Is The Libyan Revolution Unraveling?

A COMMENT

By Tony Sayegh

It is happening so fast, it makes your head spin. Just 4 days ago, it appeared that the Libyan revolution was very close to total victory. The revolutionaries were at the gates of the tyrant, demonstrations were taking place in Tripoli itself, most major cities were in the hands of the rebels and the despot was on the run. Around 75% of the country was in the hands of the revolutionaries.

And then, the revolution stalled. Instead of storming the Bastille and keeping the momentum, it hesitated. This gave the despot a chance to organize, regroup and to launch a ferocious attack. Now, even an attack on Benghazi is a matter of time. The rebels appear to be in full retreat.

What went wrong? Is this going to be a repeat of Assad's bloodbath in the Syrian city of Hamma? Or a repeat of the Algerian bloodbath against the Islamists who had won the election? If Gaddafi has a clear win he will no doubt slaughter tens (if not hundreds) of thousands.

This has been a lesson in the importance of momentum, organizing and strategy. Similar to what happened in Syria and Algeria before, it illustrates the grave risks of taking on a murderous dictator militarily, unless you are prepared and you have a clear strategy.

The success of the revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia, was in part due to the fact that from beginning to end those were unarmed, peaceful protests. They relied on mass mobilization and civil disobedience. But in both countries the organizers kept the discipline and refused to be dragged into armed confrontations, even when hundreds of protesters were killed by the police and the regime's thugs.

I am not saying that armed struggle should always be out of the question. However, when adopted it should be a part of a deliberate, meticulously planned guerrilla struggle against a much better armed regime. That was not the case in Libya. The resistance was spontaneous, unplanned and almost chaotic. The youth, while possessing a lot of courage and motivation, are untrained and undisciplined.

The Tunisian and Egyptian armies have a history of cohesion and in both cases refused to crack down on the demonstrators. In contrast, the tyrant of Libya always kept the army weak, because he never trusted it. Instead, he relied on his well-trained and well-armed militias and mercenaries, commanded by his own sons. Thus, even though some units of the Libyan army deserted the despot and joined the revolution, they were not sufficient and did not have the time to train and organize the resistance.

The fear now is that too much hope is being placed on the Arab League, the Security Council and the no-fly zone. The tyrant knows that he has the momentum and the no-fly zone will need time to implement. This is why he is unleashing his counterattack at full speed. He knows that if he bombs Benghazi into submission in a matter of days, then the no-fly zone will be too little, too late.

This is a critical time for the revolution. Having lost the momentum it should be using the precious time left to prepare for a secret and long-term struggle against the despot. Arms should be stored in safe places, secret cells organized and scattered throughout the country, etc.

In a struggle like this, there is no stasis: you either attack and advance or you are attacked.

Let us hope for the best and long live the brave Libyan people.