Despite the hopes of overexcited western commentators, demonstrations in Iran are likely to change very little
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 24 June 2009
" hate to say it but to all the dreamers in the western press who say that Iran will never be the same – lines lifted from protests past, from Ukraine to Burma to Lebanon – once all the debris is swept up, the Islamic republic will probably look eerily similar to how it looked before the presidential election.....
Nor should we interfere. The last time the US tried to give Iranian democracy a boost (a Bush programme to hand $75m to civil society groups there) it was ridiculed as tainted money and hurt the groups it was trying to help. Worse, whenever the White House blesses a regime change or coup (see Chávez, Hugo), it's the kiss of death.
Let's be honest about events in Iran. Yes, it is the largest popular uprising that country has seen since 1979. But that does not mean it heralds the imminent collapse of the current regime. Let's hope that I am wrong."