Hezbollah's Gamble in Syria

The Dangerous Calculation Behind the Group's Decision to Back Assad

GOOD ANALYSIS

Mona Yacoubian

June 2, 2013

Foreign Affairs

"Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, appeared to cross a Rubicon last week. In a defiant speech on May 25, he emphasized the Lebanese Shia militant group’s unbridled support for the Assad regime in Syria. In doing so, he lifted the veil of secrecy that had surrounded Hezbollah’s deepening involvement in Syria. Of course, Hezbollah’s backing of Syria had never been in question. Yet the organization had worked assiduously to cover its tracks, even as the number of funerals for those “martyred” in Syria mounted.

Beyond publicly confirming what everyone already assumed, the speech, which was staunchly sectarian, signals a critical turning point for Hezbollah. It could mark the group’s transformation from resistance movement to sectarian militia. Nasrallah delivered an unprecedented and stinging criticism of Sunni hard-liners in Syria, whom he termed takfiris (apostates). He heralded a “new stage” in Lebanon’s struggle against external threats, adding a jihadist-controlled Syria to a list of enemies that already includes Israel and the United States.
Hezbollah’s ongoing metamorphosis will provoke a strong response from Syrian rebels as well as from Lebanon’s increasingly radicalized Sunni community........

But as the conflict deepened and armed rebels increasingly threatened the Syrian regime, Hezbollah and Iran solidified their support for Assad. Hezbollah initially provided discreet advice and training to Syrian forces, particularly the Alawite paramilitary groups known as the shabiha, which are believed to be responsible for undertaking Sunni massacres and other sectarian violence. Over time, though, Hezbollah headed to the front lines. Today, the number of Hezbollah fighters inside Syria is estimated to be in the thousands.........

The stakes in Qusayr are high, and the Syrian regime -- and now Hezbollah -- has pulled out all the stops to win it. As a result, Hezbollah has suffered significant casualties. Reportedly the group lost dozens of fighters (some estimates are as high as 75), the highest death toll in any battle since Hezbollah’s 2006 war with Israel. It is therefore understandable that Nasrallah no longer felt able to deny Hezbollah’s intense involvement in Syria. Yet it is ironic that he would choose the commemoration of Israel’s 2000 withdrawal from Lebanon, which was the ultimate triumph of Hezbollah’s resistance efforts, to come clean and introduce a new, sectarian narrative for his group. It was almost breathtaking to hear Nasrallah contort his group’s traditional talk about resistance against Israel -- a broad appeal to the Arab street -- into a thinly veiled defense of Shia interests. Hezbollah’s survival is now grounded firmly in its alliance with two brutish regimes in the Shia orbit. The galvanizing narrative of resistance to Israel is fast being overtaken by an even more powerful, yet divisive, sectarian dynamic......

......Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s credibility in the Arab and Muslim world will likely be damaged irreparably, which will place the group increasingly at odds with the Sunni community and diminish its appeal more broadly.
The positive wave unleashed by the Arab rebellions has given way to a more dangerous undercurrent. Fueled by the growing influence of identity politics, tribalism, and sectarian dynamics, the stakes for many are existential. Hezbollah’s embrace of a sectarian agenda is emblematic of the deeper dynamic that is reshaping the region, particularly the Levant. Although it may be motivated by self-preservation and a deeply ingrained survival instinct, Hezbollah’s turn toward sectarianism promises to unleash far more serious challenges, imperiling Hezbollah and likely marking the end of Lebanon’s relative stability."