By Mona Alami
"BEIRUT, Jan 24, 2012 (IPS) - As the Syrian uprising enters its tenth month, the country’s economy is suffering. Since last March, the Syrian government has been cracking down on pro-democracy protests, and the once peaceful uprising has morphed into a full-blown armed rebellion in areas such as Homs, Hama and Jabal al-Zawiya.
"The situation is extremely difficult to assess," Damascus-based economist Jihad Yazigi, author of the Syria Report, tells IPS on phone. The report published by the Middle East Information and Communication Agency (MEICA) headquartered in Paris is one of the leading sources of information on the Syrian economy.
However, international rating agency Moody’s decision to downgrade neighbouring Lebanon’s banking sector outlook from stable to negative earlier this month was partly motivated by the deteriorating situation in Syria and other regional hotspots. It cited Lebanese banks’ asset and loan exposures to Syria and other countries witnessing unrest.....
A recent post in Syria Comment, a blog by political scientist Joshua Landis, also raised the possibility that state banks could eventually default on payments to the private banking system.
"The million dollar question is how long the government can meet its budgetary requirements, estimated around 21 billion dollars a year," says the banker. Before the crisis, the Central Bank’s foreign reserves were 18 billion dollars, according to official data. Some experts estimate reserves to be around 11 billion dollars today.
As fiscal pressures increase, it is left with no option but to print bills, a measure that will lead to further inflation, says the editor of the Syria Report.
The Central Bank has not published figures since last May, which renders projections on the economic future of Syria uncertain. Much will depend on how much monetary support the Assad regime is receiving from its allies, namely Iraq and Iran. "
"BEIRUT, Jan 24, 2012 (IPS) - As the Syrian uprising enters its tenth month, the country’s economy is suffering. Since last March, the Syrian government has been cracking down on pro-democracy protests, and the once peaceful uprising has morphed into a full-blown armed rebellion in areas such as Homs, Hama and Jabal al-Zawiya.
"The situation is extremely difficult to assess," Damascus-based economist Jihad Yazigi, author of the Syria Report, tells IPS on phone. The report published by the Middle East Information and Communication Agency (MEICA) headquartered in Paris is one of the leading sources of information on the Syrian economy.
However, international rating agency Moody’s decision to downgrade neighbouring Lebanon’s banking sector outlook from stable to negative earlier this month was partly motivated by the deteriorating situation in Syria and other regional hotspots. It cited Lebanese banks’ asset and loan exposures to Syria and other countries witnessing unrest.....
A recent post in Syria Comment, a blog by political scientist Joshua Landis, also raised the possibility that state banks could eventually default on payments to the private banking system.
"The million dollar question is how long the government can meet its budgetary requirements, estimated around 21 billion dollars a year," says the banker. Before the crisis, the Central Bank’s foreign reserves were 18 billion dollars, according to official data. Some experts estimate reserves to be around 11 billion dollars today.
As fiscal pressures increase, it is left with no option but to print bills, a measure that will lead to further inflation, says the editor of the Syria Report.
The Central Bank has not published figures since last May, which renders projections on the economic future of Syria uncertain. Much will depend on how much monetary support the Assad regime is receiving from its allies, namely Iraq and Iran. "
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