Sunday, June 28, 2009

Will Iran Election Turmoil Affect Hezbollah?


By Franklin Lamb – Dahiyeh, Lebanon
Palestine Chronicle

"Some Legmen for the US Israeli lobby, and even some here in Lebanon appear barely able to contain themselves, such is their felt glee over the Lebanese and Iranian election results. Some supporters of Israel see these results as two recent victories while others calculate that Israel is scratching for some good news given that polling data from Israeli surveys show that more than 50% of its population favors bombing Iran to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapon. Another survey, late last month, found that nearly one third of Israelis polled said they would leave Israel if Iran gets a nuclear weapon which it likely will have-if it decides to-within the next 18 months according to estimates by the Israeli Defense Ministry. Meanwhile US visa applications have broken records, according to the US Embassy in Tel Aviv for three out of the past five months......

According to EyalZisser, head of the department of Middle Eastern and African History at Tel Aviv University, “The Iranian election is a disturbing signal for Syria and Hezbollah. The weaker the regime is, the less it can provide support for Hezbollah."

Eldad Pardo, a Hebrew University professor and Iran specialist, agrees, stating that “It is an extremely heavy blow for Iran's power and image and I would even daresay to Islamic radicalism in general."

David Menashri, head of the Center of Iranian Studies at Tel Aviv University believes that the system in Iran could be so deeply rattled that it will register among Syrian officials and Iran's other allies including Hezbollah.. "The legitimacy of the Iran regime and those it supports has been harmed," Menashri said. "This is an opportunity to crack some heads and start solving some problems.”

Others view this position as Israeli bombast aimed at shoring up its increasingly fatigued population who are witnessing an international increase in support for Palestine and for ending Israel's occupation.

Near term, neither the recent elections or events in Iran appear likely to fundamentally affect Hezbollah. Neither inside Lebanon's new government or internationally."

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