Analysis by Tony Sayegh
Are you confused and bewildered by all that is happening now in the Middle East? The killing, mayhem, revolutions, counter-revolutions, changing alliances, etc are enough to make your head spin. Is all of this turmoil simply random violence? Which way is it heading? How to explain it and to make sense of it?
Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Emirates, and even the Syrian regime participated in the destruction of the Iraqi state and helped the US invasion but now complain about the chaos, sectarianism, terrorism that followed. Saudi Arabia helped the US to get rid of Saddam but now complains about and feels threatened by the huge Iranian influence in Iraq.
The US, which for a long time warned of Iranian destabilizing influence finds a very convenient ally in Tehran's favorite choice for Iraq, Maliki. The US and Iran are now, simultaneously, arming and training Maliki's army and militias. How is that possible?
Saudi Arabia is spreading terror in Syria while pretending to care for the Syrian people. That same Saudi Arabia helped fund and engineer the Fascist coup in Egypt under Sisi. Just yesterday the Saudi king congratulated Generalissimo Sisi on the success of the new "constitution" which enshrines the military dictatorship.
Within Egypt itself, how do you explain that the old and fossilized "leftist" political parties support the military dictatorship?
In Syria, how do you explain that intelligent, educated and well-meaning opposition intellectuals were, for a while, pinning their hope on support from the US and the West to get rid of the bloody regime?
How to explain that Hizbullah, which for decades boasted of being the party of resistance and the movement of the oppressed is now actively supporting the oppressor instead?
How to explain that the Great Satan and those "nasty" ayatollahs are now the best of friends and in many cases allies?
Why does Hamas take a clear position in support of the Syrian revolution one day to be followed by backtracking and movement back to Tehran the next day?
Why does Abbas engage in secret "negotiations" while seeing unprecedented expansion of Israeli colonization of the West Bank and the end of any hope for a viable Palestinian state?
Why does Israel which constantly warned of Hizbullah's increasing strength, look the other way while that strength is used to crush the Syrian uprising?
How to explain that the United Arab Emirates now openly maintains close relations with Israel, is warming up to Iran and simultaneously funds the Sisi dictatorship in Egypt?
The contradictions are endless and seem to make no sense at all.
However, once you hit the right button everything starts to fall in place and to make sense. It can all be explained by two words: self preservation; voila!
Saudi Arabia will do anything and everything to preserve that dark, Medieval and feudal kingdom. It helped destroy Iraq, now helping to destroy a genuine and democratic revolution in Syria and is actively supporting the Egyptian military in its counter revolution. The hope is that the Egyptian military could one day be used to save the house of Saud. It intervened to crush the opposition in Bahrain while supposedly supporting the opposition in Syria.
The fossilized "leftist" parties in Egypt are lining up behind the military to get a share of the power. The military itself is cracking down to preserve its economic and political privileges in Egypt and guarantee permanent control .
The murderous Syrian regime that boasts of "resistance" willingly and enthusiastically surrendered its chemical weapons to the US. Its intelligence services are now working closely with those from the US and other Western countries, after calling the uprising in Syria a "Western conspiracy." Why? To preserve the regime, of course.
Hizbullah is a tool of Iran and will do what Iran orders and will act to preserve itself; all the rhetoric of resistance and helping the oppressed is only to fool the people.
Hamas is in a very tight spot and also wants to preserve itself; all talk of principles is just talk. When the Brotherhood was in power in Egypt, Hamas supported the Syrian uprising. But now Hamas is back in bed with Iran.
The biggest mystery of all is the emerging alliance of the US and Iran. It is no mystery at all and can again be explained by self preservation. Iran has realized that it can not continue with a confrontation with the West without serious economic consequences; Iran was hurting badly. At the same time Iran has offered itself to the US as a convenient and effective tool to preserve the status quo in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and beyond. The US jumped on the offer since it needs a local power to preserve that status quo now that it is leaving Afghanistan, has nominally left Iraq and does not want to be embroiled directly in any new area.
Israel likes Hizbullah in Syria rather than in Southern Lebanon and would rather preserve the Assad dynasty which has served it well for over 40 years.
The UAE, again wants to preserve its feudal existence and will get closer to both Iran and Israel simultaneously if that serves the purpose.
Many other seeming contradictions can be easily explained in this light.
This leaves the poor and bewildered people of the region to their own devices; confused, hopeless, running in different directions, fighting and killing each other and above all leaderless. Until intelligent, broad-based, progressive political party and leadership emerge in the Arab world, expect more of the same.
The one exception is perhaps the small country of Tunisia which seems to be moving in the right direction.
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