Thursday, May 29, 2008

Syrian talks offer more than hot air


A Good Piece

By Sami Moubayed
Asia Times

".....Second is to free himself from the burden of talking peace with Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas, a man who clearly can no longer deliver. Abbas is no Yasser Arafat (former Palestinian Liberation Organization leader) and cannot pull through with a peace treaty, nor can he control, appease, silence or crush Hamas. Wasting more time and effort on the Palestinian track (as Bush has been urging Olmert to do) is a great turn-off for the Israeli premier.

Engaging the Syrians - even if it doesn't work - is a great excuse to temporarily disengage from the Palestinian track, which is too complicated, with a bundle of thorny issues still unresolved.

Why did Bush transform from "red light" to "orange" without turning on the green light for Olmert? One of the reasons why the US changed course is Syria's participation in the November 2007 Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, Maryland. Syria's willingness to walk that extra mile to Maryland, despite objection from its main ally, Iran, was noted by the Americans. So were a bundle of other Syrian gestures, such as greater security on the Iraqi border, more concrete steps towards supporting the political process in Baghdad, and major steps at combating Islamic fundamentalism in the region......

Shortly after the Syrian-Israeli talks started this time, indirectly though through the Turks, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, met with Khaled Meshaal, the head of the political office of Hamas. Khamenei said, which some observers claim was a message intended for Syria to hear, "The only way to liberate Palestine is through brave resistance. Those who choose another path will be abandoned by God."

Many speculated that if Syrian-Israeli peace ever materializes, left in the dark would be former allies like Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas. The Syrians have strongly stressed, however, that they will not abandon their allies, although logic states that if and when a peace treaty materializes, Syria will have to cease its support for Hamas and Hezbollah.......

The Syrians are now walking a tight rope with the Iranians, wanting to prove that their friendship remains intact but also, stating loud and clear, that all options are still on the table for the Syrians. Iran is not the only ally for Damascus and isolation of the Syrian government has failed. There are the Turks, who are playing a newfound role in the region under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There are the Qataris, who have emerged as Syria's new "best friend" and who brokered the latest consensus between the Lebanese, through around-the-clock consultations with the Syrians.

And regardless of how tense things have been under Bush, there remains a door open to Washington once a new administration comes into power next January.

Many believe that although these latest talks between Syria and Israel will not lead to anything today, since Bush is not interested, they will nevertheless give something to whomever succeeds him at the White House to build on in his (or her) dealings with Damascus.

The peace talks will also help end the isolation imposed on Syria by the Bush White House since 2003. It would drown the nuclear issue, raised recently by the US Central Intelligence Agency, claiming that the Syrians are developing a nuclear reactor with the help of North Korea, prompting the International Atomic Energy Agency to interfere.

Additionally, the peace talks reduce any kind of tension that has been boiling on the Syrian-Israeli front, especially in April when the Israeli Defense Forces carried out its largest maneuver ever on the Golan Heights.

Finally, the talks create a feeling of security both within Syria and in the Arab investment community, where people will be more encouraged to pump money into the Syrian market, anticipating a boom once peace is signed. The Syrians are badly in need of money since the economy is suffering from a shortage of revenue......"

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