What next for the Palestinians?

The presidential term of Mahmoud Abbas will soon expire, but a new election seems unlikely

A Good Comment

Jamal Juma'
guardian.co.uk, Friday October 24 2008

"....Neither player in the West Bank PNA is in a position to run an election campaign now. Abbas, with a divided Fatah might lose the ballot, and if Fayyad is planning a candidacy, he still needs time to prepare. Realistically, it seems pointless to stage elections risking a Palestinian vote for a Hamas representative who does not please Israeli and western interests and would be brought down via sanctions and isolation.....

Fayyad is well placed to succeed in this mission. His leverage on the PNA's funding allows him to ensure that Fatah cadres, regional governors and other position holders depend partially on him for salaries and benefits. Further, the current reform of the Palestinian "security sector" eliminates much of the historical military leadership that arose in the diaspora during the 1970s and 1980s and which remains imbued with national values. Instead, new recruits trained by the CIA are taught a different line. As the Palestinian interior minister reportedly stated: "You are not here to confront Israel, the conflict of Israel has until now led nowhere. You must show the Israelis that you can do the job."

This is not the way to gain Palestinian popular support. Even after his almost daily visits to towns across the West Bank during this summer, US protégé Fayyad holds no more sway with the people than does Qureia, whose name is still linked with the company that provided cement for the Wall.

An alliance of Palestinian leftist parties, so far uninvolved in the power play around the PNA, would probably garner popular support by giving priority to the needs of the people and the principles of the Palestinian struggle. Yet they have so far been unable to concretely unite against the politics of factional interests. Until then, they will remain marginal in the national discussions......

For the international community, the impending demise of legitimate and viable Palestinian structures of representation signals the end of the Annapolis process. With the US administration in election mode and the Israeli prime minister yet to form her cabinet, it seems unrealistic that the promoters of Annapolis will succeed in coercing Palestinians before the end of Abbas's mandate into signing an agreement that reflects Israeli expectations and as a result will not stop the colonisation, fragmentation and isolation of the West Bank and Gaza. Abbas is not Arafat, who enjoyed trust and respect even without elections because of his role in the struggle and his charisma. Any new US or Israeli administration will lack a Palestinian partner with the legal authority or popular backing to sign such an agreement.

For once, it seems time is on the side of the Palestinians, opening up the opportunity to reorder the ranks and define alternatives to the current political setting. A popular force created to shoulder the national responsibilities could build upon the large majority of Palestinians who have been alienated by the current party politics but are not willing to surrender their struggle. It can create national unity by focusing on the one thing missing from the Cairo talks: the struggle against the occupation and Israel's apartheid system of checkpoints, the Wall and settlements. This can lead out of the current political crisis, regenerate the Palestinian struggle, and create a viable national movement. "