The bigger picture

Palestinian strategist Mounir Shafiq predicted current tensions with Iran four years ago. He argues in interview with Amira Howeidy that the balance of power is not in favour of the US or Israel, if only the Arabs would listen

Al-Ahram Weekly

".....It is his unique Islamic, pan-Arab, Marxist and Maoist background that made Shafiq's analytical and strategic take on regional and world politics exceptionally profound. He published over 40 books on the Palestinian question, Arab unity, Leninist-Marxist thought, the science of war, Islam, secularism, development and the new world order......

Yet despite this upcoming change in priorities, Shafiq believes it's "inevitable" that the US will attack Iran. Says the strategist: "Decision-making in the US administration is still dominated by the influential Zionist lobby. Attacking Iran is a decision that has been made by the neo-cons and the Jewish state because Tehran is not allowed to possess the ability to enrich uranium, even for peaceful purposes and even if it meets all conditions of the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is simply not allowed. Therefore if Iran doesn't hand over its nuclear programme its nuclear sites at least will be attacked, even if it suspends uranium enrichment."

A war on Iran would be the most dangerous step in the region, he adds, as Iran would retaliate and the war could rapidly expand. "If the US starts a war, it would need to use tactical, or 'precision' nuclear weapons. I would say 50- 60,000 people would get killed. If Iran tolerates this, the US will be defeated because the nuclear bomb's importance lies in its moral rather than physical impact. The entire world will turn against America."

Similarly in Gaza which Israel is threatening to attack to uproot Hamas, the situation is not entirely bleak.

Hamas, he suggests, will win in any confrontation with Israel regardless of the military outcome of the possible incursion Tel Aviv says it will wage. "If Israel does what it says it will do, even Hamas's harshest critics will have to denounce it. And if Hamas withstands the aggression and fights back it will put Israel in a tight corner."

But the Palestinians' greater challenge is not in the besieged Gaza Strip, he warns, but in the West Bank where Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is proceeding in secret negotiations with Israel for a final settlement agreement. Shafiq strongly suspects it involves disarming the resistance, renouncing the Palestinian right of return and recognising Israel's Jewishness. "This is the greater danger we should be aware of and it surpasses anything else in its importance and impact on the future of the Palestinian question.""