Middle East's cold war heats up

With Iran empowered by the demise of its enemies in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is orchestrating a Shi'ite crescent that stretches from Kabul to Beirut. In response, a Sunni axis with US backing is being marshaled - with Pakistan the latest recruit. The proxies of Iran and Saudi Arabia are locking horns all over the region, from Baghdad to Beirut and Gaza, while Washington and Tehran step up military preparations

By Iason Athanasiadis
Asia Times

"TEHRAN - After several months of faint rumblings, a US-led, Middle East-wide alliance of conservative Sunni and secular Muslim states marshaled against Iran is starting to take shape, to the deepening discomfort of the Iranian theocracy. Leading countries in this alliance are Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan......

The new Middle East cold war is being waged on such diverse battlefields as Baghdad, Beirut and Gaza between the proxies of Tehran and Riyadh. In Lebanon, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) is taking covert action against Hezbollah as part of a plan by President George W Bush to help the Lebanese government prevent the spread of Iranian influence. Perhaps in reaction to that, Hezbollah loyalists took to the streets of Beirut on Tuesday and engaged in fighting that led to the deaths of three people.......

This week, the anti-Iranian alliance of Sunni-majority states stretched east to embrace Pakistan as that country's leader journeyed to the Egyptian beach resort of Sharm al-Sheikh for consultations with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. President General Pervez Musharraf was coming from Riyadh, where he vowed to deepen defense and strategic ties with the Wahhabi kingdom. His trip, according to the Saudi-owned, Arabic-language news site Elaph, was intended to "expand the Sunni alliance that includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to include Pakistan as well in order to face the growing Iranian influence in the region"......

A US task force led by the aircraft carrier John C Stennis is on its way to the Gulf, where it will join another carrier. Analysts point out that the two carriers would have a combined capacity to launch around-the-clock bombing raids. The Pentagon is reportedly considering hitting 24 targets to degrade Iran's nuclear capability and potential for striking back, in case diplomacy fails to resolve the crisis surrounding the Iranian nuclear program.

"An air campaign against Iran of this magnitude would almost certainly include efforts to knock out potential Iranian retaliatory capabilities in the Gulf, such as Iran's array of coastal anti-ship missiles," said White. "Perhaps one new point of emphasis was how difficult such a confrontation could be to end once initiated.".....

"Most actions require extensive lead time, usually for unglamorous activity like logistics," said James Spencer, a Middle East expert specializing in defense and security issues. "Contingency plans usually therefore take the form of identifying a vague concept of operations, and consequently troop numbers, logistic requirements, timelines etc. When the politicians suddenly have their brilliant idea, the file can be opened and the flesh put on the prepared bones with more thoroughness than haste."

In an e-mail titled "Pieces in place for escalation against Iran", retired US Air Force Colonel Sam Gardiner listed the arrival of US military hardware to the region and noted that "the pieces are moving. They'll be in place by the end of February. The United States will be able to escalate military operations against Iran." "