High stakes gamble

Abbas has bet everything on cooperating with Israel

By Khaled Amayreh
Al-Ahram Weekly

"......Adel Samara is a noted leftist intellectual and economist in the West Bank with no ideological or political affiliation with either Hamas or Fatah. In an exclusive interview with the Weekly, he argues that it is pointless to expect Abbas to talk with Hamas since the man "has lost his free will" to the Americans and the Israelis.

"It is abundantly clear that the Palestinian Authority is acting under the influence of Israel and the United States, and that it has lost its ability to act independently. In fact, Abbas is finding himself in a situation where his very political survival is very much dependent on appeasing Israel and the Bush administration, whereas talking with Hamas, let alone revive the government of national unity, could mean political suicide for him."

Underscoring Abbas's naivety, Samara argued that the Bush administration is only using the Fatah leader as an additional asset to effect American strategic goals in the Middle East. "Israel and the US are only using him to weaken the overall Palestinian national cause. I am worried that by the time he wakes up, the Palestinian cause will have been seriously weakened."

Asked if he thought Abbas was counting too much on the American-sponsored regional peace conference slated to take place in November, Samara said "Abbas is being deceived and duped by Olmert."

"If you want to know true Israeli thinking, don't pay attention to what Olmert says, instead we should pay attention to what (Israeli Defence Minister Ehud) Barak says. And he says he doesn't count much on Abbas."

Samara argued that the present Palestinian crisis is likely to continue for sometime unless the Arab states, especially Egypt and Saudi Arabia, move swiftly to exert real pressure on both sides, especially on Abbas, to reestablish Palestinian unity.

Samara said that Abbas was betting on a Hamas surrender, mainly as a result of the stringent Israeli-western blockade. "I believe that Hamas won't surrender. On the contrary, Hamas seems to be determined to remain steadfast and is itself betting on the disintegration of the Abbas regime, mainly as a result of Abbas's expected failure to extract any meaningful political concessions from Israel."....."