Mirage and reality in the Arab Spring

If rebels start using violence, as has happened in Libya, then decades of turmoil could follow, professor argues.

Mark LeVine
Al-Jazeera

".....Revolution or refo-lution?

Lenin's tract argued for a total revolution; but in Tunisia and Egypt the pro-democracy forces succeeded because, as Asef Bayat described in the journal Jadaliyya, the aims during the protests were much closer to refo-lutions, which "want to push for reforms in, and through the institutions of the incumbent states," rather than revolutions that seek completely to topple the system.

The advantage of such a potentially paradoxical process is that they increase the chance for an orderly transition that is relatively free of violence, destruction, terror and chaos. The problem is that they demand constant and long term pressure from below – "the grassroots, civil society associations, labour unions, and social movements" – to succeed.

Once the tap of violence is opened fully, as has happened in Libya, even more problems arise that harm the prospect for successful political transformation across the region.

First, inevitably (it seems), international law becomes reduced to a tool of war-craft rather than being the measuring stick against which all sides must be held accountable. In this case, as the UN approved no-fly zone failed to stop the violence, the Western and Arab "allies" enforcing it have moved to calling for regime change and arming the rebels, both of which clearly exceed the actions authorised by UN Security Council Resolution 1973.

If Security Council resolutions can be ignored or exceeded in Libya, why should other countries, such as Israel, Iran or any other number of states, consider themselves bound by them? And so a noble humanitarian impulse to rein in a brutal dictator, can seriously weaken the institution primarily responsible for maintaining peace, security and stability globally.....

While protesters in Yemen have remained remarkably disciplined, the violence that pervades Yemeni society could easily swallow the pro-democracy movement if only a small minority of the protesters lose faith in the process and take up arms. A similar fate would befall the Bahraini democracy movement if the ever intensifying crackdown against it led even a small number of the protesters to resort to violence in response......"