Analysis: Egypt prepares leap in the dark. Again

Protesters light a poster of President Mohamed Mursi on fire in Tahrir square as they listen to Mursi's public address, in Cairo June 26, 2013.

Credit: Reuters/Asmaa Waguih

By Alastair Macdonald and Yasmine Saleh

CAIRO | Thu Jun 27, 2013 6:07pm EDT

"CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt is heading for a "dark tunnel", says the head of its armed forces. How he and his generals respond to a political showdown in the streets may determine whether its new democracy survives to see the light.
The warning at the start of the week from General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was presented as a wake-up call to the rival factions, President Mohamed Mursi and his Islamist allies on one side, a disparate coalition of liberals and a mass of Egyptians simply frustrated by economic stagnation on the other.
But the velvet glove of Sisi's language, urging politicians to find consensus and avert bloodshed, could not conceal an iron-fist of possible intervention, even if he was widely believed when he said the generals, secure and prosperous in their new role, have no wish to go back to running the country.
One thing is clear. The "consensus" Sisi urged politicians to reach this week is absent. A vague offer from Mursi of collaboration was met with disdain from the opposition.
So whether the generals step in, with their half million men, U.S.-funded hardware and a 60-year-old sense of entitlement, now depends on how the next few days play out at flash points like Tahrir Square and Mursi's palace in Cairo and on the streets of a dozen other major cities across the country.

The numbers on the street will matter. So too will violence......

The military source who spoke to Reuters said a turnout at opposition protests on the scale of 2011 - many millions drawn from across society and prepared to stay on the streets for days or weeks - could see Mursi obliged to relent: "If the protesters' numbers exceed those seen during the revolution, then everybody's position will have to change," he said.
"No one will be able to oppose the will of the people," he added. "At least, not for long."

Veteran commentator Mohamed Hassenein Heikal, who has close ties to the military, told a television interviewer the army was concerned at a lack of vision for the future among politicians: "The army will always side with the people," he said. "Whether their will is expressed at the ballot box or in some other way."......"