Jaw, Jaw or War, War
By WILLIAM S. LIND
".....Intervening powers seldom if ever win Fourth Generation wars militarily, though they may lose them militarily. Rather, if they win, which means they witness the re-emergence of a state, they do so politically.
Here we see what might be called the “Afghan Advantage.” Unlike most Fourth Generation situations, including Iraq, in Afghanistan we face one predominant enemy, the Taliban. That means we have someone to negotiate with who can actually deliver, and can do so on a country-wide scale.....
The situation in Afghanistan is more favorable. If we can make a deal with the Taliban, they can enforce it throughout most of the country. They can speak for the Pashtun, the people with whom we are at war. We can get out without Afghanistan falling back into chaos. The Taliban have shown they can govern, even to the point of shutting down the opium trade......"