Saturday, February 5, 2011

Arab uprisings: why no one saw them coming

The west failed to 'see like citizens' and missed the signs that people in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen were at breaking point

Mariz Tadros
guardian.co.uk, Saturday 5 February 2011

"Why did diplomats, policymakers, analysts and academics fail to see and understand the growing popular unrest in Tunisia, Egypt and other Arab countries?

It seems that the reasons why we thought a revolution impossible were wrong, our identification of the agents of change was misguided and our understanding of how collective mobilisation happens was too narrow. We need new ways to capture what is happening on the ground through the eyes of these countries' people.......

Seeing like citizens

Informed by social movement theory about actors, agency and how change happens, we ended up asking the wrong questions as to why the people have risen. In Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, was there an organised social movement? Certainly not. Did they have visible leadership? No. Did they have a massive, or at least significant following? Not in the conventional sense of a mobilised constituency.

Our analytical perspectives failed to enable us to "see like citizens" and understand that people were overcoming barriers of fear and reaching breaking point.

However, it is not too late to be responsive: international diplomats need to side with the people now. Otherwise, it is not only the legitimacy of the current Egyptian regime that is at stake, but also the legitimacy of the entire international human rights framework."

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