Sunday, January 30, 2011

Egypt's military in a quandary


Al Jazeera's senior analyst Marwan Bishara sheds light on what the military is likely to do.

Marwan Bishara

"As Egypt continues to unravel under the pressure of a popular uprising against the Hosni Mubarak government, we look at the role of its military as the guardian of sovereignty and national security.

Where is Egypt heading after days of revolt?

Clearly the way forward is not the way back. But since President Mubarak has opted for more the same old and bankrupt ways of dealing with national uprising, making promises of change and cosmetic alteration to governance essentially, all now depends on the momentum of the popular uprising and the role of the military.

Mubarak's attempts to delegitimise the popular revolt as isolated incidents exploited by Islamists has fallen on deaf ears at home and abroad. As the revolt continues to expand and gain momentum in major Egyptian cities and protestors demand no less than the removal of his regime, it's now the military's choice to allow for the change to be peaceful or violent.

So far, it has opted for merely policing the streets without confronting the demonstrators, whether this will turn into a Tiananmen scenario of tough crackdown or not, will be decided in the next few hours or days.

But Egypt is not China, and it could hardly afford such national confrontation.

But what else can the military do?

The Egyptian military could follow the Tunisian military by refusing orders to shoot at demonstrators or impose the curfew.

The military can replace Mubarak with a temporary emergency governing council or leave it for civilian opposition groups to form government in consultation with the military......"

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