Iran prepared to fight, if necessary

By Ian Bremmer
Asia Times

"......Whatever the case, the well-orchestrated Iranian "surround and seizure" had been planned for some time. It strikes me as a response to the United States holding Iranian diplomats taken in Irbil several months ago - a deliberate and carefully calibrated escalation, with very limited risk for an outbreak of hostilities. Hence the extraordinary and high-level Iranian military presence quickly marshaled to the scene......

The move further confirms that Tehran is not looking for a "diplomatic out". Rather, it is sending a message to the international community that Iran is prepared for a fight if necessary and that its only remaining options are increasingly unpalatable.

The decision to take British (rather than American) hostages suggests that Tehran does not intend to release them immediately (though certainly they will remain safe and well looked after), but rather to use them as leverage for negotiations with British diplomats. The lack of direct channels of negotiations between Iran and the United States would have precluded this option with US soldiers and could have led to significant retaliation against Iran.

The most likely next step is for Iran to demand the release of its captured diplomats, and conceivably of its government property, in Iraqi territory. That's an unlikely outcome. The incident has the capacity to cool significantly British willingness to support efforts at continued negotiations with Iran on the nuclear conflict, as well as end Iranian participation in the broader "contact group" with the United States and Britain (among others) on Iraq......

The importance of that statement, given International Atomic Energy Agency documentation that Iran's nuclear program is progressing, is that it provides greater justification for broader provocative moves against the Islamic Republic and plays into the Israeli argument for the need for an attack.

I still see Israeli security concerns as the most significant driver of any likely military action. A series of Israeli war drills last week, including simulated missile attacks on Israeli urban centers and on the main Tel Aviv power station, are particularly noteworthy......."