's population, Shamad has lived his entire life under the presidency of Hosni Mubarak, a key western ally whose three-decade grip over one of the most pivotal states in the Arab world has looked marginally more shaky following the events in Tunisia.....
"It's not as if we want to sit here passively and accept the situation," Shamad said. "But the instinct of our generation is to avoid the state, not confront it. I know that there are big demonstrations planned for next Tuesday, but we're taught from birth to be fearful of the police. They know how to hurt you, and hurt the ones you love."
Tuesday's demonstrations will take the form of a nationwide set of anti-Mubarak protests, dubbed "revolution day" by opposition activists who hope that Tunisia's uprising will embolden the vast number of individuals like Shamad and persuade them that the time is right to make their voices heard......
"At the informal level – blogs, social media – there's been an explosion of political activity, entirely disconnected from the official mechanisms of government," said Amr Hamzawy, research director at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut. Yet this dynamism has largely failed to spill on to the street, where Mubarak's ubiquitous security apparatus still maintains near-total control. The only sector of society that has succeeded in physically occupying areas controlled by the state is Egypt's beleaguered workforce, which has confronted the regime over a range of economic grievances and succeeded in extracting concessions.
"This is where the regime is most fearful," said Gamila Ismail, a dissident politician who unsuccessfully challenged the NDP in the recent elections. "They don't want the young, online activists with their political demands linking up and inspiring the labour force who are campaigning for a better standard of living. If youth in Cairo and Alexandria are connecting with Mahalla, then the government knows it is in trouble."[This should be a part of the strategy! This is how they did it in Tunisia.].....
... "Of course, we are all excited about Tunisia; the people there threw off their shackles and I pray we could do the same," said Mahmoud Abdel Halim, 29, a construction worker. "But I don't see how we could repeat Tunisia here. I haven't heard about any protests, and even if I had it's not like I can afford to stop work and go and get arrested [Here is the problem in Egypt: not enough people willing to take the risk.].".......
Not everyone agrees. Another 70 miles north-west, in a wood-panelled Alexandrian coffee shop facing the Mediterranean, Hossam al-Wakeel shook his head angrily at the suggestion that his own organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, was betraying the anti-Mubarak movement by refusing to participate in Tuesday's "revolution day".[That is the "Brotherhood" for you! What weasels!]
"Will those coming out on Tuesday bring down the regime? I think not," said al-Wakeel, 23, a journalist. "The Muslim Brotherhood believes that change must come from below, that we must rebuild society layer by layer as part of a gradual process, not chase revolution [What a cop out! These people are not interested in revolution, they just want a place at the Pharaoh's dinner table.] and impose new leaders from the top." Earnest, cardigan-clad and sporting a trim black beard, Wakeel explained why he had thrown in his lot with the only opposition movement that has the capacity to bring hundreds of thousands on to the streets – and yet persistently refuses to do so.....
It seems doubtful that protests on Tuesday will provide that spark, although anything could transpire on the day. But when the spark does come, there can be no doubt the country's angry youth will be leading the way."
The Observer, Sunday 23 January 2011
"...."We couldn't believe our eyes," grinned Shamad, recalling the sight of Tunisia's ousted despot, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, fleeing a land he had ruled for 23 years. "I'm so proud of the Tunisian people. When you see a friend or brother succeeding in some great struggle, it gives you hope, hope for yourself and hope for your country."
In common with two-thirds of Egypt's population, Shamad has lived his entire life under the presidency of Hosni Mubarak, a key western ally whose three-decade grip over one of the most pivotal states in the Arab world has looked marginally more shaky following the events in Tunisia.....
"It's not as if we want to sit here passively and accept the situation," Shamad said. "But the instinct of our generation is to avoid the state, not confront it. I know that there are big demonstrations planned for next Tuesday, but we're taught from birth to be fearful of the police. They know how to hurt you, and hurt the ones you love."
Tuesday's demonstrations will take the form of a nationwide set of anti-Mubarak protests, dubbed "revolution day" by opposition activists who hope that Tunisia's uprising will embolden the vast number of individuals like Shamad and persuade them that the time is right to make their voices heard......
"At the informal level – blogs, social media – there's been an explosion of political activity, entirely disconnected from the official mechanisms of government," said Amr Hamzawy, research director at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut. Yet this dynamism has largely failed to spill on to the street, where Mubarak's ubiquitous security apparatus still maintains near-total control. The only sector of society that has succeeded in physically occupying areas controlled by the state is Egypt's beleaguered workforce, which has confronted the regime over a range of economic grievances and succeeded in extracting concessions.
"This is where the regime is most fearful," said Gamila Ismail, a dissident politician who unsuccessfully challenged the NDP in the recent elections. "They don't want the young, online activists with their political demands linking up and inspiring the labour force who are campaigning for a better standard of living. If youth in Cairo and Alexandria are connecting with Mahalla, then the government knows it is in trouble."[This should be a part of the strategy! This is how they did it in Tunisia.].....
... "Of course, we are all excited about Tunisia; the people there threw off their shackles and I pray we could do the same," said Mahmoud Abdel Halim, 29, a construction worker. "But I don't see how we could repeat Tunisia here. I haven't heard about any protests, and even if I had it's not like I can afford to stop work and go and get arrested [Here is the problem in Egypt: not enough people willing to take the risk.].".......
Not everyone agrees. Another 70 miles north-west, in a wood-panelled Alexandrian coffee shop facing the Mediterranean, Hossam al-Wakeel shook his head angrily at the suggestion that his own organisation, the Muslim Brotherhood, was betraying the anti-Mubarak movement by refusing to participate in Tuesday's "revolution day".[That is the "Brotherhood" for you! What weasels!]
"Will those coming out on Tuesday bring down the regime? I think not," said al-Wakeel, 23, a journalist. "The Muslim Brotherhood believes that change must come from below, that we must rebuild society layer by layer as part of a gradual process, not chase revolution [What a cop out! These people are not interested in revolution, they just want a place at the Pharaoh's dinner table.] and impose new leaders from the top." Earnest, cardigan-clad and sporting a trim black beard, Wakeel explained why he had thrown in his lot with the only opposition movement that has the capacity to bring hundreds of thousands on to the streets – and yet persistently refuses to do so.....
It seems doubtful that protests on Tuesday will provide that spark, although anything could transpire on the day. But when the spark does come, there can be no doubt the country's angry youth will be leading the way."
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