Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Grasping the Syrian Quagmire



A VERY GOOD AND LONG ARTICLE



"One of the most significant and enduring consequences of the Arab Spring has been the bloody uprising in Syria. For almost a year cities across the Levant have been defying the iron grip of the Assad regime and challenging the police state of the Ba'ath party.

Of all the countries engulfed by the revolutionary fever encompassing the Arab World, Syria, a country of 23 million, epitomizes the toughest case....

Similar to Iraq's Saddam Hussein, every aspect of Syrian politics and public institutions has been dominated by the totalitarian-style of the Ba'ath party since 1963. But unlike Tunisia or Egypt, where the public enjoyed a relatively vibrant civil society, Syria suffers from the total absence of any democratic institutions, civic organizations, or independent media....

....Corruption in Syrian society has become endemic. A small but powerful elite composed of the Assad family and other powerful Alawite families, as well as small number of loyal families from the prominent merchant class in Damascus and Aleppo, have been controlling all major industries, financial institutions, and trade in the country. According to Transparency International, Syria ranks 129 in the world on the corruption index (by comparison, Egypt's Mubarak ranked 112 and Tunisia's Ben Ali, 73).....

But despite the massive evidence of atrocities, why has the Assad regime's assault on its people gone unabated? What are the factors that distinguish Syria from the other uprisings of the Arab Spring? And finally, what are the likely scenarios of the Syrian revolt? To answer these questions one needs first to understand the regional and international context and the players that have a direct stake in the outcome of the Syrian conflict.....

But hypocrisy is not the domain of the West alone. Iran and Hezbollah, which have been very popular with the Arab masses for decades, have also chosen strategic calculations over moral principles. Their unwavering support for the Assad regime, despite its massacres against peaceful protesters, has cost them dearly in the Arab street. In the case of Iran, the support was not only political but included providing military hardware and expertise, tear-gas canisters causing severe burns and partial paralysis for the demonstrators, as well as providing technical assistance in communications and in monitoring the Internet. According to a well-placed source in Damascus, several senior members of Iran's revolutionary guards have been providing technical expertise in command-and-control to the Syrian military onslaught against major cities such as Homs and Hama.

More recently Ali Larijani, Iran's parliamentary speaker, angrily admonished the leaders of the Palestinian resistance groups during their recent visit to Tehran because, unlike Hezbollah, they were not actively and publicly supporting the Assad regime. Shortly after, many Palestinian leaders -- including most Hamas senior cadres -- left the Syrian capital for good as their relations with Tehran and Damascus has reached an historic low....

So what are the possible scenarios for the Syrian quagmire?

The Tunisia/Egyptian scenario:.....

The Yemeni scenario:......

The Libyan scenario:....

The Iraqi/Somali scenario:.....

The assassination plot scenario:....

The grand political bargain scenario:.....

The long-term regime attrition scenario:
In essence, the conflict in Syria is a test of wills between the regime and the Syrian people. For almost a year the Syrian people have demonstrated courage, determination, and resolve to reclaim their freedom against a brutal and bloody regime. After a year full of enormous sacrifices, it is unlikely that the will of the Syrian people could be crushed. The fear of the regime by the people has been broken, as more people from all walks of life across Syria have taken to the streets. Despite its enormous military power, the readiness of the army and security apparatus has been deteriorating daily and cannot be sustained for a long period of time. The economy is collapsing and soon major commercial strikes and civil disobedience might spread, paralyzing the country. In all likelihood, the International Criminal Court will also indict Assad and his senior leaders, tightening the noose around their necks. In this scenario the combined effects of all these measures would result in the collapse of the regime and the disintegration of the exhausted army.....

....Almost a decade later, Iran is committing the same miscalculation with its unconditional backing of the Assad regime. Whichever scenario plays out, it is unlikely that Assad would survive, unless Israel attacks Iran, resulting in a whole new calculus.

Barring this possibility, the question then becomes how would the region look as Assad disappears from the scene: is it the ultimate triumph of people power or a sectarian fire spreading across the entire region?"

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