By Tony Karon
Time
".....There's no indication that the President or other key decisionmakers have abandoned their skepticism of a military solution to the standoff, based on an awareness that the consequences of starting a war could be more dangerous than any threat currently posed by Iran. But the Times reports that a debate is under way within the Administration over whether Obama should be amplifying the threat of military action if Iran remains defiant. The Administration's Iran point man, Dennis Ross, has made clear in his writings on the matter that he believes Iran will back down only if it believes it faces a credible threat of military action.....
The fact that the Western powers lack consensus among themselves, much less with other key players such as Russia and China, on an acceptable compromise would only be a problem if there was any expectation of a breakthrough in the next round of talks. But neither side appears to be seeking one. For the U.S., the talks are an opportunity to send Iran a message that pressure will increase until Tehran is ready to yield; for Iran, the negotiations are an opportunity to make clear that it has no intention of backing down, confident it can ride out the sanctions and any other pressure the U.S. can plausibly muster.
The same stalemate persisted through the second term of George W. Bush's Administration, and resulted in Iran crossing the threshold to become a nuclear-capable state by mastering enrichment. But Obama, under pressure from an even more hawkish and assertive Congress, is unlikely to have the luxury enjoyed by his predecessor of maintaining a passive hard line while Iran's nuclear capacity grows."
Time
".....There's no indication that the President or other key decisionmakers have abandoned their skepticism of a military solution to the standoff, based on an awareness that the consequences of starting a war could be more dangerous than any threat currently posed by Iran. But the Times reports that a debate is under way within the Administration over whether Obama should be amplifying the threat of military action if Iran remains defiant. The Administration's Iran point man, Dennis Ross, has made clear in his writings on the matter that he believes Iran will back down only if it believes it faces a credible threat of military action.....
The fact that the Western powers lack consensus among themselves, much less with other key players such as Russia and China, on an acceptable compromise would only be a problem if there was any expectation of a breakthrough in the next round of talks. But neither side appears to be seeking one. For the U.S., the talks are an opportunity to send Iran a message that pressure will increase until Tehran is ready to yield; for Iran, the negotiations are an opportunity to make clear that it has no intention of backing down, confident it can ride out the sanctions and any other pressure the U.S. can plausibly muster.
The same stalemate persisted through the second term of George W. Bush's Administration, and resulted in Iran crossing the threshold to become a nuclear-capable state by mastering enrichment. But Obama, under pressure from an even more hawkish and assertive Congress, is unlikely to have the luxury enjoyed by his predecessor of maintaining a passive hard line while Iran's nuclear capacity grows."
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