Sunday, April 27, 2008

Iran Says Iraq Situation Makes U.S. Attack Unlikely

Contributed by Uprooted Palestinian

I disagree with the Iranian conclusion.

If and when USrael attacks Iran, it will not be a land invasion, a la Iraq. Instead, it will be a massive and sustained air campaign.

I believe that the sharp rise of oil prices, and the sustainability of those prices, is due in large part to the US (and the rest of western powers, as well as Japan and China) filling up their strategic oil reserves to the brim. When the attack on Iran comes, enough oil will have been stored to keep the major world economies going, even if no Iranian oil is produced for up to a year.

From Al-Manar

"Iran said on Sunday a "disastrous situation" facing the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan coupled with Washington's domestic issues made any U.S. attack on the Islamic Republic unlikely. The Foreign Ministry comments came two days after the U.S. Navy said a cargo ship hired by the U.S. military fired warning shots at approaching boats in the Gulf, underscoring tension in an area vital to world oil shipments, and driving up crude prices.

"We think it would be unlikely the Americans would take the decision to get themselves into a new fiasco, the consequences of which they themselves have acknowledged would be painful for the region and the world," spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said. "We hope those who think better in America view the realities more closely and manage to correct such approaches," he told a news conference.

A U.S. intelligence report in December that said Iran halted a nuclear weapons program in 2003 made any U.S. attack very unlikely, analysts say. Iran denies ever having ambitions to build nuclear weapons. However, its nuclear program is only for peaceful purposes. Last week, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said another Middle East war would be "disastrous on a number of levels". But he added the military option must be kept on the table "given the destabilizing policies of the regime and the risks inherent in a future Iranian nuclear threat -- either directly or through proliferation." "

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