World View: Compromise is no longer feasible, and the army controls the levers of power. But can its victory be conclusive?
By Patrick Cockburn
".....
In other words, there is going to be a fight to the finish with both sides believing the other has bitten off more than it can chew. The army and security forces control most of the instruments of power and are very unlikely to lose, but can they emerge as an outright and conclusive winner? For all their expressions of dismay at last week's bloodbath, the US and the EU states were so mute and mealy-mouthed about criticising the 3 July coup as to make clear that they prefer the military to the Brotherhood. Given that 500 Egyptian military officers a year – including General Sisi and the air force head General Reda Mahmoud – train in the US they will be well-attuned to what America wants or will accept.
Unsurprisingly, generals and security men prescribe military solutions for political problems. And, if force at first fails, they are likely to see this as a reason to use more force rather than seek compromise. This is a lesson of the Turkish military coup in 1980 in which hundreds of thousands were jailed and tortured, and likewise of the Algerian military takeover in 1992, designed to avoid an election victory by an Islamic party. Military dictatorships often succeed by their own lights, but at horrendous cost to the societies they are supposedly trying to protect. Egyptians will be lucky if they are not at the start of a new dark age of military repression."
No comments:
Post a Comment