The US campaign to 'persuade' Iran

By Ehsan Ahrari
Asia Times

"No one should think that just because the US has not invaded North Korea or used its air power to neutralize Kim Jong-il's nuclear facilities in the aftermath of his nuclear explosion of October 9 it would behave as passively toward Iran. While a "nuclear" North Korea gradually became an acceptable reality for the national-security community in Washington over the past few years, the idea of a "nuclear Iran" remains much more problematical, at least for the hawks in and around the Bush administration. They have ensured that the issue of Iran's nuclear program is never far removed from the radar of the American public, as well as the international community.

President George W Bush, frustrated and disappointed at the ever-deteriorating security situation in Iraq, does not miss a chance to blame some of these woes on the Iranians.

The Saudi decision to rely on US forces once again - even though it carries a high risk of escalated resentment among Wahhabi hardliners inside the kingdom - might have been made for contradictory reasons.

First, the Saudi regime is convinced that its fight with al-Qaeda will only be resolved once one of the parties is eliminated. Thus the Saudis brought in the ultimate "big gun" - the US military- to safeguard their oil facilities and, in the process, possibly their own survival.

Al-Qaeda has already declared Saudi oil as a target to bring about the ouster of the regime. Given that the industrial world is seriously dependent on Saudi oil, and given that the US has no intention of witnessing the destabilization of Saudi Arabia, a powerful quid pro quo drives the Arab kingdom and the lone superpower toward each other. For the Saudi government, this might be the beginning of a revival of the US-Saudi friendship that cooled after the Gulf War in 1991.

Second, the Saudi government - along with other Persian Gulf sheikhdoms - doesn't want to see the emergence of a "nuclear Iran" in its neighborhood. These sheikhdoms do not necessarily share the frightening US and Israeli scenarios of Iranian menace. But they are concerned that their region will be further destabilized if the US or Israel were to decide to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities.

So the Saudis might be hoping that the presence of US ships in their port will send the "right" signal to Iran that it had better rethink its intransigence regarding its uranium-enrichment program. If Iran does not respond the way the Saudis anticipate, then US-led military exercise might do its share in "persuading Iran".

So the Bush administration is regaining the friendship of the Saudis and busy persuading other Gulf emirates to create some distance from Iran. However, Iran is not without friends, and the US and the Saudis will not have it all their own way."

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In my opinion the so-called Al-Qa'ida threat is a hoax. The U.S. military presence in the Gulf is strictly aimed at Iran and to minimize risk to Saudi oil installations from Iranian retaliation when (not if) the U.S. attacks Iran.