If Syria's Assad falls, its Lebanese Shi'ite ally will find itself cut off without military or logistic support, and facing a new Syrian regime out for revenge.
By Zvi Bar'el
HAARETZ
Over the past year the town of Arsal in east Lebanon, on the Syrian border, has become a prison for some 40,000 civilians and as many Syrian refugees who fled there from battles.
This town, famous for its carpet industry, is now surrounded by military forces – the Lebanese Army on the west and Syrian militias in the east, including Nusra Front, which is associated with al-Qaida, and Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. The town, with its predominantly Sunni population, served as an important logistic center for the rebels in Syria, especially for the Free Syrian Army that even set up an improvised hospital there for its wounded soldiers.
In recent days Arsal has become the focus of a political controversy between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Army. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened this week that if the Lebanese Army doesn’t free Arsal, Hezbollah will. The Al–Mustaqbal faction, led by Saad Hariri, Nasrallah’s rival, and a number of Lebanese cabinet members, warned Nasrallah not to take action in Arsal, because the army is responsible for protecting Lebanon.
The conquest of a Sunni town by Hezbollah, a Shi'ite organization, could reignite a war between those who support Hezbollah’s involvement in the war in Syria and those who accuse it of bringing the war into Lebanon.
The argument is reflected in the harsh exchange between Justice Minister Shraf Rifi of Al–Mustaqbal and Hezbollah’s representative Mohammed Raad, as cited in the Lebanese media.
“We are familiar with the crimes your party has committed, inside and outside Lebanon,” Rifi is cited as telling Raad.
“Rifi wants to destroy the state Hezbollah set up while he set up his own little state in Tripoli,” Raad reportedly retorted. Tripoli, Rifi’s home town, is mostly Sunni with a large concentration of Sunni refugees and civilians who oppose Hezbollah.
The pressures on Hezbollah in Lebanon come on top of its defeats in the battles in the Qalamoun Mountains on the Syria-Lebanon border against the Fatah Army, which incorporates Nusra Front and other militias.
Reports from Iran slam Nasrallah for the way he is conducting the campaign and for not coming out of hiding to visit the troops and encourage them. The reports say Iran is thinking of replacing him and appointing him as Hezbollah’s “supreme mentor” without command powers in the field.
Iran has also suspended a number of military appointments Nasrallah wanted to make in south Lebanon and in Baalbek in the Beqaa Valley. In addition, Nasrallah and his deputy Naim Qassem, who sees himself as a potential heir to Nasrallah, are at loggerheads over senior appointments in the organization.
Hezbollah’s estimated casualties in the battles in Syria range from a few hundred to some 3,000 killed and 4,000 wounded. A few months ago Nasrallah formed a Christian battalion. He is trying to recruit Palestinians from refugee camps to fight in Syria for $400 a month, and is also recruiting Shi’ite youngsters who were not previously members of Hezbollah.
At the same time there are reports of weakening discipline in Hezbollah ranks, weapon thefts and a massive transfer of Hezbollah money to European banks. Iran reportedly intends to investigate what happened to the huge financial assistance it has given Hezbollah.
In a speech this week marking the anniversary of Lebanon’s liberation from Israeli occupation, Nasrallah said “our survival is under threat. We have three options – to expand the fighting, to surrender and be slaughtered or to scatter around the world humiliated, going from one Nakba to another,” he said referring to what Palestinians describe as the catastrophe that they experienced with the establishment of Israel.
Despite these desperate words, numerous Lebanese civilians fear that Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria will turn Lebanon into a battlefield. The Shi’ites, who don’t support Nasrallah, were also enraged when he called Shi’ite leaders who object to involvement in Syria “traitors.” Nasrallah hinted that they serve American interests rather than the national good.
Shortly after Nasrallah’s speech a Twitter account opened under the derisive title “Onward to general mobilization,” in which hundreds of Lebanese citizens tweeted their disgust with Nasrallah’s call to arms. A cartoon likened Nasrallah to the Pied Piper of Hamelin stepping into the sea, with rats — symbolizing his soldiers — following him to their watery death.
For Nasrallah this is indeed a war of survival. If Assad falls, rebel militias will take control of Syria and a civil war is expected to break out, similar to the one in Afghanistan after the end of the Soviet occupation. But even if miraculously a political solution is found, the new regime set up in Syria will undoubtedly settle the score with all those who cooperated with Assad. This is what happened in Iraq after Saddam Hussein’s downfall. Hezbollah will then remain cut off with no military and logistic backing.
Iran also fears this scenario and its leadership is debating whether to continue openly supporting Assad. A nuclear agreement with the world powers could change Iran’s policy vis-à-vis Syria. Iran may then renounce Assad to ensure that the new regime preserves Iran’s influence in Syria and Lebanon.
After signing the nuclear pact, Iran will have to make dramatic strategic decisions that could come at Hezbollah’s expense, unless the latter can prove it can help Assad hold onto power in Syria.
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