By Ehsan Ahrari
Asia Times
"......What is important is that, even though the Hezbollah-Israeli hot war of July-August 2006 is officially over, that war continues. Israel cannot get over the fact that its conventional deterrence - that pretty much established to the Arab world, through the 1967 and 1973 wars, that the Israeli armed forces were invincible - was seriously jeopardized in 2006. The best-equipped forces in the Middle East could not eradicate Hezbollah.
After the ceasefire, neither Hezbollah nor the Israelis has ceased preparations for the next skirmish, except that the next round is likely to be bloodier and more destructive than the one in 2006.....
Translated into the language of high politics, this means that the chances of an outbreak of violence between Hezbollah and Israel are high. Syria and Iran - the real players in this fight - are not about to take on the Israel. But Damascus knows that Israel is itching to get even with Hezbollah. Similarly, Tehran knows that both the US and Israel are eagerly looking for an opportunity to neutralize its nuclear option.
In the high-powered calculations of nation-states - especially major regional actors, which Iran, Syria and Israel are - the promotion of their strategic interests are much too vital to be sacrificed by risking wars. Entities like Hezbollah, on the contrary, are eminently expendable......."
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