Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Aleppo: The last battle for Syria

The current fighting in the city marks a turning point in deciding fate of the Assad regime and the uprising in Syria.

By Larbi Sadiki

"The battle of Aleppo marks a turning point in terms of deciding the fate of the Arab Spring in Syria and the future of the Alawite dynasty in power.

The stakes could not get higher. There are several dynamics and questions at play in this battle, making the latest escalation decisive.

The Assads and their entourage sought from the outset to militarise peaceful protests. They hedged their bets on using overkill power to nip the Syrian version of the Arab Spring in the bud.
As the Aleppo battle rages on unabated, the saying "hoist with one's own petard" applies to Bashar al-Assad. His military machine is haemorrhaging with daily defections, including by historically loyal Sunnis from the upper echelons of the army.

The outcome of the battle for Aleppo is crucial not only for the Syrian parties vying directly for control of Syria. Also, and equally important, there are outsiders whose own interests, policies or investments in this battle - as well as in the phases leading to it - await vindication or validation.....

Right now, while fighting for prevalence in Aleppo, both the revolutionaries and regime are already strategizing and operating on the basis of a new reality expected to emerge from the current fighting.

In the spectre of possible defeat, each party is regrouping internally to fend off threats to their existence, and working externally to seek alliances that will provide material resources and endorsement.

In such circumstances, the Syrian revolution may be taking a route in which the Syrians themselves have only limited control over its pace, strategies and outcomes. A revolution that started out peacefully has become one of tragedy and loss. It will be worth it when and if authoritarian rule is defeated."

No comments: