Al Jazeera's senior political analyst comments on the mass public revolt in Egypt.
Marwan Bishara
"Can Mubarak manage the overwhelming show of dissent and stay in political office until the Presidential elections later in the year?
For all practical purpose, Mubarak is history. It will take no less of a miracle or terrible bloodshed to keep him in office any longer.
The cosmetic changes he has carried out over the last few days are meaningless, no less because they have been carried through presidential decrees - this underlines his insistence to micro manage urgent state matters without any role or attention to parliament, the party, or the people in the street.
An orderly and peaceful transition is better off without him, or his new vice, Omar Sulieman, reportedly, among others, the CIA's point counterpart in Egypt that partnered in the rendition programs that led to terrible torture of innocent people.......
Will the ensuing political instability be a boon for the people of Egypt, or will the vacuum be an opportunity for further repression?
Popular uprisings and revolutions are by nature fluid and unpredictable, as they are more concerned with getting rid of the old than defining the new regime.
They promise change, but can make no guarantees that such change is non violent in the short term or lead to pluralistic democracy in the long term.
A peaceful transition depends mostly on the existing power brokers, especially the military and its political partners in Cairo - they are to be blamed if it turns violent.
However, if they agree to cede power, Egypt's transition to a more open and pluralistic system promises to be less chaotic than many other revolutions. Already the nature of the uprising and its various networks and leaders have shown to be wise and responsible......
If Mubarak is ousted who or what has the likeliest chance of replacing him?
What's important is WHAT replaces Mubarak the regime, not WHO will replace Mubarak the person. Replacing Mubarak the person but maintaining Mubarak's regime would be meaningless, as any new figure-leader will continue to answer to the same bankrupt power structure, not to the people.
On the other hand, replacing the Mubarak regime with a new democratic system could guarantee that whoever becomes president will abide by the will of the people and the country's institutions....."
Marwan Bishara
"Can Mubarak manage the overwhelming show of dissent and stay in political office until the Presidential elections later in the year?
For all practical purpose, Mubarak is history. It will take no less of a miracle or terrible bloodshed to keep him in office any longer.
The cosmetic changes he has carried out over the last few days are meaningless, no less because they have been carried through presidential decrees - this underlines his insistence to micro manage urgent state matters without any role or attention to parliament, the party, or the people in the street.
An orderly and peaceful transition is better off without him, or his new vice, Omar Sulieman, reportedly, among others, the CIA's point counterpart in Egypt that partnered in the rendition programs that led to terrible torture of innocent people.......
Will the ensuing political instability be a boon for the people of Egypt, or will the vacuum be an opportunity for further repression?
Popular uprisings and revolutions are by nature fluid and unpredictable, as they are more concerned with getting rid of the old than defining the new regime.
They promise change, but can make no guarantees that such change is non violent in the short term or lead to pluralistic democracy in the long term.
A peaceful transition depends mostly on the existing power brokers, especially the military and its political partners in Cairo - they are to be blamed if it turns violent.
However, if they agree to cede power, Egypt's transition to a more open and pluralistic system promises to be less chaotic than many other revolutions. Already the nature of the uprising and its various networks and leaders have shown to be wise and responsible......
If Mubarak is ousted who or what has the likeliest chance of replacing him?
What's important is WHAT replaces Mubarak the regime, not WHO will replace Mubarak the person. Replacing Mubarak the person but maintaining Mubarak's regime would be meaningless, as any new figure-leader will continue to answer to the same bankrupt power structure, not to the people.
On the other hand, replacing the Mubarak regime with a new democratic system could guarantee that whoever becomes president will abide by the will of the people and the country's institutions....."
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