Hamas in the crosshairs

Throughout the year, the US and Israel tried to collapse the Hamas government, an objective sure to survive on the policy agenda of 2008

A Good Analysis
By Saleh Al-Naami
Al-Ahram Weekly

"One November night in 2006 in his fourth floor office in the western wing of the Israeli Ministry of Defence, General Amos Gilad, head of the ministry's department of political security, met with Elliot Abrams, American deputy national security adviser. On the agenda of this meeting that Abrams had come specially to Tel Aviv for was only one item: how to ensure the fall of Hamas after it had grown clear that the siege on the West Bank and Gaza Strip had not only failed to cause its collapse but had actually increased support for Hamas among Palestinians.

As a Hebrew-language documentary shown recently on Israeli television made clear, Gilad and Abrams agreed during the meeting that 2007 would see the fall of the Hamas government and prepare the ground of Palestinian domestic political conditions to prevent the movement's re- election. Thus the main goal of Israel and the US administration in 2007 was securing the fall of Hamas. During the abovementioned meeting, Abrams stressed that mechanisms not previously used must be employed to reach this goal, in coordination with Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas. In its 29 March 2007 issue, the Israeli Haaretz newspaper made note of this meeting and affirmed that Abrams held that the PA's leadership had a fundamental role to play in achieving this goal. It referenced Abrams as saying that this leadership must take political and military steps towards toppling Hamas, in particular through employing Palestinian security agencies against it.......

Yet despite US-Israeli successes in driving wedges between Palestinian movements, 2007 has near ended without Tel Aviv or Washington achieving their goal of bringing down the Hamas government. It is thus expected that in 2008, Israel will undertake a wide scale military campaign in the Gaza Strip to strike at Hamas's military and organisational infrastructure and push towards the collapse of its government.

Indeed, Israel has undertaken preparations for this, although Israeli leaders fear the possibility that their army will fail to achieve the goal. It is still expected, nonetheless, that Israel will undertake this campaign during the first third of 2008, attempting to destroy the organisational and military infrastructure of Hamas and occupying Gaza before handing it over to NATO or the EU, and later the PA of President Abbas.

The success of this scenario is difficult to guarantee, however, for while Israel can take control of Gaza, it would be difficult for it to halt all resistance operations. Israel occupied the Gaza Strip and its army was present in its streets and alleys for more than 38 years, yet resistance was not stopped. Hamas will certainly benefit from an Israeli campaign, for Israeli military control of Gaza would transfer responsibility for services and humanitarian needs from Hamas to Israel.

Further, if Abbas returned to the Strip following Israeli reoccupation of it, Palestinians would view him as a collaborator. Moreover, Israel doubts the ability of Abbas to run the Strip's affairs once Israeli forces leave. Making matters more complicated is the fact that 2008 will likely see new legislative elections in Israel that will result in gains for the extreme right. This in itself will narrow the margin of manoeuvre for Abbas and supporting Arab states.

Hamas's successful survival through these upcoming developments will strengthen its legitimacy, and bets will no longer be placed on negotiations with Israel. It is expected that Hamas will have learned from the lesson, and that following the military campaign against the Strip, it will work to put an end to the PA in its present form and make the world shoulder its responsibilities towards the Palestinians....."