Russia inherited its Middle East presence from the Soviet Union. Is it about to lose its last ally in a newly democratised Arab world?
Editorial
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 31 January 2012
"....This has the potential to isolate Russia within a reshaped Arab world. Moscow has to address two questions as it prepares to wield its veto. First, as Assad's principal arms supplier, is it backing the loser? If so, it will lose not only the $550m deal it signed with Damascus for trainer aircraft, but the only base it has outside the former Soviet Union and a string of listening posts. The second question is more pressing: is it about to lose its last ally in a newly democratised Arab world, of which Syria will remain a vital hub whatever happens? Russia inherited its Middle East presence from the Soviet Union, but it did not gain any new friends. With Gaddafi gone and Assad on his way out, Russia stands to lose more than physical assets.
.... But Russia is wrong to warn that the resolution will risk civil war. Continuing to back Assad, as it is doing, will propel a civil war. The sooner Assad sees he has no future – and even a watered-down resolution would help that – the sooner leading members of the regime will try to salvage something from the wreckage. The coming civil war will not guarantee the property of minority Alawites or the Sunni merchant class in Damascus and Aleppo. It will engulf them, and the score-settling in Libya will be as nothing to what takes place in Syria."
Editorial
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 31 January 2012
"....This has the potential to isolate Russia within a reshaped Arab world. Moscow has to address two questions as it prepares to wield its veto. First, as Assad's principal arms supplier, is it backing the loser? If so, it will lose not only the $550m deal it signed with Damascus for trainer aircraft, but the only base it has outside the former Soviet Union and a string of listening posts. The second question is more pressing: is it about to lose its last ally in a newly democratised Arab world, of which Syria will remain a vital hub whatever happens? Russia inherited its Middle East presence from the Soviet Union, but it did not gain any new friends. With Gaddafi gone and Assad on his way out, Russia stands to lose more than physical assets.
.... But Russia is wrong to warn that the resolution will risk civil war. Continuing to back Assad, as it is doing, will propel a civil war. The sooner Assad sees he has no future – and even a watered-down resolution would help that – the sooner leading members of the regime will try to salvage something from the wreckage. The coming civil war will not guarantee the property of minority Alawites or the Sunni merchant class in Damascus and Aleppo. It will engulf them, and the score-settling in Libya will be as nothing to what takes place in Syria."
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